Iron and Steel Weekly: Steel overhauls expanded, iron ore prices fell below last year's October lows

The maintenance of steel plants continues to expand and it is expected that the average daily average crude steel production will be 7.6%.

As the loss of steel mills expands and maintenance continues to increase, according to my steel survey of 395 blast furnaces at 163 steel mills nationwide (covering 80% of total production), as of August 3, 58 blast furnaces have been overhauled.

My steel is expected to repair and limit the impact of daily average output of 145,900 tons of hot metal, we estimate that the impact on average daily output of crude steel is about 7.6%.

Last week, the price of raw materials for steel prices continued to fall. Iron ore prices fell below the lows of last October. National steel and raw material prices continued to fall last week. CCM prices fell below the low of US$116/tonne last October. Mine 61.5%, CFR). We estimate the current gross profit of rebar/hot-rolled/cold-rolled ton steel (taking into account the raw material inventory for 4 weeks) to be -125/-327/-361 respectively. We expect steel prices and raw material prices are expected to stabilize by the end of August if steel mills reduce production overhauls for some time and improve supply.

Dealer stocks continued to decline slightly, while high steel mill stocks still pose pressure on steel prices Dealer stocks continued to show a slight decrease on a week-on-week basis last week. We think this is mainly due to the fact that traders are pessimistic about the expected pessimistic replenishment sentiment of steel prices. The current distributor inventory is still 10% higher than the level of the same period of last year. In addition, we expect the steel stocks of steel mills that have continued to climb will also exert pressure on steel prices in the short term.

Individuals with a preference for the West and ROE are expected to rise significantly. The steel sector rose by 1.2% last week. The CSI 300 Index rose by 0.2%. We believe that the high supply and demand off-season will restrain the rebound of steel prices, maintain the industry’s “neutral” view, and be relatively optimistic about the western region and ROE is expected to significantly improve the company. It is recommended that Bayi Steel, Baosteel Co., Ltd., and Daye Special Steel benefit from the mid- and long-term domestic economic transformation and manufacturing upgrading.