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I. Comprehensive and accurate grasp of the current economic situation Since the beginning of this year, China's economic growth has changed from policy stimulus to independent growth, and continues to develop in the direction of macroeconomic regulation and control. The main situation and characteristics of economic operation in the first half of the year: First, the national economy developed steadily and rapidly, and GDP grew by 9.6%. The three major demands are driving the economic growth at a normal level, and the role of domestic demand is increasing. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 16.8%, fixed asset investment increased by 25.6%, total import and export increased by 25.8%, and the trade surplus decreased. The agricultural production situation is good, with a total output of 252.5 billion jin of summer grain, an increase of 6.2 billion jin from the previous year. Second, the price increase is generally controllable. In accordance with the requirements of controlling currency, developing production, ensuring supply, invigorating circulation, strengthening supervision, and ensuring people's livelihood, a series of targeted measures were introduced. The supply of important commodities such as grain, oil, sugar and meat products and oil products has been well protected, and price violations have been seriously investigated. Most provinces have established linkage mechanisms linking social assistance and safeguards standards to rising prices. In the first half of the year, consumer prices rose by 5.4% year-on-year, of which the hikes factor affected 3.3 percentage points; the industrial producers' purchase price and ex-factory price rose at a high level. Third, the economic benefits have increased steadily. Fiscal revenue increased by 31.2%, an increase of 1.35 trillion yuan over the same period of the previous year. The efficiency of enterprises has grown rapidly, and the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size have increased by 28.7%. Fourth, structural adjustment is actively promoted. Strategic emerging industries have developed rapidly. The growth rate of production in machinery and pharmaceutical industries is higher than that of industrial enterprises above designated size. The development of modern service industries such as software, information services and cultural creativity is in good shape. The planning and implementation of the main functional area of ​​the country has been completed, and the development of ethnic areas has been strengthened. The pace of undertaking industrial transfer in the central and western regions has accelerated. Fifth, employment and residents' incomes grew rapidly, and people's lives improved further. There were 6.55 million new jobs in urban areas, and the urban registered unemployment rate was 4.1% at the end of June. The per capita disposable income of urban residents and the per capita cash income of farmers increased by 7.6% and 13.7% respectively. The social security system has been further improved, and the state finance has increased its investment in the areas of people's livelihood such as social security and employment, medical and health care, and housing security. Generally speaking, the situation of China's economic operation is good. The relationship between the speed of economic growth and quality, structure and efficiency tends to improve, economic and social development tends to be coordinated, and some prominent contradictions are gradually alleviating. The economic growth rate has slowed slightly, and it is largely the result of active regulation. It is at a reasonable level and has not exceeded expectations. We pay more attention to alleviating the main contradiction of excessive price rises, pay more attention to the impact of various economic and non-economic factors on economic operations, pay more attention to solving outstanding problems involving the interests of the people, and better handle the need to maintain a stable and fast economy. The relationship between development, adjustment of economic structure and management of inflation expectations has consolidated and expanded the results of the response to the impact of the international financial crisis. At present, the domestic and international environment facing China's economic development is still very complicated, and there are still many uncertainties and uncertainties. From an international perspective, the world economy is recovering, but the recovery process is still fragile and uneven. First, the economic growth rate of some countries has declined. In the first and second quarters of the United States, the annual GDP growth rate was 0.4% and 1.3% respectively, which was significantly lower than the 3.1% level in the fourth quarter of last year. Many production and demand indicators showed a weakening trend, which was significantly lower than market expectations, especially real estate. The market recovery is weak. In the first quarter of the Eurozone economy, the chain-on-quarter and year-on-year growth rates were 0.8% and 2.5%, respectively, but the countries were clearly divided, and some countries suffering from the sovereign debt crisis were in a downturn. Japan’s GDP in the first quarter fell by 0.9% from the previous quarter, and fell by 0.3% in the second quarter, with negative growth for three consecutive quarters. Some emerging economies have also slowed down in the first quarter. Brazil grew by 4.2% year-on-year, down 5.1 percentage points from the same period of the previous year; India continued its downward growth rate from the beginning of last year, and the first quarter increased by 7.8% year-on-year, which was the fifth quarterly low. Second, global inflationary pressures have increased. The impact of excess liquidity has become increasingly prominent. The prices of commodities such as oil and grain have fluctuated at a high level, and prices in most countries are facing greater upward pressure. Inflation has become a prominent problem in emerging economies. Brazil's consumer price index rose 6.9% year-on-year in July; India's wholesale price index rose 9.4% in June. The inflation risk in developed