Chemical market last week market analysis and forecast

I. Energy market

1, this week's market overview

Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, this week, the average week last week, the average change Brent 76.60 74.64 76.35 76.93 76.67 76.24 74.23 2.01 WTI 74.7 71.92 73.91 75.02 74.6 73.16 74.03 0.87

This week international oil prices fluctuate higher. At the beginning of the week, as investors were still worried about whether the weak US and the global economy could digest a record supply of oil, crude oil fell slightly to end San Liyang. Subsequently, as the market expected crude oil inventories to continue to rise, WTI crude oil prices fell 2.78 US dollars the next day. In the middle of the week, international oil prices rebounded as US manufacturing data boosted supply concerns and the US Gulf oil well explosion caused supply concerns. Over the weekend, due to data showing that the expansion of service activities in the United States in August slowed, oil prices fell again. As of the close of September 10, Brent crude closed at 76.67 U.S. dollars/barrel, up 0.02 U.S. dollars from the previous weekend, and WTI crude oil closed at 74.6 U.S. dollars/barrel, down by 0.57 dollars from the previous weekend.

2, factor analysis

The main factors affecting the oil market this week are:
1. The U.S. Department of Commerce announced on August 30th that U.S. consumer spending rose by only 0.4% in July. Personal income rose by only 0.2% in July. U.S. gasoline demand was 9.169 million barrels per day, still lower than the levels before 2007 and 2008 before the economic crisis. .
2. The latest inventory data released by the US Energy Information Administration on Wednesday showed that, as of the week of August 27th, US crude oil inventories increased by 3.425 million barrels to 362 million barrels, the highest level since June 25, and gasoline inventory declined during the week. The 212,000 barrels were 225 million barrels, the highest level since the end of August 1987. Distillate stocks fell by 739,000 barrels to 175 million barrels, which was 1167.2 million barrels higher than the same period last year. In the same week, the refinery operating rate fell to 87.0% from 87.7% in the previous week. Crude oil inventories at the delivery point of WTI**-Cushing fell by 50.3 million barrels to 35.753 million barrels, which was the fourth consecutive decline. Inventory reached its lowest level since April 23, but it was still 4.5 million barrels higher than last year.
3. The report of the American Supply Management Association on Wednesday showed that the manufacturing index rose to 56.3 in August. The U.S. Department of Labor announced on Thursday that as of August 28, the first time US jobless claims fell by 6,000 to 472,000. Following consecutive declines in the previous two months, the U.S. contracted sales index for July increased by 5.2%. US factory orders increased slightly in July, mainly due to increased orders for commercial aircraft and other transportation products. The producers of these products are the main users of crude oil and refined oil.
4. On Friday, the American Institute for Supply Management stated that the expansion of non-manufacturing activities in the United States in August slowed to its lowest level since January. In August, the non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell to 51.5 from 54.3 in July. The U.S. Department of Labor said that the number of non-agricultural employment fell by 54,000 last month, while the unemployment rate increased from 9.5% in the past two months to 9.6%.

3. Market Analysis and Forecast

The main reasons affecting the recent oil prices are:
1. The euro has risen against the US dollar. The euro zone's comprehensive purchasing managers' index for August was a relatively high 56.21, and the euro zone’s retail sales for July increased by 0.1% from the previous month, stronger than expected. The daily chart of the euro is bullish, and the stochastics are bullish. The 5-day moving average and the 15-day moving average form a bullish cross.
2. In the past six weeks, the demand for gasoline in the United States increased by an average of 300,000 barrels per day. Gasoline demand in the last four weeks averaged 9.364 million barrels per day, the lowest level since the four-month period ended July 16, but it has increased by 179,000 barrels per day compared to last year. With the Atlantic entering the high tropical storm season, hurricane activity may affect crude oil production. Hurricane Earl is moving on the East Coast of the United States. If travelers cancel their travel plans on the Labor Day weekend, it may lead to a reduction in oil demand.
3. China's Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued an announcement on Monday that they will refund the consumption tax on imported fuel oil used as raw materials for the production of chemical products such as ethylene and aromatics in 2010. The announcement also stated that in order to promote the development of the domestic olefins chemical industry, domestic consumption of fuel oil used as raw materials for the production of chemical products such as ethylene and aromatics will be exempted from consumption tax this year. To improve energy efficiency, China's consumption tax for domestic and imported fuels was raised from RMB 0.1 per liter to RMB 0.8 in early 2009.
4. Although Hurricane "Piaget" has less impact on the Gulf of Mexico, if there is a deviation in its trajectory, especially on the west, it will have a great impact on the Gulf of Mexico, which will also have a greater impact on crude oil prices.
5. OPEC members will invest heavily in downstream activities in the future. In the next five years, OPEC member states will have 140 projects put into operation and are expected to increase their refining capacity by 12 million barrels a day. Therefore, it is expected that oil prices will continue to rise in the future.

