Falling house prices will affect 50 industries such as steel hardware

Of the 35 cities monitored by the China Index Academy, the transaction volume of the 26 property markets fell year-on-year, with more than 70% of the city's property market volume falling year-on-year, with 7 cities trading volume falling by more than 50%, of which Changsha had the largest year-on-year drop, reaching 76.43%. . Among the major cities, Shenzhen has the largest decline, reaching 61.22%.

According to statistics from Beijing Real Estate Transaction Management Network, in October (as of the 30th), the total number of second-hand residential properties in Beijing was 8,750, compared with the same period last year, with turnover falling by nearly 50%.

On October 28, the Beijing Municipal Development and Reform Commission lowered the intermediary fees for second-hand housing transactions for the first time in 14 years. From August 31 onwards, the fee limit for second-hand housing agency fees has been adjusted from the current 2.5% to 2%. At the same time, the charge of transfer, charge d'affaires**, and check-in for house will be capped at 1,000 yuan. For this New Deal, some real estate insiders and Centaline Real Estate, Chain Home Real Estate and many other intermediary companies agreed that although the rapid rise in house prices caused second-hand housing transaction fees to move between 560,000 or even more than 100,000 yuan, but the agency fee standard The reduction still cannot change the current situation of shrinking second-hand housing transactions in Beijing.

According to the latest data from Hanyu Real Estate Market Research Department, transaction volume of second-hand housing transactions in Shanghai in October dropped by 24% year-on-year, and leasing turnover also dropped by about 20% year-on-year. Fu Wei, manager of Hanyu Real Estate Market Research Department, said that the volume of second-hand housing transactions in the city in October is likely to fall below 10,000 units, which will be the worst October since 2008.

Not only was the volume of second-hand housing sales falling sharply, but transactions in first-hand homes also ended in bleak results. Some large-scale housing developers chose to promote sales because they couldn't stay. In general, the emergence of an inflection point is a process. First, the sales volume shrinks, then the price drops significantly, and finally the investment changes. Now, the transaction volume has shrunk dramatically, and the promotion of house prices has also been spread by small and medium-sized housing enterprises to large-scale waivers.

Zhong Jianxin analyst Xue Jianxiong believes that the reason why these large-scale developers took the lead in lowering prices is not to win "life-saving money," but that they have no luck with policies and the market and tend to seize market opportunities. In particular, China Shipping Real Estate has experienced the downturn in the property market during the financial crisis in Hong Kong and it is more important to take the lead in lowering prices.

Jin Mo network CEO Luo Baihui said that China's real estate is limited by the purchase order, ** tightening and other effects, it is likely to appear in the 2012 Spring Festival downturn turning point, and then on steel, hardware, building materials and other 50 upstream and downstream industries have an impact.

Yang Xiezhen, Chairman of Xinjian Hardware, said that there is not much effective demand in the property market. Some people have limited loans. Some people are restricted purchases. People who are really qualified to buy and get some ** from the bank are not many. These people There is still part of it waiting to see.

In the winter when the market is quietly approaching, the market predicts that the property market will continue to shrink in the 4th quarter of 2011, the price will stop rising, and the price reduction project will continue to increase significantly. In fact, the inflection point of housing prices is gradually approaching. As the Chinese government continues to maintain its control over real estate, the decline in real estate prices in the country continues to widen.

According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in October of this year, compared with the previous month, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, there are 34 cities that have fallen in price, and there are 20 cities that are flat. In terms of second-hand housing, compared with September, there was an increase of 13 cities in the month-on-month decrease in October.

In addition to government regulation, the huge stock of land reserves in the real estate market also affects the price changes in the coming years. China’s Ministry of Land and Resources disclosed the data of unlaunched land for the first time this month. It is reported that as of October 2011, the country's unconstructed land for real estate was approximately 213,000 hectares, of which 165,000 hectares were for residential use; 455,000 hectares of land had not been completed for real estate, including 355,000 hectares of residential land. Potentially unlaunched land continues to pressure the price of real estate and will also lead to further real estate price adjustments.

Whether it is the market, the government, or the researchers, it seems that they have all voiced the voice that house price regulation is not yet in place. As for the worst case, Liu Chongkang, a former leader of the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC), had spoken on a financial summit held in Beijing. Assuming that the worst happened, that is, house prices fell by 50%, and bank credit would still not be a problem.

Regarding the price drop in the real estate market, the Institute of Economic Research of Renmin University of China released the report “Analysis and Forecast of China's Macroeconomics 2011-2012” last Saturday. The overall adjustment of the real estate market has yet to emerge. The report believes that the current real estate market is in a stage of accelerated deterioration, and partial adjustment and internal adjustment of the real estate market are still the mainstream of the four quarters of 2012.

However, the ability of local governments to withstand falling housing prices may be lower than the CBRC’s estimates. Because both the local finance and the local government's platform are tightly tied to the future income from land sales and real estate development.

Liu Yuanchun, deputy dean of the School of Economics at Renmin University of China, pointed out in the aforementioned report that the real estate market will not be subject to a “collapse-like decline” because local finance and macroeconomics cannot tolerate a 25% decline in real estate prices, which predicts next year’s China. The real estate market price will not drop by more than 25%.

Affected by the drop in real estate prices, the Chinese steel industry has approached the harsh winter earlier than real estate. Steel is connected to steel for real estate construction, and it is connected with housing renovation and home appliance procurement, automobiles, motorcycles, fuels and spare parts, machinery and equipment, household appliances and electronic products, hardware, furniture and interior decoration materials, etc. Regulations affect the decline in demand.

Against the backdrop of the declining steel prices, Baosteel recently introduced the price policy in December. All steel prices have been significantly reduced, with a drop ranging from 150 yuan to 400 yuan per ton. Jin Monet CEO Luo Baihui believes that before the introduction of a better macro-control policy, continuing to blindly expand steel production will inevitably lead to oversupply, which constitutes another negative factor for the current sluggish steel market.