countries has also increased significantly. The US consumer price index rose by 3.6% year-on-year in May and June, and remained the highest since November 2008 for two consecutive months. The euro zone’s July inflation rate was 2.5%, surpassing the ECB’s target of 2% for eight consecutive months. . Third, the unemployment rate in developed economies remains high and economic growth lacks momentum. After the outbreak of the international financial crisis, the unemployment rate in the United States, the Eurozone and Japan increased significantly, reaching 10.2%, 10.1% and 5.7% respectively. Although it has fallen back, it is still significantly higher than the pre-crisis average. Fourth, government debt risks continue to accumulate. The negative impact of many countries' response to the international financial crisis's unconventional fiscal stimulus has begun to emerge, with risks shifting from the private sector to the public sector. The US federal deficit has exceeded $1 trillion for three consecutive fiscal years and may reach a record $1.65 trillion this year, exceeding 10% of GDP. Some countries in the euro zone have serious imbalances in fiscal revenue and expenditure, high fiscal deficits, and the proportion of debt to GDP is still rising. The European debt crisis is lingering. Recently, Standard & Poor's downgraded to AAA+ from the AAA level after placing the US long-term sovereign credit rating on the negative watch list for nearly four months, causing a sharp turmoil in the international financial market. Major stock indexes fluctuated sharply, prices of bulk commodities such as crude oil dropped significantly, and prices of safe-haven products such as gold hit new highs. Constrained by economic and social factors such as the United States and Europe, the sovereign debt problem will be difficult to alleviate in the short term, which will obviously drag down the recovery process of the world economy. From the domestic perspective, although there are many favorable conditions for development, the enthusiasm for development in all aspects is very high, but there are also many contradictions. In addition to some long-standing institutional and structural problems, there have been some new changes in economic operations. Mainly due to the slowdown of economic growth and the rapid rise of prices, the difficulty of macroeconomic regulation and control has increased; the volume of real estate market has shrunk, housing prices have remained stagnant, and the growth rate of housing completion has declined; some SMEs have been squeezed by multiple factors. Difficulties; the situation of energy conservation and emission reduction is very severe, and some high-energy-consuming industries have rebounded; the external environment facing export growth tends to be severe; there are still some problems that the masses have strongly reflected in the people's livelihood such as food safety. We must keep a clear mind, enhance our sense of urgency, fully estimate the complexity and seriousness of the situation, calmly observe, calmly cope, make our work more solid, and consolidate the good momentum of economic and social development. Second, adhere to the orientation of macroeconomic regulation and control, grasp the direction, intensity and rhythm of macroeconomic policies to accurately judge the economic situation, and grasp the main contradictions in economic operations, and grasp the direction, intensity and rhythm of macroeconomic regulation and control. Looking at all aspects, the overall level of price stability remains the primary task of macroeconomic regulation and control, and the orientation of macroeconomic regulation and control cannot be changed. At the same time, it is necessary to improve the pertinence, flexibility, and forward-looking of macroeconomic policies in accordance with changes in the situation, and effectively handle the relationship between maintaining stable and rapid economic development, adjusting economic structure, and managing inflation expectations, and it is necessary to lower the price increase. It does not cause large fluctuations in economic growth. At the end of last year, the Central Economic Work Conference proposed to implement a prudent monetary policy. By now, it has been more than half a year, and the growth of monetary credit has returned to normalcy and achieved remarkable results. Since the fourth quarter of last year, it has increased the deposit reserve ratio by 4.5 percentage points for 9 times, and raised the benchmark interest rate for deposits and loans by 1.25 percentage points five times. At the end of July, the broad money M2 increased by 14.7% year-on-year, within the target range of 16%. We must grasp three aspects of monetary policy. First, adhere to the implementation of a sound monetary policy. In recent months, the growth rate of money and credit has declined, but it is not low compared with normal years. At the end of July, the balance of RMB loans increased by 16.6% year-on-year. Considering that the bases in the previous two years were relatively large, the stock of money was relatively large, and the absolute amount of increase was not small. It is necessary to maintain a reasonable growth in the total amount of social financing, attach importance to optimizing the credit structure, improve the level of financial services, and increase credit support for structural adjustment, especially agriculture and small enterprises. Second, pay full attention to the lagging and cumulative effects of monetary policy and improve the forward-looking policy. The current domestic and international economic situation is very complicated. There will be time lags in macroeconomic policy effects, coupled with rising raw material prices, rising labor costs, tight electricity consumption, interest rate hikes, and exchange rate appreciation. We must look at the current economic performance, but also accurately judge the future economic development trend, enhance the forward-looking policy, avoid the lagging effect of monetary policy and superimpose various factors, and have an excessive impact on the next stage of the real economy. The third is to rationally use a variety of policy tools to improve the pertinence