Second, olefin line product market

1, this week's market overview

Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, this week, the average week last week, the average price of ethylene 1021 1021 1021 1021 1021 1021 1011 10 propylene 1195 1195 1195 1195 1195 1195 1210 -15 Butadiene 1681 1681 1681 1681 1681 1681 1681 0 Diethylene glycol 9225 9175 9300 9425 9375 9300 9040 260

(Note: Ethylene is CFR Northeast Asia, propylene and butadiene are CFR China, unit US$/ton, diethylene glycol is East China price, unit yuan/ton)

Ethylene: This week Asian ethylene showed mixed performance. CFR Northeast Asia was affected by rising market demand, with prices slightly rising by US$10 to US$1021/t. In Taiwan, the spot purchase intention of ethylene remains strong. The demand for ethylene glycol merchants is relatively large. Trade in the Korean market is scarce. FOB Korea prices are stable compared to last week. Ethylene prices in Southeast Asia on Friday were at $941/ton, down $40/ton from the previous week. A single 9,000-ton Iranian spot was traded on Monday and shipped to Southeast Asia on September 10-15. At the same time, at least 8-9 shipments were shipped from Iran in September.

Propylene: Asian propylene fell across the board this week due to the fall in oil prices and the recovery of propylene units. CFR China reported $1210/ton, down $15 from the previous weekend. Thailand PPT plans to increase the operating rate of its cracker. Its annual production capacity of ethylene and propylene is 1.376 million tons/year and 487,000 tons/year respectively. In the domestic propylene market, the news of bad news was released. Tianjin Da ethylene sold 4,000 tons of propylene at a low price. The Qilu petrolysis cracker caused problems with the No. 7 boiler, which caused some downstream devices to stop. This week, propylene downstream products were affected by the end-user demand. Propylene oxide and polypropylene powder manufacturers were cautious in entering the market and the refineries were slow to ship, and the pressure on inventory gradually increased. As of this Friday, the mainstream price of propylene in Shandong was 9500-9650 yuan/ton, down 400-500 yuan/ton from the previous week.

Butadiene: The butadiene market in Asia remained stable this week. Affected by the demand of the construction industry, Chinese buyers have a butadiene spot purchase intention at the end of September. The domestic butadiene market still showed a weak consolidation trend. The continued slight upward trend of the downstream rubber market continued to provide a boost to the market. However, the weakness of the external disk price this week and the overhaul of some domestic manufacturers' equipments have not yet ended, making the butadiene behind The trend is not clear, most manufacturers hold steady offer. Manufacturers in North China, East China and South China generally reported 13,500 yuan/ton. Tianjin Bluestar butadiene butadiene smelting plant continued to be parked, driving time has not been determined, and Yangzi Petrochemical's maintenance plan originally scheduled for the end of this week has also been postponed and is expected to continue until next week. The operation of other manufacturers is basically stable.

Diethylene Glycol: This week, the atmosphere of the ethylene glycol import market rose. CFR China's main port price was reported at 1160-1175 USD/ton, which was a surge of 47.5 USD from the previous weekend. Domestically, the domestic diethylene glycol market has seen a sharp pull-up trend. At the beginning of the week, although crude oil plunged, it was supported by the high prices of raw materials ethylene and external disks. By the afternoon of Wednesday, with the tight supply of cargo in Asia and the rise of business speculation, the market price jumped sharply. Over the weekend, with the continuous increase in the ex-factory prices of Sinopec's sales companies, market sentiment was boosted again, and some profit-taking orders began to stop selling. The demand for downstream factories remained stable, the market was firm, and transactions were good. Diethylene glycol in the domestic market in East China market spot at 9450-9500 yuan / ton, compared with prices up a week ago 300 yuan / ton.

