Mo was stunned by "environmental protection", and the risk factor of the brain steel market is gradually higher.

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In recent days, the domestic steel market prices have remained volatile and the spot price of finished steel products has been weak, and the steel billet has risen relatively well. The most influential factor for the recent domestic steel market is undoubtedly the environmental protection policy. The author has combed a bit, mainly including the following policies:

1. “Guangdong Province Wins the Blue Sky Defence War 2018 Work Plan”, issued on May 7.

2. “Special Remediation Plan for Jincheng Iron and Steel Foundry Industry”.

3. The 2018 Environmental Protection Work Conference of Shanxi Province revealed that in order to resolutely fight the battle against pollution and implement the environmental protection upgrading project of industrial enterprises, before the end of September 2018, existing enterprises in Shanxi Province and Other industries completed the standardization of special emission limits for atmospheric pollutants. .

4. From October 1st, 2018, Henan Province, iron alloy, coking and enterprise iron, steel, and steel rolling processes fully implement the national air pollutants special emission limits.

5. Hebei issued the “Ultra-Emission Standards for Industrial Air Pollutants (Draft for Comment)”. On January 1, 2020, the existing company's sintered pellets will perform 10 mg/m3 of particulate matter, 35 mg/m3 of sulfur dioxide, and 50 mg/m3 of nitrogen oxides.

6. The “Three-Year Action Plan for Jiangxi Province to Win the Blue Sky Defence War (2018-2020)” issued by Jiangxi Province recently. For enterprises with high energy consumption, high emissions, cement, etc., promote the whole or part of the heavy pollution process of enterprises to transfer to the areas with resource advantages and environmental capacity, or to retreat into the park; for backward production capacity and “zombies” that do not meet the industrial policy requirements Enterprises, as well as environmental risks and hidden dangers that cannot be relocated or transformed, shall be shut down according to law; by the end of 2020, the tasks of relocation and reconstruction of heavily polluting enterprises in the main urban areas of the city will be basically completed.

7. Recently, the General Office of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued a letter on the solicitation of the “Working Plan for Enterprise Ultra-low Emissions Reconstruction (Draft for Comment)”. The main objectives of the revising work are as follows: “Newly-built (including relocation) projects should all reach ultra-low emission levels. By the end of October 2020, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Sui Plains will focus on air pollution prevention and control. Enterprises with transformational conditions in the region have basically completed ultra-low emission transformation. By the end of 2022, the Pearl River Delta, Chengdu, Central Liaoning, Wuhan and its surrounding areas, Changsha, Zhuzhou and Wuchang, etc. have been basically completed; by the end of 2025, the country has Companies that have adapted conditions are striving to achieve ultra-low emissions."

The above environmental protection related policies will indeed have a major impact on the industry. In particular, Articles 5 and 7, the draft of the Exposure Draft for Hebei Province and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment for the implementation of ultra-low emission limit reforms will have a major impact on enterprises. The current status quo is that basically no enterprise can meet this ultra-low emission limit standard, and it really needs a large-scale transformation. However, from the perspective of the impact time, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Tianjin-Hebei region and the surrounding areas, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Yan Plains have set aside a one-and-a-half to two-year renovation time, which should have a relatively limited impact on supply in the short term.

Articles 3 and 4, Shanxi and Henan provinces must reach special emission limits by the end of September. The policies of these two provinces may have an impact on the market in the third quarter of this year. At present, the emission levels and special emissions of Shanxi and Henan provinces. There is still a certain gap compared to the limit. If the Shanxi and Henan governments are really like the Xuzhou government, it is necessary to carry out environmental upgrading and upgrading under the state of full production suspension.

Most of the above environmental protection policies will have an impact on the future for a long time, but will not affect the steel mill production immediately. This year's national environmental protection policy, the biggest impact on production is Xuzhou's environmental protection reform policy, most of the local steel mills stop production; the second is the Wu'an policy, all stopped production in late March, starting in April, the blast furnace limited production of 50% (Recently, steel mills' discharge permits have passed the acceptance inspection, and the proportion of steel mills' production has been reduced to about 30%.) Third, Tangshan's non-heating season is limited, and some steel mills are not affected by the policy.

How big is the impact of environmental protection? This winter's “2+26” urban heating season is limited to production, but in the first quarter of this year, the national crude steel output increased by 5.4% over the same period of last year (no large-scale mandatory production restriction policy in the same period last year); April The national crude steel output was 76.7 million tons, up 4.8% year-on-year. In April, the national average daily output of crude steel was 2.5576 million tons, a record high, up 7.13% from March; the crude steel output in China from January to April was 289.97 million tons. It increased by 5.0% year-on-year. This impressive record was achieved in the context of the above three effective production reduction policies.

From the trend point of view, the output will continue to increase under the high profit (currently mills have a gross profit of 500-1000 yuan per ton of steel), the statistical blast furnace operating rate has increased to 86.5%, and the operating rate in May is higher than the April average. To increase by 3 percentage points, the possibility that crude steel output will hit a record high in May will not be ruled out, and the risks brought by high production to the market are gradually accumulating.

From the perspective of demand trends, the overall growth rate of fixed asset investment is still declining. It has dropped to 7% in January-April, 0.5% lower than the growth rate in the first quarter, and infrastructure investment fell to 12.4% in January-April. It has dropped by 0.6 percentage points from the first quarter. From the perspective of seasonal demand, April and May are the peak periods of annual demand release. In June and July, the impact of high temperature and rainy weather will decrease. In April and May, the high-intensity demand for the demand made the country's steel products, especially the construction steel stocks, be greatly digested. It is necessary to pay close attention to the changes in the country's steel stock digestibility rate starting in late May. Once the inventory digesting rate slows down, the steel price is very high. May withstand downside pressure.

Pot Filler

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