The price of non-ferrous metals during the National Day staged a "roller coaster"

During the National Day of China, the international metal market as a whole showed a trend of first-inhibiting and then rising, and the closing price of the last trading day before the National Day of China did not change much. Based on the external disk price at the close of the domestic futures market on September 30, the specific conditions of each variety are as follows: US gold December contract closed at 1635.8 US dollars / ounce, up 6.8 US dollars before the National Day, an increase of 0.4%; Lun copper closed 7292.5 US dollars / Tons, up $12.5, or 0.2%, before the National Day; Lun aluminum closed at $2,209/ton, down $49.75 from the National Day, down 2.2%; and zinc was $1918/ton, down $45 from the National Day, down 2.3% Len lead closed at $1,937/ton, down $113 from the National Day, a drop of 5.5%. According to data from the Shanghai Futures Exchange since 2003, there were five rises in the first trading day after the Shanghai Copper National Day in eight years, three declines, the year of decline was 2006, 2007, 2008; eight years after the Shanghai Aluminum National Day There were six rises on the first trading day, two declines, and the year of decline was 2007 and 2008. In the four years, the first trading day after the Shanghai Zinc National Day rose twice, falling twice, and the year of decline was 2007, 2008. In the three years, the first trading day after the Shanghai Golden National Day has risen twice, once falling, and the year of decline is 2008; Shanghai lead has no historical data due to late listing time. Judging from the above historical statistics, the decline in metal prices during the National Day was mainly concentrated in 2007 and 2008, when the financial crisis was brewing and erupting. Due to the slow progress of the European debt crisis, the global economy is still facing downside risks, but the latest PMI data and the US non-farm payrolls data show signs of improvement, which may temporarily ease market panic. After the rapid decline in the previous period, the possibility of non-ferrous metals prices continuing to fall sharply has decreased. Non-ferrous metals may start with smaller fluctuations on the first trading day after China's National Day. Copper and gold are more likely to open slightly due to stronger external market. Large, aluminum, zinc, lead may be lower. Since the National Bureau of Statistics is about to announce China's third quarter macroeconomic data on October 14, investors should wait for the data to be announced before determining the investment direction.

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