2. Market Analysis and Forecast

Propylene: Unscheduled parking of multiple sets of crackers in Asia resulted in shortage of propylene supply in the region. Under this background, in the short term, imported propylene will have no impact on the supply of domestic propylene market, and the supply of raw gas for ground refining in Shandong continues to be tight, leading to under-exploration of gas separation equipment. Polypropylene powder manufacturers in the downstream procurement of propylene production profits are still surplus, early parking wait and see manufacturers have resumed construction. However, on the other hand, the weak demand for the end of the propylene industry chain market, to a certain extent, inhibited propylene's sharp pull up space, the propylene market trading parties will maintain a cautious trading psychology. Therefore, it is expected that if the international oil price continues to fluctuate, there will be no good news in the downstream market and the market may experience a slight downward adjustment.

Butadiene: At present, the factory prices of most butadiene manufacturers are stable. Sinopec and PetroChina sales companies have twice raised the factory quotations of downstream butadiene rubber to 21,600 yuan/ton. However, due to the oversupply of the butadiene market, the entire butadiene market did not show any signs of recovery. Traders hold the right amount of cash in stock and there is no obvious intention to cover short positions. China's manufacturing season is generally August and September. However, due to the weak economy in the United States and Europe, Chinese participants are still worried that this year's export industry may slow down significantly, and the ABS market demand support is limited. Therefore, in the short term, the butadiene market will remain weak.

Diethylene glycol: The price of raw material ethylene continues to increase, and the cost of alcohol products is strong. Shipments from Northeast Asia were tight, and the cost of supporting the company’s cost support mentality was consolidated. Downstream factories have bargain-hunting purchases, which are affected by the cost of holdings, and the speculative atmosphere of speculators remains unabated. However, it is expected that domestic diethylene glycol imports will reach about 35,000 tons in September, which is higher than the previous normal level, and the relative concentration of sources of supply has led buyers to be cautious. Downstream UPR plant demand is tepid, production and sales are flat and demand is limited. End-user dispersion, the rapidly rising price of diethylene glycol, led some deep-processing companies to use other low-cost raw materials instead of diethylene glycol. Therefore, it is expected that the short-term diethylene glycol prices will be strong, but the downstream demand capacity will limit the long-term price increase.

Third, aromatic hydrocarbon products market

1. Market trend this week (Unit: USD/ton)

FOB Korea Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and Friday, the average week last week, the average increase and decrease ** 853.25 840.25 830 844.5 848.5 843.3 854 -10.7 ** 773 767 759 770 774 768.6 762.8 5.8 xylene 815.5 807.5 822.5 828.5 833.5 821.5 809.7 11.8 second two Toluene 961 961 961 961 961 961 963 -2

**: This week, the outer disk followed the oil price before it rose. The weekend closed at 848-849 USD/ton, down by 2.5 USD from the previous weekend. This week, the market fluctuates within a narrow range and is dominated by sideways. At the beginning of the week, at the end of August, the market was in a low mood under the rumor that manufacturers would lower their offer prices. The sellers actively sold goods and sold profits, while the international crude oil market was still sluggish. The business confidence in the market continued to fall, and the turnover in the East China market once fell to 6400 yuan / ton level. However, at the beginning of the month, the manufacturer's listing price was announced. Only the South China Sales Company lowered 300 yuan/ton, and now it implemented 6,900 yuan/ton. Other sales companies surprisingly stably and steadily hit the market. The attitude of the holders of the stocks has tended to be calm, and the market has been steadily oriented. Weekend talks are in progress. 6450-6500 yuan/ton.

