July 16 Steel Quotes

In June, China's crude steel production was 64.66 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%. International oil prices continued to rise, and the 19th refined oil price adjustment window or welcomed the largest increase. Hebei's efforts to rectify pollution in the province's enterprises have increased significantly, and Yusancheng's small and medium concentrators have reduced or stopped production.

[Hot Spot Guide]

● GDP in the second quarter increased 7.5% year-on-year and 7.6% in the first half

According to preliminary calculations, the gross domestic product in the first half of the year was 2489.0 billion yuan, which was calculated at a comparable price and increased by 7.6% year-on-year. Among them, the growth rate was 7.7% in the first quarter and 7.5% in the second quarter. In terms of sub-industries, the primary industry added value was 1,822.2 billion yuan, up 3.0%; the secondary industry was 1,1703.7 million yuan, up 7.6%; the tertiary industry was 1,123.5 billion yuan, up 8.3%. From a quarter-on-quarter perspective, GDP grew by 1.7% in the second quarter.

Interpretation: In the first half of the year, China’s economic growth rate was 7.6%, which further forced the annual target level set at the beginning of the year to 7.5%. However, the downward pressure on the economy in the second half of the year remains severe, but a series of steady growth policies at the decision-making level, such as accelerating the shantytowns transformation and Under measures such as promoting information consumption, the probability of economic stalls is small, and the bottom fluctuations in the future are still the main features.

●In June, the daily average output of crude steel fell by 0.3% compared with the previous period of 2.155 million tons

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's crude steel production in June was 64.66 million tons, an increase of 4.6% year-on-year. The average daily production of crude steel for the month was 2.155 million tons, down 0.3% from the previous month, and it fell for the second consecutive month, but it was still at a historical high. From January to June, the cumulative crude steel output was 389.87 million tons, an increase of 7.4% over the same period of last year. In the first half of the year, the average daily output of crude steel was 2.154 million tons. Based on this level, the estimated annual crude steel production is expected to reach 786 million tons. From January to June 2013, the national steel output was 516.96 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%. Among them, the national steel production in June was 90.84 million tons, an increase of 7.2% year-on-year.

Interpretation: In the off season of steel consumption, the daily output of crude steel in China is still at a high level. In the case of excess production capacity, steel price growth momentum is weak. In August, Baosteel’s steel price, which is a benchmark, appeared in a flat position and ended. In the first two months of the downward adjustment, the price of building materials in the Shahe River in August also increased by 80-120. Fubao Information believes that with the continuous decline of steel stocks, steel prices have experienced a half-year decline or come to an end. The near-term will be consolidation of the consolidation phase of the chassis, which is a traditional peak season for the steel market. The country is expected to introduce favorable policies to promote steel consumption. As a result, the possibility of a rebound in steel prices at the end of the period is more likely.

【related news】

● The No. 19 refined oil price adjustment window or welcomed the largest increase since early July. Affected by the turmoil in Egypt and the favorable economic data from developed countries in Europe and America, international oil prices continued to rise. New York WTI oil prices rose by 9.7% from the end of June, and Brent’s oil price rose. Up to 6.5%, analysts pointed out that refined oil products may usher in the largest increase since the implementation of the new pricing mechanism on March 19. The rate of increase will be about 200 yuan per ton, and the highest price will be 300-350 yuan per ton.

● Hebei’s efforts to strengthen pollution control in the province’s enterprises have increased. In recent days, Tangshan Iron and Steel Enterprises has received a “Circular on Implementation of Pollutant Reduction Measures for Heavy Air Pollution Days” from the Environmental Protection Agency, requesting heavy pollution in the steel, cement, and cement industries. Coking, electricity, and other related companies must adopt measures to limit production and stop production when air pollution occurs in Tangshan City to reduce air pollution. According to the reporter’s understanding, in the previous environmental thorough investigation, the main problem that was found in Tangshan’s iron and steel enterprises was that 52 sets of 125 sintering machines were not lifted*, 31 steel mills were not environmentally friendly, and 35 steel companies polluted. has a problem. Relevant persons pointed out that since the beginning of the environmental protection storm in Hebei Province, the operating rate of blast furnaces in the Tangshan region has remained stable at a relatively high level (more than 90%). Currently, there is still room for profits for steel mills, which has led companies to perfunctory over environmental protection rectification.

● Yusancheng Mineral Concentrator has stopped production Due to sluggish demand for steel, the production and operation of the mining enterprises is in awkward situation. Now, the estimated output of the small and medium-sized concentrators is reduced by more than one-third. Although Jinling Mining's revenue for the first quarter of this year increased by 19.26% year-on-year, net profit fell from 36.9137 million to 24,367,300, a drop of 33.99%. In response to the sluggish steel situation, some companies are trying to inject iron ore resources into listed companies. However, under the circumstances that iron ore earnings have fallen sharply, some of them have already failed in their asset injection plans.

[Summary]

On July 15, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 19.96 points to close at 15,484.26 points, or 0.13%; the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 7.41 points to close at 3,607.49 points, or 0.21%; the S&P 500 Index rose 2.32 points. It closed at 1,682.51 points, an increase of 0.14%. On the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the price of light crude oil for August delivery rose by 0.32 US dollars to close at 106.4 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.3%. The price of gold for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) Commodity Exchange (COMEX) rose by $5.90 to close at $1,283.50 per ounce, or 0.5%. The US dollar index rose by 0.1 to 83.04, or 0.12%. The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper futures fell 14 US dollars to close at 6,929.25 US dollars, a decrease of 0.2%.

