Forecast of Flat Glass Market Demand in the Early Twelfth Five-Year Plan Period

Professor Zhao Fei Senior Engineer, China Registered Asset Appraiser, Registered Consulting Engineer, currently Assistant Dean of Nb Glass Industrial Design and Research Institute, Executive Director of China Building Glass and Industrial Glass Association, Expert in glass industry technical economy and market forecasting, has long been engaged in glass Worked in engineering consulting with the building materials industry, chaired more than 500 various types of consulting reports, and published more than 30 professional academic papers at home and abroad.

“Eleventh Five-Year Plan” is a historical period in which the development of the flat glass industry in China is good and fast. The total output of flat glass increased from 414 million weight boxes in 2006 to 660 million weight boxes in 2010, an average annual increase of 11.88%, for 21 consecutive years. Annually ranked first in the world, accounting for more than 50% of global production. Float glass production line increased from 140 at the end of 2005 to 240 at the end of 2010, with an average annual increase of 20 production lines; the proportion of high quality float glass increased from 23%. To 35%; glass deep processing rate increased from 25% to about 40%.

Great progress has been made in new glass production technology equipment and market development. The process technology, finished product rate, and total output of crystalline silicon solar cell ultra-white cover glass have rapidly risen to the world's leading level, effectively supporting the solar industry in China and even the world. The explosive development of the year; the core technology and equipment of ultra-white TCO substrate glass for thin-film solar cells, the core technology and equipment for ultra-thin float glass for TN-LCD and STN-LCD have been successfully realized in China; 4.5-generation TFT- The use of ultra-thin borosilicate glass substrates for LCDs successfully went offline; the first 600-ton/day oxy-fuel fired high-quality float glass production line was successfully put into operation, creating a new situation for energy saving and emission reduction in the flat glass industry.

Overall judgment of the "Twelfth Five-Year" Plane Glass Market Although China's economy and society have made remarkable achievements in development during the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, on the whole China still belongs to the developing countries. The uneven development of the regional economy is still outstanding. During the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, the country will continue to increase investment in improving people's livelihood, infrastructure construction, development in the central and western regions, and strategic emerging industries. Judging from the macroeconomic situation of the country, industrial policies, the development trend of related industries (building and decoration, real estate, automobiles, transportation, solar energy, etc.) and the level of industry technology and equipment, the demand for the flat glass market during the "12th Five-Year Plan" period will remain Maintain an annual growth rate of 8% to 10%.

According to preliminary statistics, by the end of April 2011, about 246 float glass production lines have been built in the country, and the average daily melting capacity is close to 550 tons per day, of which about 30 are suspended due to cold repairs and other reasons, and about 216 of the actual operations are performed. .

Analysis of Market Growth Factors in the Initial Stage of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” The construction industry and real estate industry are the main market forces that drive demand for flat glass.

1. The newly started area and completed area of ​​urban commercial housing still maintained rapid growth.

According to statistics from the China Real Estate Research Institute, China now accounts for 50% of the world's total new housing. In 2010, the country's investment in real estate development totaled 4.8267 trillion yuan, an increase of 33.20% over the same period of the previous year, of which commercial housing completed investment of 3,043.8 billion yuan, an increase of 32.90% over the same period of last year, accounting for 70.50% of real estate development investment; and cumulative total area of ​​new commercial housing projects nationwide was 1.638 billion square meters. m, a year-on-year increase of 40.70%; the cumulative area of ​​commercial housing sales was 1.043 billion square meters, a year-on-year increase of 10.10%.

For a period of time in the future, the country’s infrastructure investment will grow steadily. Although real estate control policies will continue, the construction of government-protected housing will further expand. As the urbanization process accelerates, disposable income increases, and residents' residential consumption escalates, the consumer base of commodity housing remains solid, and the demand for the development of the real estate industry will continue to rise. The flat glass industry still has room for growth.

2. During the renovation of newly purchased commercial housing, second-hand housing and existing housing, the use of glass decorations and glass furniture has increased significantly.

3. The new commercial houses in the county and county-level cities have all started to use insulating glass, which has greatly stimulated the market demand for flat glass.

4. Large-scale public buildings, office buildings, hotels, commercial facade houses, commercial windows, and interior decorations quickly brought about a market demand for more than 8 mm thick glass.

5. The prosperity of the glass furniture market requires the extensive use of thick glass and super thick glass of 15 mm or more.

6. The country vigorously promotes urbanization and urbanization, and the construction of small and medium-sized cities, counties, and small towns is developing rapidly.

7. Farmers have also started to use flat glass on their own to build houses, and farmers in self-built houses in economically developed areas have begun to use hollow glass.

8. The use of flat glass in various types of industrial plants is increasing.

The rapid development of the automobile industry has produced a strong push for the consumption of high-quality float glass.

Since 2000, China's auto industry has maintained a compound annual growth rate of around 20%. In 2009, the automobile production and sales volume increased significantly year-on-year, driven by tax incentives for automobile consumption and automobile to the countryside. On October 20th, 2009, China became the third country after the United States and Japan to produce 10,000 cars per year, and officially entered the ranks of 10 million automobile production countries. The annual automobile production and sales volume exceeded 13 million vehicles, becoming a global production and sales company. The first country. At the end of 2010, China's auto production was 182.6999 million units, with sales of 18,061,900 units. Production and sales volume continued to grow.

According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, as of the end of 2010, the number of China’s civilian vehicles was 90.86 million, an increase of 19.30% from 2009. The number of cars per 1,000 people is 65, and there is still a big gap between the average level of 800 cars per 1,000 people in the developed countries. In addition, a large number of small and medium-sized towns and rural consumer markets have not been activated, and huge purchasing potential will become a pull. With the rapid growth momentum of China's auto industry, it is expected that the auto industry will continue to show a good growth momentum in the coming years, and it will certainly boost the rapid growth of automotive safety glass.