of policies. We must grasp the balance points of various policy instruments and make reasonable combinations to strengthen the supervision of off-balance-sheet business, prevent risks from accumulating, and maintain a healthy and stable financial system. At the same time, it is necessary to further promote financial reforms such as interest rate liberalization and exchange rate formation mechanisms, manage the use of foreign exchange reserve stocks, gradually reduce increments, strengthen effective monitoring of cross-border capital, and prevent large inflows of hot money. In addition, we must also handle the relationship between bank capital adequacy ratio, bank system risk prevention and capital market stability, rationally guide market expectations, stabilize market confidence, and promote the healthy development of capital markets. We must continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy, strengthen income and reduce expenditures, and optimize the structure of expenditures. Recently, the parties are very concerned about local government debt. Objectively speaking, this is an old problem and an old phenomenon. China's local government debt first occurred in 1979, and by 1996 all provincial governments and most city and county governments borrowed debt. From March to May this year, according to the State Council's deployment, the National Audit Office conducted a comprehensive audit of the local government's debt situation, and found out the situation. It has been reported to the National People's Congress and made public. At the end of 2010, the balance of local government debt totaled 10.72 trillion yuan, of which 51.15% totaled 5.48 trillion yuan, which was borrowed in 2008 and before and used to continue construction projects before 2008. At the same time, the increase in local government debt was mainly used for local economic and social development, and played a positive role in responding to both financial crises. However, it is worth noting that there are still some problems in the lending and management of local government debt. We must promptly clean up and standardize local government financing platform companies, implement full-caliber supervision, strictly control the increments, gradually digest the stocks, and effectively resolve risks. According to the principle of classified management and differential treatment, the issue of debt repayment and follow-up financing of projects under construction should be properly handled. Financial institutions must strengthen risk identification and risk management, and follow the principles of commercialization to carefully assess the borrower's financial ability and source of repayment. The government’s violation of the guarantee commitments is strictly prohibited. At the same time, it is necessary to study the establishment of a standardized local government debt financing mechanism. Relevant departments and local governments and financial institutions should pay close attention to research, further propose specific solutions, improve transparency and capital use performance, strengthen financial discipline, and enhance public confidence. Third, the overall important work of coordinating the overall situation should be based on the deployment at the beginning of the year, comprehensively do a good job in this year's work, highlighting the following key points. (1) Maintaining a stable overall price level.       Although some factors that drive price increases are controlled to some extent, they have not been eliminated. First, the global liquidity is abundant, and the price of international primary products is rising. The input inflationary pressure has not been significantly weakened. Second, the price increase of food and housing is still at a high level, and it is difficult to significantly reduce it in the short term. This will continue to put pressure on price increases. In July, food prices rose by 14.8% year-on-year, affecting the overall price level by 4.38 percentage points. The third is the cardinal effect. Although the impact of the base effect will gradually ease and the inflection point will begin in July, the third quarter is still not low. Fourth, the increase in the cost of factors such as labor wages is long-term and rigid. It is necessary to fully understand the importance of stabilizing the overall level of prices, and further implement a series of targeted policy measures introduced by the central government. In addition to controlling the total amount of money, we must focus on agricultural products, especially food supplies, and strengthen food quality supervision. Promote the balance between supply and demand; effectively reduce excessive circulation costs, pay close attention to the introduction of taxation and charging policies to promote the development of the logistics industry; standardize the development of the housing rental market; rationally grasp the timing and intensity of government management prices; strengthen price supervision and stabilize inflation expectations. We must make the price increase as much as possible in the second half of the year, keep the overall price level basically stable, and lay a good foundation for stabilizing prices next year. (2) Unswervingly implement the real estate market regulation and control policies to ensure that they see actual results.       