Analysis of Current Iron Price Differences in Imported Iron Ore

Analysis of Current Iron Price Differences in Imported Iron Ore

Since the introduction of iron ore ** trading in the pride institutes, the degree of concern has increased, and the hedging of businesses has continued to increase. In addition, the fact that the spot price is hanging upside down has also prompted businesses to keep an eye on their changes. ZhuoChuang Information Technology Co., Ltd. introduced a comparison of the price difference between imported iron ore deadlines to help people pulse my ever-changing market.

1. The price difference between Dalian iron ore ** and port spot price For the direct price difference analysis between the two, we focus on the analysis of the basis price between the port spot and the price of the port, and the later period by strengthening or weakening the basis of the basis. The trend of spot price makes a brief forecast.

We mainly monitor the spot price of PB powder in Shandong port and the daily settlement price of iron ore by Dashizou. In addition, we finally obtained a dry basis of 62% dry basis for the quality of PBF powder. Tax price comparison.

As of last Friday, the price of Shandong Port PB after the premium price was approximately 674.35 yuan per ton, which was 16.3 yuan per ton lower than that at the week, and the settlement price of Dashang ** was 659 yuan per ton, which was lower than that at the beginning of the week. About 14 yuan / ton. The basis price of iron ore ** is RMB 15.35/ton, and the average basis difference between the two is this week is RMB 18.63/ton, which is RMB 7/ton higher than the average basis difference of last week. As a whole, due to the significant drop in the prices of major commercial banks during the week, the settlement price of the main contract fell by RMB 14/t, while the decline in the spot price of the port was small, and the basis shows a strong trend. According to Zhuochuang Information Monitoring, since July 17, 2014, the basis weight of iron ore ** and spot has turned positive, and has remained at a spot premium of RMB 10-20/t. Last week, the Dazhou Stock Exchange reached a record low of 651 yuan/ton.

In the reverse market of **, the absolute value of the spot price-** price is getting farther and farther away from the zero-valued distance, becoming the basis for the stronger. Looking at the overall outlook last week, it was the performance of the stronger base difference. For those who sell hedging, what he is willing to see is the expansion of the base difference. Both the spot price and the price fell, but the spot price fell less than the decrease in the price, and the basis spread widened, which caused dealers to lose more in the spot market due to falling prices than in the market. The profit of the ** contract was bought due to the price drop.

2. The contrast between the current spot price of the port and the spot price of the long-term spot price is long-term upside down, which makes the loss of the spot trade after the operation of the long-term cash trade to the port. However, the situation of the time limit price difference has been changing since entering the month of July. small.

As of last Friday, the price of PB powder outer plate converted to a wet basis including tax was about 671 yuan/ton, down by 10 yuan/ton from last Friday, and the spot price of port was 625 yuan/ton, down from last Friday. At 15 yuan/ton, the spread between the port spot and the price of the port was -46 yuan/ton, which was an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the beginning of the week.

As a whole, the decline in port stocks is larger than the decline in forward stocks, which increases the room for downward price movements in forward stocks. The downtrend of the entire black industrial chain has been established. If the spot market continues to bottom out this week, the overall price center of gravity will oscillate downward and merchants should be more cautious.

3. Analysis of the difference between the internal and external ore prices This week, the price gap between domestic and foreign mines has slightly increased. The price gap between the two has increased by RMB 20/t from last week. The price of imported ore in the Tangshan area was lower than the internal ore price by about RMB 30/t, an increase of 20 from last week. As of the press release, the mainstream price of PB powder in Jingtang Port was 790 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the same period last week; Tangshan 66% iron concentrate powder included 820 yuan/ton in dry basis, which was unchanged from last week. Look, after the conversion of ore basis, the price of imported ore decreased by 30 yuan/ton in domestic mines. The spot price of imported ore ports neared the weekend, but the transaction price kept falling. The willingness of the steel plants to make up the demand on-demand is not strong, and the price of imported ore falls further. The domestic ore market is operating steadily. The main steel mills in Tangshan area began to lower prices of purchased iron powder by 5-10 yuan/ton this week, and some of the market prices began to fall. The internal and external ore prices have started to fall together, and the probability of a steady decline has remained relatively high.

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