Toluene, Xylene: This week, the Asian toluene market followed ups and downs in oil prices. By the end of the week, the FOB Korea market closed at 773.5-774.5 USD/ton, up by 7 dollars from the previous weekend. The external disk of xylene rose more or less this week. At the beginning of the week, due to the continued decline in oil prices, the price continued to fall slightly, but then the price of downstream PX continued to rise. In addition, the price of oil continued to rise, and the price gradually climbed to 833-834 USD. This is a $25 increase over the previous weekend. This week, the domestic market has been consolidating within a narrow range. Oil prices have fluctuated and ups and downs. The market is difficult to find obvious positive support and upside is weak. However, due to the high cost of holding companies, most businesses are optimistic about the medium to long-term market and are below the cost of shipping intention. At a low level, each of the holders of the contractors tried their best to keep their bids and wait for further guidance on the good news. As of the weekend, the market had negotiated a price of 6350-6400 in toluene and 6,550 yuan per ton in xylene.

Ortho-xylene: This week, the performance of the external market of benzene was sluggish. The FOB market in South Korea fell by 2 US dollars to US$960-962/ton, and the CFR China market dropped by US$4 to US$978-980/ton. This week, the domestic market continued to slump in the benzene market. Although crude oil oscillated during the period, it did not have a significant impact on the mentality of the insiders. Due to the weak demand of downstream phthalic anhydride, the downstream demand for benzene was also low, and the price was negotiated. Fall back to 7850-7900 yuan / ton. At present, the inventory in the port area is still high, and the domestic market has been in a situation of oversupply. Under the pressure of high cost of goods holding, there are fewer low-end shippers, and most are stalemate.

2. Market Analysis and Forecast

Pure benzene: The international oil price is weak, and the pure benzene external disk market is concussive and consolidating, giving limited support to the domestic market. The downstream styrene, aniline, and phenol manufacturers started at a low level. The market demand for pure benzene is generally low. In addition, mid-month Tianjin Petrochemical and Yangzi Petrochemical benzene plants will drive one after another. The market supply will increase. The recent market lacks favorable support. The market for pure benzene is still expected. Consolidate narrow range.

Toluene and Xylene: Guangxi Qinzhou plans to officially put into production on September 10, with an annual production capacity of 100,000 tons of toluene and an annual production capacity of 500,000 tons of xylene. Some of the products will enter the East China market, and the maintenance of Tianjin Petrochemical and Yangzi Petrochemical plants will also be completed. At the end of the day, due to concerns about late supply and lack of obvious positive support, the market is still difficult to rise in the near future. However, the market is still limited in terms of the cost of support. It is expected that the market will continue to consolidate within a narrow range in the near future.

Ortho-xylene: Yangzi Petrochemical may drive in mid-term, the port inventory is still high, power supply is limited in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and the number of parking facilities in DOP factories is relatively high. This will give the market certain pressure, but the quotation on the external disk remains at a high level. The overall supply of phthalic anhydride market is small and the market is stable. In the middle, the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays are concentrated. There is no shortage of pre-holidays stocking demand. It is expected that the nearby benzene market will be sideways and may be slightly better.

Fourth, phenol and ** market

1. Market trend this week (Unit: RMB/ton)

Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, this week, the average week last week, the average price of phenol 15350 15350 15325 15325 15325 15300 15330 14800 530 ** 6400 6400 6400 6375 6375 6390 6365 2

Phenol: This week, the phenol market rose first. The phenol market continued to rise last week in the East China market. However, with the cancellation of the maintenance plan for the Yanshan Phenone Plant, it was determined that the market's pull-up and favorable factors weakened, and the market’s buying momentum decreased significantly. , The lack of enthusiasm for downstream procurement, some second-hand businesses are also accompanied by market sales to be safe. As of Friday, the East China Ports had a mainstream talks at 15250-15400 yuan/ton, the low end had risen by 50 yuan from the previous Friday's price, and the high-end had dropped by 50 yuan/ton. The actual transaction was not easy; the downstream purchases lacked enthusiasm and consumed inventory.

**: This week's ** market price consolidation trend, a narrow range of crude oil price shocks and the cancellation of Yanshan pharma ketone device overhaul plan makes the market mentality slightly unstable, accompanied by market sales and wait and see who have both. As of Friday, the Jiangsu region's market price was 6350-6400 yuan/ton, and the enthusiasm of second-hand merchants' inquiries and purchases was significantly lower than that at the beginning of the week. The downstream market maintained on-demand purchases. The high inventory of the ports, the limited power supply in Jiangsu and Zhejiang affected the downstream construction, and both gave certain pressure on the market. Downstream Bisphenol A market continued to tighten the trend, traders reluctantly sold, sealed or quotations pushed up significantly, downstream cost pressures surged, some small and medium-sized factories to reduce production or parking wait and see, the transaction price 18500-19000 yuan / ton.