Since the beginning of this year, we have taken various measures and comprehensively implemented policies to strengthen and improve the regulation of the real estate market. From the situation in the first half of the year, the price increase of most cities has declined. The housing prices in some cities have declined. The speculative demand for investment has been curbed. The mentality of residents buying houses has become more rational. The market expectation is changing. Some cities with excessive housing prices have shown signs of cooling. The effects of regulation have initially appeared. At the same time, we must also see that the short-term and long-term potential pressures on housing prices are still relatively high. Most cities still have high housing prices. Buyers and sellers are still in the wait-and-see and game stage. The market is in a stalemate and stalemate. . At present, the regulation of the real estate market is at a critical period, the determination of regulation and control can not be shaken, the policy direction cannot be changed, and the strength cannot be relaxed. Governments at all levels must implement the central real estate control policies without compromise. First, we must unswervingly curb unreasonable demand, continue to strictly implement differentiated housing credit, taxation policies, and housing purchase restrictions. At the same time, we must specifically curb the excessive rise in housing prices in second- and third-tier cities and promote a reasonable return of housing prices. Second, we must appropriately increase the supply of real estate land, promote the effective supply of housing in the current and future period, and focus on the construction of affordable housing and ordinary commercial housing. Third, it is necessary to strengthen responsibility and supervise inspections. For cities that fail to implement regulatory policies, increase housing prices too fast, and lag behind the construction of affordable housing, we must strengthen supervision and correct them within a time limit. Fourth, we must take advantage of the current period of the real estate market, and pay close attention to research and formulate policies to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Implementing the construction plan of 10 million sets of affordable housing is an important measure to ensure the control effect of the real estate market. It is also a hard task that must be completed, and there must be no slack. This year, the central government has substantially increased the subsidy funds for the local government. On the basis of the original arrangement of 103 billion yuan, an additional 28 billion yuan has been added, which has been basically released. The central government will further increase the subsidy according to the growth of fiscal revenue, with a focus on increasing subsidies to the central and western regions. It is necessary to give priority to ensuring the construction of land for affordable housing, implement preferential policies for administrative examination and approval, tax reduction and exemption, and strengthen financial support for the construction of affordable housing. It is necessary to attach great importance to and improve the quality of affordable housing projects so that ordinary people can live in peace of mind. It is necessary to focus on strengthening system construction and long-term planning, establishing and improving a complete set of management systems for the allocation, operation, and exit of affordable housing, especially promoting the fairness, openness, and fairness of the use of affordable housing, so that the affordable housing project truly becomes a popular project. All localities must disclose the construction plan of affordable housing, as well as the start-up, completion, and distribution, to the public through the government website and public media, and accept social supervision. (3) Do not relax agriculture and food production.       The experience over the years shows that the key to maintaining price stability is to maintain the stability of food prices. The most fundamental thing is to maintain the stable development of food and agricultural production. China's grain has been harvested year after year, and the supply is relatively abundant. However, due to rapid consumption growth, supply and demand are still in a tight balance, coupled with rising labor costs, rising agricultural product prices, and increased circulation costs, the pressure on food prices is rising. Under such conditions, more emphasis should be placed on the steady development of food and agricultural production. This summer's summer harvest has been bumper, but the bulk of the grain is autumn grain. Due to the recent drought and flood disasters, coupled with some uncertain factors, the food production situation for the whole year should not be blindly optimistic. At present, we must focus on the following aspects: First, we must earnestly grasp the production of autumn grain. Strengthen agricultural science and technology services and autumn grain field management, do a good job in all kinds of agricultural resources reserve, supply and price quality supervision, do a good job in market adjustment and transportation, and ensure a good harvest throughout the year. The second is to do a good job in disaster prevention and mitigation. Relevant regions and departments should attach great importance to the implementation of responsibilities, strengthen coordination and cooperation, and effectively reduce the impact of disasters. It is necessary to fully implement the spirit of the Central Water Conservancy Work Conference, strengthen the construction of agricultural infrastructure such as farmland water conservancy, change the appearance of water conservancy facilities as soon as possible, and fundamentally enhance the ability of agriculture to resist natural disasters. The third is to do a good job in the circulation of agricultural products. This is an important part of ensuring supply and promoting production development. It is necessary to strengthen the supervision of the circulation of agricultural products, resolutely crack down on various behaviors that disrupt market order, and prevent abnormal fluctuations in agricultural product prices. Continue to implement the "meter bag" governor responsibility system and the "food basket" mayor responsibility system. The fourth is to conscientiously implement various policies and measures to support the sustainable and healthy development of the live pig industry, fully grasp the production of pigs, increase market supply, and promote market stability. At the same time, we will improve the long-term mechanism for maintaining the long-term stable development of the pig industry as soon as possible. (4) Promote structural adjustment and energy conservation and emission reduction.       