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On September 13, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the 2011 Summer Report on China's Industrial Economic Operation. The report said that overcapacity caused by repeated investment in heavy chemical industry in recent years has affected the sustainable and healthy development of industry. At the same time, there are a considerable amount of backward production capacity in many overcapacity industries. To this end, the next step will continue to promote the mergers and acquisitions and industrial chain integration of key industries such as automobiles, steel, non-ferrous metals and building materials, improve the exit mechanism of backward production capacity, and establish and improve the replacement method for backward production capacity in overcapacity industries. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the elimination targets of the “12th Five-Year Plan†backward production capacity of the four major industries, namely, the elimination of 70 million tons of ironmaking, more than 250 million tons of cement, 6 million tons of ferroalloys and 40 million tons during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period. The backward production capacity of coke. Earlier, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has announced the backward production capacity targets of various industries. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is worried that the task of eliminating backward production capacity is relatively large. "In 2011, 10 of the 18 industrial sectors involved in eliminating backward production capacity have a larger target and task than last year. They face resettlement, debt disposal, and local interests. More difficulty and pressure," the report said. However, the reporter learned that although the National Development and Reform Commission has not approved new projects since last year, the local governments generally adopt the same capacity replacement method, or adopt the method of removing the large furnace on the small furnace to increase production capacity. The actual production capacity of various industries is still increasing. At present, the target of the elimination of backward production capacity announced by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in 2011 accounts for almost 1/3-1/2 of the “12th Five-Year Planâ€. Does this mean that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology must complete the task of eliminating backward production capacity targets ahead of schedule, or increase the target. According to people close to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, this conclusion may not be available for the time being. Excessive industry capacity is still growing rapidly According to the data provided by the National Bureau of Statistics and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the industry has been identified as an overcapacity industry by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. For example, in August, steel production was 77 million tons, and the average daily output was 2.48 million tons, an increase of 12.9%. The output of electrolytic aluminum in the month was 10.2 million tons, an increase of 6.8%. Flat glass production was 434 million weight boxes, an increase of 13.8%. The above industries are all overcapacity industries of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. According to a report issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, there are currently overcapacity problems in industries such as steel making, iron making, electrolytic aluminum, coke, cement, and chemical fiber. Zhang Lin told reporters that this year's steel output may exceed 700 million tons, which shows that the central government's worry about the excess of No. 38 in 2009 has already appeared. “At the time, it was said that the potential capacity was 700 million tons, and now the potential capacity is probably over 800 million tons,†she said. The above-mentioned rapid growth in production capacity has led to a rapid decline in the industry's profit margin. For example, from January to July, the main profit margin of the steel industry was only 2.4%, down 0.24 percentage points year-on-year, profit was up 17.1% year-on-year, and the loss was as high as 20%. Yang Wenchun, secretary-general of the Guangxi Ferroalloy Association, pointed out that the ferroalloys and steel industries are closely related. In the case of rising upstream mineral prices and falling prices of downstream products, the products as intermediate industries have been profitable. “The operating rate of ferroalloys is already good at 50%, and many places are produced when there is electricity at night,†he said. It is reported that the flat glass manufacturing industry, which was defined as surplus, achieved a profit of 1.44 billion yuan in August, a decrease of 65.9%. The cement industry realized a profit of 55.8 billion yuan, an increase of 1.6 times. However, a person from the Building Materials Association believes that the actual cement profit may not be so high. For example, Hebei earns 20-40 yuan per ton of cement, and a 10% profit margin is already good. Hong Liang, an analyst of the building materials industry of Galaxy Securities, believes that the profit growth of the cement industry is fast, mainly because the actual production capacity has reached effective control. “The increase in actual production is still far worse than the potential capacity. Cement is still in surplus.†Previously, according to the No. 38 document in 2009, China’s cement production capacity in 2008 was 1.87 billion tons, and the backward production capacity was about 500 million. Tons, plus the cement production line under construction, after all these production capacity is completed, the cement production capacity will reach 2.7 billion tons, while the market demand is only 1.6 billion tons, and the production capacity will be seriously over-capacity. Other electrolytic aluminum production capacity is 18 million tons, accounting for 42.9% of the world, and the capacity utilization rate is only 73.2%. It is very difficult to reduce the replacement. In this regard, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Summer Report pointed out that the next step is to use market-based tools and means to promote structural adjustment, further exert the guiding role of industrial policies, and focus on the adjustment structure. To this end, we will continue to promote the mergers and acquisitions and industrial chain integration of key industries such as automobiles, steel, non-ferrous metals and building materials, improve the exit mechanism of backward production capacity, and establish and improve the replacement methods for backward production capacity in overcapacity industries. Prior to this, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has proposed that in 2011, it will eliminate steelmaking capacity of 26.27 million tons, cement production capacity of 133 million tons, ferroalloy production capacity of 1.857 million tons, and coke production capacity of 19.75 million tons, accounting for 1/3-1/2 of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†elimination target. Not waiting. Among them, the cement industry's capacity elimination target in 2011 exceeded half of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†target. However, this does not mean that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will soon realize the goal of backward production capacity of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†ahead of schedule in two or three years. Yang Wenchun, secretary-general of Guangxi Ferroalloy Association, told reporters that in general, when eliminating backward production capacity, there is very little reduction in production capacity (reduction and replacement), which is generally equivalent replacement or increased production capacity. Over the years, the relevant state departments have been saying that they must guard against overcapacity. However, in many industries such as steel, capacity has expanded from tens of millions to 700 million tons or more. Zhang Lin, of the Lange Steel Information Research Center, believes that the strange circle is that the profitability of companies of different natures is different. For example, the current steel industry is squeezed by the rising price of upstream iron ore and the falling price of downstream steel, but it is interesting that the more large enterprises, especially state-owned enterprises, are producing high-end plates, due to the sluggish industries such as shipbuilding. The benefits of sheet metal are not good; the wire with low technical content, such as rebar for construction, because of the good market, many private small enterprises have very good profits. Whether these enterprises eliminate backward production capacity, the total production capacity will increase. . This has led to potential steel production capacity across the country, which may have reached 8.9 billion tons. “There are no new projects such as steel in the country for 2 years, but the actual production capacity is increasing. The story behind this is that the more backward production capacity is eliminated, the total production capacity will continue to increase.†Zhang Lin said. According to the understanding, the current elimination of backward production capacity has made great progress. In 2011, the target tasks for eliminating backward production capacity in 18 industrial sectors were scheduled to be released on schedule, and have been decomposed and implemented to 2,255 enterprises. Among them, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has increased the regulation and control of some overcapacity industries such as electrolytic aluminum, flat glass and coal chemical industry. However, in the end, many listed companies claimed to have eliminated backward production capacity, and the actual results are still to be investigated.