2. Market Analysis and Forecast

Yanshan District, September cancelled the maintenance plan, Tianjin Zhongsha maintenance plan was postponed, the specific time to be determined, the market mentality is a bit confusing, most market participants are cautiously waiting for the Zhongsha maintenance plan clear. Insufficient raw material ** price rise momentum, price fluctuations in a narrow range, near the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day holiday, the downstream demand will be reduced, Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces to limit the power to achieve "energy-saving emission reduction", some downstream plants start less than 50%, high phenol prices, downstream costs Difficult to pass, ** port inventory remains high, is expected that the recent phenol, ** market will dominate the trend, may be slightly weaker.

V. Styrene market

1, the market trend this week

Styrene Week Monday Wednesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Last week, the average week last week, up and down CFR China 1138.5 1134 1126.5 1136 1142 1135.4 1128.9 6.5 East China 9137.5 9025 9050 9175 9175 9112.5 9045

This week, Asian styrene dropped first and then rose. The continuous decline in crude oil and benzene at the beginning of the week suppressed the styrene market. Businesses are cautiously concerned about the weakness of the stock market and the impact of the recent implementation of the 11-year long holiday on the implementation of home price control measures in China. Subsequently, under the influence of favorable US manufacturing data, rising Chinese stock market and rebound of crude oil, pure benzene rose and ethylene firmed, leading the Asian styrene market to rise. East China's styrene market also began to decline. At the beginning of the week, the temporary purchasing rhythm slowed due to the previous round of warehousing by traders and factories. The trading atmosphere was deserted and the market price in East China fell. Over the weekend, with the rebound in oil prices and external disk boost, the price of East China Styrene fell after the market fell. As of this Friday, the East China Market reported 9,175 yuan per ton, up 225 yuan from the previous week.

2. Market Analysis and Forecast

The spot inventory of styrene fell slightly to 81,000 tons, and the US-Asian arbitrage was temporarily shut down. Since the resources in the United States have decreased, the subsequent impact on Asia has weakened. The downstream ABS and EPS industries started to rise to relatively high levels. Except for contract supply, businesses still have enthusiasm for bulk spot purchases. Tianjin Daxuan maintained its low-load operation. In September, it may dock with its ABS devices, canceling all supply contracts for East China supply contracts, and retaining only the minimum supply in the downstream. However, crude oil continued to fluctuate sharply, and the styrene market lacked clear guidelines. Traders' minds were confused and the market was mostly waiting to see more. Therefore, in the future, the styrene market will still have room for moderate improvement.

Sixth, synthetic fiber raw materials

EO: Last week, major manufacturers in the EO market raised their ex-factory prices again at the beginning of the month. East China Branch raised 500 yuan/ton to 1,1,500 yuan/ton; Yanshan Petrochemical, Tianjin Petrochemical, and Beijing Oriental Petrochemical raised 500 yuan/ton to 11,300 yuan respectively. / Ton; Fushun Petrochemical raised 350 yuan / ton to 11,150 yuan / ton; Central China Branch raised 600 yuan / ton to 12,200 yuan / ton. Affected by the sales of Yangzi Petrochemical and Beijing Dongfang Plant, the supply of EO spot market continued to be tight. Although there was no significant increase in the downstream demand side, the disconnection between supply and demand was still evident. The sentiment in the industry was strong and the EO spot market was firm. In the circumstances where the contradiction between supply and demand in the market is difficult to ease, it is expected that the EO market will continue to be dominated by high levels in the near future. In September, East China Branch EO implemented a spot price of 1,1,500 yuan/ton.

VAC: Last week, the VAC market opened higher. Supported by the price of raw material ethylene, the spot price of the VAC market rose slightly. However, due to the restoration of Shanghai Petrochemical Jinshan No. 2 device and the impact of the No. 1 device, the market is still underpowered. The downstream is still mainly based on on-demand procurement. In the case of little change in the supply and demand side, the VAC market is expected to have a slightly stronger trend in the near future.

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