【Market Analysis】

On July 15, the period 01 opened higher and opened 3666. During the day, it oscillated around the 3660 platform. The highest was 3694, the lowest was 3659, and the closing was 3661, up 6 or 0.16%. The capital was average. The trading volume was slightly larger than the previous day, and the position increased by 2.3. Millions of hands. Technically, the high level of the Japanese K-line oscillates negatively and its pattern has weakened. The KDJ index oscillated; the MACD indicator was still operating strongly. Spot stable and strong operation. In operation, both long and short sides operate at high-band, paying attention to pressure of 3680 and support of 3630. During the expected period, the screw is highly volatile and has a general impact on the spot market.

[steel market dynamics]

● Ores: On the 15th, the iron ore market operated smoothly. In terms of the Platts index, the index rose by 1 US dollar/ton yesterday and is now 62% by the Australian powder index at 129 US dollars/ton. During yesterday's trading session, Snails opened with high volatility and lacked upward strength. The turnover of finished steel products also slowed down. In the afternoon, the steel billet also stabilized, and the import ore market waited for the sentiment to resume. Although the merchants shipped actively, the steelmakers were cautious in accepting orders. It is expected that the imported ore will rise weakly. Shandong port can now trade reference price pb powder 860-870, Yang Di 780-790, Super special 760 or so, special powder 770, Mike 850 or so. Domestic mines only supplemented by steel companies in the Hebei Hanxing area led to a narrow rise in market prices. At present, the market demand side bids are lower than market expectations, mining companies around the country are reluctant to sell at low prices, and the trading volume is still running at a low level. It is expected that the current ore mine market will easily rise and fall. Now Zunhua 60% coarse 700-710; 66% refined wet basis does not include tax 800-810; 62.5% pellets 920-930; Qianan 66% fine powder wet basis does not include tax 820-830.

● Billet: On the 15th, Tangshan finished material market performed poorly with weak transactions. Some of the specs were discarded in intraday trading. Downstream and traders were cautious about billet procurement. The short-term billet price was stable. After the noon billet held steady, Tangshan Guoyi, Xinglong and other common carbon billets were ex-factory tax-included 3,120 yuan/ton, low-alloy 3,240 yuan/ton, and dealers bare carbon price 3020 yuan/ton; Changli tax-included was sent to Tangshan 3,140 yuan /Ton.

● Coke: 15th Jiexiu secondary metallurgical coke factory tax price 1100-1110 yuan / ton, Yinchuan three metallurgical coke factory tax price 820 yuan / ton, Linyi secondary metallurgical coke factory tax price 1050 yuan / ton, Tangshan secondary metallurgical coke to the factory tax price 1270-1300 yuan / ton, Rizhao secondary metallurgical coke to the factory tax price 1220-1230 yuan / ton, Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke factory tax price 980 yuan / ton, Pingdingshan Secondary metallurgical coke factory tax price 1130-1150 yuan / ton, Huaibei secondary metallurgical coke factory tax price 1300 yuan / ton, Qitaihe secondary metallurgical coke factory tax price 1170-1220 yuan / ton, coke market overall Weak stability, the steel market continued strong and boosted confidence in the market, but Jiaogang Boao still remained stalemate. The short-term market is expected to be dominated by weak stability.

● Building materials: On the 15th, the price of Heshan Steel's Grade 3 earthquake-resistant snails in the Beijing market was 3,460 yuan/ton, which was the same as the previous day. The Shanghai market Zhongtian secondary snails was 3430-3460 yuan/ton, which was the same as the previous day; Guangzhou Guangzhou Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. ranked second class large screw 3580 yuan / ton, up 30 yuan / ton from the previous day.

● Sheets: On the 15th, the closing price of the Shanghai hot market was 3,580-3,620 yuan/ton, which was higher than the previous day's high. The closing price of the hot coil in the Tianjin market was 3510-3520 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan from the previous day. Ton, Lecong hot market closing price of 3750-3760 yuan / ton, up 20 yuan / ton from the previous day.

[today's forecast]

● Building materials: On the 15th, the national building materials were stable and strong. In the second quarter, the economic growth rate further slowed down, and it is expected to reach the standard in the whole year. In addition, the environmental protection storm, the concept of urbanization, and the growth of central government guarantees boosted many bullish factors, and some markets continued to rise. However, the trend of snails was still unstable, coupled with limited demand release during the off-season. , Inventory decelerated and declining, making most cities cautiously stable, comprehensive consideration, this morning, Beijing Hegang 3 earthquake-resistant large screw 3460 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous day; Shanghai Zhongtian secondary screw 3430-3460 yuan / ton, It was flat compared with the previous day; Guangzhou Guangzhou Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. ranked second class big screw 3590 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day.

● Plates: In the market, yesterday's long-term shocks continued to rise and continue to provide support to the spot market. In addition, there are few new steel mills to supplement, and limited marketable resources also stimulate traders to increase their confidence. The mainstream of hot-rolling has been raised, including North China, South China, Central China, and Southwest China. The rate of increase was more than 20-40 yuan per ton. After the increase, the overall transaction volume has improved; the east and northeast China are trending upward, and the resource prices are mainly high. However, the shipment was slightly weak. Considering that the market price has been rising recently, it is currently at a relatively high level. In the off-season of traditional sales, the downstream demand is weak, and the risk of resource downside is gradually accumulating. Therefore, it is expected that the country’s enthusiasm will remain stable. Shanghai market 5.5mm mainstream offer 3600 yuan / ton, Tianjin market 5.5mm Tang Gang mainstream quote 3510-3530 yuan / ton; Lecong market 5.5mm Liuzhou mainstream quote 3750-3770 yuan / ton.