This year is the first year of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan". We must create a favorable environment for transforming the mode of economic development and guide all parties to focus their efforts on accelerating economic restructuring, improving development quality and efficiency, and increasing employment and improving people's livelihood. Promote social harmony. At present, the problems of extensive economic growth and unreasonable structure are still outstanding. In particular, some high-energy-consuming products are growing rapidly. Some production cuts in the past have also resumed production. The production capacity has been released in a large amount. The task of reducing emissions is very serious. At the same time, the problems of heavy metal pollution and water pollution have been on the rise, and some emerging industries have some environmental hazards. We must make greater efforts to promote structural adjustment, and do a good job in transforming and upgrading the manufacturing industry, intensifying technological transformation of enterprises, accelerating the development of strategic emerging industries, and vigorously developing service industries. Take measures from various aspects to improve the development environment of small enterprises and support the development of small enterprises. We will conscientiously do a good job in energy conservation, emission reduction and environmental protection, clarify the responsibility of local and enterprise targets, highlight the binding effects of energy consumption and environmental protection standards on corporate investment and production, strengthen the construction of key projects for energy conservation and emission reduction, and further promote energy conservation and emission reduction in the whole society. Actively respond to climate change. (5) Focus on deepening reform and opening up.       It is our basic experience to insist on using the reform method to solve the development problem. This year, we launched a series of reforms in some key areas and key links, including expanding the pilot program of new rural social endowment insurance, piloting urban endowment insurance for urban residents, accelerating the pace of budget disclosure, reforming individual income tax, and launching pilot projects for overseas direct investment in RMB settlement. The real estate tax reform pilot, the introduction of state-owned land housing expropriation and compensation regulations. Reforms in these areas must be implemented conscientiously and summed up experience in a timely manner. At the same time, we must pay more attention to the top-level design of reform, and pay close attention to research and promote deep-level reforms in the fields of finance, taxation, finance, income distribution, and foreign economics. Since the beginning of this year, China's import and export trade has shown a steady and rapid growth trend. In the second quarter, the growth rate of imports and exports tended to slow down, and the growth rate of exports fell more. Judging from the leading indicators such as the export order index reflecting foreign trade exports, the next stage of export still faces various difficulties and uncertainties. The combination of weak external demand and rising production and operation costs will further squeeze the profit margins of foreign trade enterprises. Many SMEs may face greater difficulties, which must be highly valued. It is necessary to maintain the continuity and stability of foreign trade policies, address the outstanding difficulties of SMEs' financial constraints, and strive to promote the steady growth and basic balance of foreign trade. It is necessary to pay close attention to changes in the external market environment, seriously study the impact on China's import and export trade, and take countermeasures. We must focus on strengthening the long-term development of foreign trade, combine support for small and medium-sized enterprises with strong enterprises, combine the export of stable traditional superior products and vigorously support the export of high-tech and high-value-added products, and combine the consolidation of traditional markets with the development of emerging markets. We will combine the steady development of general trade with the acceleration of processing trade, adhere to both import and export, and achieve coordinated development of foreign trade speed, quality and efficiency. (6) Vigorously protect and improve people's livelihood.       The fundamental purpose of economic development is to continuously improve the material and cultural living standards of the people. Achieving good, maintaining and developing the fundamental interests of the overwhelming majority of the people is the standard for testing all our work. It is necessary to further divert the resources managed by the government to the public service areas such as employment, social security, education, medical care, and affordable housing. Efforts will be made to promote the employment of key groups, strengthen employment guidance and services for college graduates, and strengthen training and employment services for migrant workers and retired soldiers. We will further improve the social insurance system such as pensions, and promote the pilot schemes of new rural insurance and urban residents' social endowment insurance to ensure that the target of 60% coverage will be achieved by the end of the year. Accelerate the development of education, health, culture and other social undertakings, implement various policies to broaden the sources of funding for fiscal education, strengthen the training of general practitioners and the construction of rural doctors, and implement basic and major public health service projects. Innovate social management and services, improve management systems such as safe production, emergency management, and social security, properly resolve the legitimate and reasonable demands of the masses, resolutely correct behaviors that harm the interests of the people, and maintain social harmony and stability. Under the leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Hu Jintao as General Secretary, we must strengthen our confidence and work hard to achieve this year's economic and social development goals and ensure a good start in the 12th Five-Year Plan.
On the current macroeconomic situation and economic work Author: Wen Jiabao