Germany cuts subsidies and increases the photovoltaic industry

The global photovoltaic industry, which has just revived due to the subsidy policy and the peak season, has recently fallen into a quagmire under the impact of the growing European debt crisis. To add insult to injury, it is reported recently that the German government may implement a higher-than-expected downward adjustment of solar subsidies in January next year. This will undoubtedly give the Chinese PV companies that rely heavily on the German market a head start, a major industry reshuffle. Almost inevitable.

Germany wants to cut back on subsidies

Due to the uncertainty of the world's largest PV installation market in Germany and the uncertainty of the second largest PV market in Italy, the PV installation in Europe was almost stagnant from January to May this year. The installed capacity dropped sharply and the component prices plummeted.

However, with the dust of the subsidy policy settled in June, the photovoltaic industry has a rare respite, and the growth momentum of installed capacity is almost equal to the same period last year.

The data shows that in the two months of June and July this year, only about 1.25GW of PV installations were achieved in the German market, which is even higher than the sum of the previous five months.

However, this unexpected growth rate has caused concern in relevant departments. News from the government level suggests that this will lead to a 15% subsidy reduction in Germany in January next year, which is 6% more than previously planned.

After a highly controversial subsidy cut last year, the German government changed its plan to allow periodic reviews and cuts to help deal with falling prices for solar panels. In June of this year, due to the unsatisfactory installation of 700MW in the first half of the year, the German government had retracted the plan to reduce subsidies in the middle of the year and once again promoted the market to prosper.

However, the unexpected increase in installed capacity and the continuous decline in the price of solar photovoltaic cells in recent months have made the German government seem to have regained the momentum to further reduce subsidies.

According to the solar news network data, in the past week, the transaction price of solar polysilicon fell to 380 yuan per kilogram, while the price of mainstream polysilicon manufacturers basically maintained at 400 yuan per kilogram; due to the oversupply, the price of solar panels further dropped to 8.3 yuan, the mainstream component manufacturers offer 8.6 yuan per watt. The highest export price is 0.85 euros per watt and the lowest is 0.77 euros.

Another reason to cut subsidies is the debt crisis. Experts pointed out that due to the European debt crisis and the US national debt crisis exposing the instability of the global economy, international trade will also face great uncertainty in this context, and China's photovoltaic industry is precisely one of the industries most dependent on international trade. .

Obviously, if this rumor of subsidy cuts is finally confirmed, it means that the PV market may fall back to a low tide after it has been hot for less than two months. According to the industry, this latest news will likely cause industry concerns and lead other European countries to follow suit, thereby further aggravating industry instability.

However, the reduction in the subsidy rate referred to in the above-mentioned news is still far below the maximum downward adjustment of 24%. For photovoltaic companies, this may be a blessing in the unfortunate.

The photovoltaic industry is heading for "big fish to eat small fish"

The reporter learned from the industry that although the demand for solar modules in the third quarter has increased, the purchase volume is still difficult to support the balance of production capacity. The industry is more worried that if the purchase volume does not increase significantly in the next two weeks, the industry expects the so-called “rushing tide” in 2011 to be very tense.

“In fact, in the past few years, Chinese PV companies have completed a long process of growth and maturity in an industry in a short period of time, and they have the need for integration and reshuffle. But at present, there are still huge profits in the industry chain. In the future, it is necessary to complete the reshuffle of the entire industrial chain after the decline in profits." A standing director of the China Renewable Energy Society told this reporter.

He believes that any industry will encounter such a stage in the development process, and the photovoltaic industry has shortened the process due to the financial crisis and debt crisis, and the process of shuffling will be particularly cruel.

"In terms of battery components, the top 10 giants can have nearly 20 GW of production capacity. Yingli and Suntech are the forerunners who have established themselves, and with the background of large groups, the scale effect brings cost advantages. The living environment of small enterprises will become increasingly difficult, and it will be normal for big fish to eat small fish," said Zhang Lin, a new energy analyst at Great Wall Securities Research Institute.

It is understood that during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, the government will focus on supporting key photovoltaic enterprises. At the end of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", one or two 50,000-ton-class polysilicon enterprises will be formed, and two to four 10,000-ton polysilicon enterprises will be formed. 5GW solar cell companies, 8-10 GW-class solar cell companies; 3-4 PV special equipment companies with annual sales revenue of over 1 billion yuan.

Overseas, three US PV companies have gone bankrupt in the past month, and a brutal reshuffle has arrived.

It is worth noting that Germany is currently planning to launch a large-scale plan in Greece to install solar photovoltaic systems in Greece, so that the Greeks can use solar energy, the total cost of the plan is 20 billion euros. The plan is said to convert the inexhaustible solar energy into energy and store it through a photovoltaic system, and then export the electricity produced to Western European countries.

The industry believes that this move can be described as a double-edged sword, which can alleviate the pressure of the Greek debt crisis, improve local employment and boost the economy, and reshape the confidence of PV practitioners. However, under the severe debt crisis, how to achieve the plan remains to be seen.