Oil prices oscillate back

The fluctuation of oil prices has always been a topic of common concern to the public. This week’s turmoil in the broader market saw a general picture in the petrochemical and chemical fiber industries, but the oil sales and warehousing industry performed well. Donghua Energy and Haiyue have better performance in the C3 concept of individual stocks.

From the perspective of oil and natural gas, the crude oil market demand is still sluggish, and supply is still sufficient. Under the influence of geopolitical stimuli, the trend of crude oil this week is mainly to fall. Due to the sluggish global economy and the continuous increase in North American crude oil production, we believe that crude oil prices are more likely to fluctuate in the future. In terms of bulk petrochemicals, this week's acrylic acid prices were affected by the explosion of Japanese catalyst companies and continued to rise sharply. At present, the price of acrylic acid has risen to 3,300 yuan before the explosion, which is far beyond market expectations. There are no major changes in other bulk products.

In terms of chemical fiber prices, the market buzzed with US cotton quality issues, which stimulated US cotton prices to rise sharply. Zheng Cotton also reacted, but it had little impact on cotton spot prices. The price of viscose is still falling mainly. Due to the poor downstream demand, the prices of the entire polyester industrial chain declined slightly. The contradiction between the strong PX price and the weak downstream demand has become increasingly prominent. However, under the premise of weak oil price fluctuations, we believe that the weakness of downstream prices will eventually be transmitted to the upstream PX link. The CPL continued to decline, but there was a certain trend of stabilization of nylon prices. Spandex prices remain weak.

With regard to chemical fiber prices, the price of cotton still oscillated, and the price of viscose staple fiber continued to decline. The polyester industry chain is currently in the midst of strong costs and weak demand, and the inventory inventory has come to an end. Polyester and PTA products are both in the vicinity of the break-even line, and inventory has also risen. The overall operating conditions are still not good. There is no major change in the prices of spandex and nylon. We still maintain our previous view that oil prices will not rise rapidly before the US election and that the election will have to look at the new US government’s economic and Middle East policies.