The rapid development of the information industry has created a huge market demand for ultra-thin glass.

1. China has become a major producer of TN-LCD and STN-LCD, and the demand for 0.5-1.1mm float glass is growing rapidly.

2. OLED's rapid growth in shipments in recent years, the market outlook can not be ignored, but also a greater role in promoting the demand for ultra-thin float glass.

3. Domestic high-generation TFT-LCD panel production lines have been put into production one after another, and the production of alkali-free ultra-thin glass required in the country has just begun.

At present, there are more than 70 ITO conductive film glass production lines in China. The annual output of various conductive glass is about 40 million square meters. The market demand for ultra-thin glass substrates for liquid crystal displays exceeds 80 million square meters. According to experts in the information industry, China's TN-LCD and STN-LCD will maintain a high growth rate of more than 10% for the next 10 years. Therefore, the LCD industry will continue to have a driving effect on the market demand for ultra-thin glass in China.

In sharp contrast to the huge market capacity, the production capacity of domestic ultra-thin glass substrates is very limited, and most of the ultra-thin glass substrates consumed in the domestic market still rely on imports. At present, only a few companies are able to use the float process to mass produce steadily 0.7 to 1.1 mm of ultra-thin float glass. Therefore, during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, ultra-thin float glass and ultra-thin non-alkali glass all have broad market development space.

The rapid development of the solar energy industry has a promising future. It is a super strong driving force for the flat glass market to grow.

China is a country with a severe shortage of energy resources per capita. Developing the solar energy industry is an important way for China to achieve social and economic sustainability. China has successively developed two major types of solar power generation systems. The first category is photovoltaic power generation systems, which can be further divided into crystalline silicon (monocrystalline silicon and polysilicon) photovoltaic power generation, thin films (amorphous silicon, copper indium gallium selenide, cadmium telluride). Photovoltaic power generation; the second category is a large-area collector solar power generation system. The related situation of crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells and ultra-white glass is roughly 1 to 2 square meters of tempered ultra-white rolled glass per 100 watts; the connection between thin-film photovoltaic cells and ultra-white glass is roughly every 40 to 50 watts. The use of ultra-white TCO glass 1 square meters; solar collector system requires a large number of high-quality ultra-white float glass manufacturing condenser mirror, installed per megawatt of desert power station needs 10,000 square meters of ultra-white glass reflector.

Exports maintain growth momentum to stimulate demand As international energy prices continue to rise, labor costs continue to increase, and the use of a new generation of Chinese float glass technology has been able to stably produce high-quality float glass that meets international quality, so in recent years, the original float glass in China Both glass and processing glass exports have maintained rapid growth. In addition, many developing countries have invested heavily in infrastructure construction and have also imported large quantities of float glass and various types of deep-processed glass from China.

Industrial policies and regulations have a positive impact on the glass market Energy conservation and emission reduction has become a basic national policy in China. The State and relevant ministries and commissions have successively promulgated the "Energy Conservation Law of the People's Republic of China", "The Cleaner Production Promotion Law of the People's Republic of China", "The People's Republic of China Circular Economy Promotion Law," "The State Council's Decision on Strengthening Energy Conservation Work," and "Long-Term Energy Conservation “Special Plan”, “Notice on Strengthening Energy Conservation Evaluation and Review of Fixed Asset Investment Projects”, “Interim Measures for Clean Production Audit”, “Outline of China's Energy Saving Technology Policy”, “Administrative Regulations for Energy Saving of Civil Buildings” and “Energy Conservation Quality of Civil Construction Projects” "Supervision and Management Measures," "Design Standards for Energy Efficiency of Residential Buildings in Hot Summer and Cold Winter Zones," and "Regulations for the Management of Building Safety Glass," and a series of laws and regulations. The implementation of these industrial policies must be tempered glass, laminated glass, insulating glass, Low- E The market development of processed glass with safety, energy saving and environmental protection features, such as hollow glass, vacuum glass, and Sun-E glass, brings extremely broad prospects.

The improvement of China's float glass technology will provide technical support for the development of the flat glass industry.

Currently using a new generation of Chinese float glass technology not only can produce automotive glass, mirror-grade glass, but also can produce 0.5 to 1.1 mm ultra-thin glass, 25 mm thick glass, online low-e glass. As the main equipment and materials of the new generation of float glass technology in China have been localized, the investment is much lower than the float glass production line using foreign technology, which will provide strong technical support for the steady and healthy development of the flat glass industry.

The implementation of some major national economic development strategies is conducive to the healthy and rapid development of the glass industry.

The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” Outline proposes to speed up the building of a new socialist countryside, cultivate and develop strategic emerging industries, accelerate the technological transformation of enterprises, comprehensively improve the level of informatization, promote a new round of large-scale development of the western region, and fully revitalize the old industrial bases in the northeast region. We will vigorously promote the rise of the central region, actively support the development of the eastern region, increase the support for the old districts, ethnic minority areas, frontier regions, and impoverished areas, and continuously upgrade the quality and level of urbanization. The implementation of these major strategic measures will greatly promote the expansion of the glass market to small and medium-sized cities, small towns, and rural areas, effectively stimulating the consumption demand of the glass market in the central and western regions, and become the main driving force for the growth of the glass market during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period.

In the early period of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, there were mainly the following factors that restricted the development of the glass market. First, the prices of raw materials and fuels rose, causing flat glass companies to face great cost pressures; second, the adjustment of the national monetary policy may be against the real estate industry. The growth rate will have an impact. Third, the construction of float glass production lines in developing countries may have an impact on the export of flat glass in China. Fourth, the pace of joint restructuring in the industry is not fast enough, and the degree of production concentration needs to be further improved.