China's ethylene self-sufficiency rate will reach 92.3% in 2015

China's ethylene industry through the combination of reconstruction, expansion and new construction, sole proprietorship and joint ventures, the rapid increase in production capacity, the rapid expansion of the scale of the device. As of the end of 2010, there were 22 ethylene production enterprises in China and 24 sets of production equipment. The average size of the equipment has increased from 395,000 tons/year in 2005 to 541,000 tons/year, close to the world average level; the national ethylene production capacity has been in 2005. The 7.895 million tons in the year surged to 14.889 million tons in 2010, an increase of 89.4%, surpassing Japan, rising from third place in the world in 2005 to second place. It is expected that in the next five years, China's ethylene industry will continue to promote large-scale, integrated, base, and diversified "quaternization" development, and strive to achieve a new transformation from a big to a strong.

The growth rate of the industry will slow down. During the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, China’s ethylene industry will continue to promote large-scale development through Wuhan Ethylene, Fushun Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical, Yang-Pak Engineering, Shanghai Petrochemical, Sichuan Pengzhou Petrochemical, and Huizhou Ethylene Phase II. Some projects and some coal-to-olefins demonstration projects will be put into production. It is expected that in 2015, China's ethylene production capacity will increase to 21 million to 23 million tons, and in 2020 it will increase to 28 million to 29 million tons, and self-sufficiency will be greatly improved. Domestic self-sufficiency In 2015, it will reach 92.3%, and self-sufficiency in equivalent consumption will increase from 47% in 2010 to 70% to 75% by the end of 2015. The average size of domestic ethylene plants in 2015 will increase from the current 540,000 tons/year to more than 600,000 tons/year. At the same time, the equivalent consumption of ethylene in China will increase to 35 million tons in 2015. During the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, the average annual growth rate of ethylene has slowed down, but it will still maintain the trend of both production and sales at a high level of 11%.

Downstream product diversification During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, China will form a number of world-scale large-scale oil refining bases of over 20 million tons, and the average size of the nation’s oil refining enterprises will reach 6 million tons/year or more. Therefore, China’s ethylene industry is “refining ethylene”. The deep integration of aromatics-power-high-end products has become possible. It is expected that in the future construction and development of the ethylene industry in China, attention will be paid to the adjustment of the downstream product structure to the development of high-end products. In the future, new processing plans for ethylene and aromatic products with extended industrial characteristics will be encouraged, research and production of comprehensive utilization and deep processing of carbon 4, carbon V and carbon 9 by-product resources will be strengthened, and production and development of organic raw materials and synthetic fiber monomers that are in short supply in China will be developed. Production of various types of high-end polymer, resin-specific materials, ABS resin, and special rubber, improving the international competitiveness of polyethylene, polypropylene, and ethylene glycol, and promoting the high-end of general-purpose synthetic rubber (styrene-butadiene rubber/butadiene rubber) modified. At the same time, it will comprehensively upgrade the production technology of organic materials downstream of ethylene, strengthen green processes, expand the production capacity of indiscriminate products, and strive to increase the scale of equipment single-series. Due to the optimization of raw materials, the construction of integrated refinery equipment, and the expansion of the scale of equipment, it is expected that the ethylene yield will increase from the current 31% to more than 33% during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period.

It is worth mentioning that with the further entry of foreign-funded enterprises and the successive completion and commissioning of China-foreign joint venture projects, the foreign-owned equity production capacity in China will further increase. At the same time, in addition to Sinopec, PetroChina, and CNOOC, some domestic peer companies and coal chemical companies will also build new capacity. As a result, the future pattern of diversification of the domestic ethylene industry operating entities will further develop, but the three major companies will still play a leading role.

Further improvement of the technical level With the rapid increase in the production capacity of ethylene in China, it will be increasingly difficult to rely on the production of domestic refinery equipment to meet the demand for ethylene raw materials. In the future, China’s imports of ethylene feedstocks such as naphtha and light hydrocarbons will further increase, and will use the light resources of oil and gas fields as much as possible to expand the system as much as possible and provide internal supply to meet supply. At the same time, with the development of China's emerging coal chemical industry under the support of the state, it will develop steadily and in an orderly manner. China will develop demonstration projects of coal-based methanol to olefins, coal-based ethylene glycol, etc. Several projects will be completed and put into operation in places where conditions permit. To ease the strain on domestic ethylene raw materials. In addition, some coastal enterprises will also try to take the path of importing methanol to olefins or heavy oil pyrolysis to produce olefins. On the whole, China's ethylene raw materials will further develop toward the diversification of lightweighting, gasification, and import sources.

In the future, China’s ethylene industry will closely follow and absorb foreign advanced technologies, while further improving its own technology and equipment levels and localization rates, and strive to achieve the localization of one million tons of ethylene complete sets of technical equipment and increase the development of catalysts. Localization efforts, efforts to reduce the "three doses" cost.

Import Pressure and Challenges Increasing With abundant and cheap natural gas raw materials, the Middle East has now become the most concentrated area for the world’s ethylene industry investment. In 2010, the Middle East’s new production capacity exceeded 4.5 million tons, and the total ethylene production capacity reached 23.6 million tons. The cost advantage has made the ethylene and derivative production equipment in the Middle East very competitive. In addition, many installations in the Middle East are joint ventures with multinational corporations and generally have large-scale installations and high technology levels, which have obvious international competitive advantages. However, due to the small capacity of the Middle East market, 80% of its newly added capacity is for overseas markets. In 2010, the export volume of ethylene and its derivatives in the Middle East reached 19 million tons, of which nearly 4 million tons are exported to Europe and more than 15 million tons are exported to Asia Pacific. area. China has become the most important target exporter in the Middle East. This will surely pose serious problems for our related products. To this end, China's ethylene companies must speed up structural adjustments, enhance their international competitiveness, and actively respond to challenges.

It is worth noting that in recent years, due to the rise and successful development of unconventional natural gas, the US ethylene industry has also won the favor of a group of multinational petroleum and petrochemical companies, and a number of ethylene renovation and expansion plans have been implemented or emerged. As raw material prices are lower than Europe and Asia and have technological advantages, the future of the US ethylene industry will also constitute a certain degree of influence on the Chinese market.