Crazy investment in coal overcapacity

Coal prices plummeted all the way, and the performance of coal companies generally fell into losses. In the first three quarters of this year, the net profit of the 20 large coal groups was -105.59 billion yuan, and there were only 7 coal enterprises that maintained low profits. At the same time, the accounts receivable of 20 coal companies also exceeded 130 billion yuan, and the capital chain is tight. At present, the huge production capacity of more than 5 billion tons has hit the coal enterprises. Behind the excess capacity is the crazy investment in the coal industry.

[Wind Drive]

8 years of accumulated investment of 3.1 trillion yuan A report from the China Coal Industry Association shows that since 2006, China’s coal mining industry has invested 3.1 trillion yuan in fixed assets.

From 1998 to 2005, the entire coal industry was in a sluggish state, and national policies were restricted to investment in fixed assets. In 2005, China began to integrate resources for the first time, and a large number of small coal mines were shut down. This resulted in two results. First, a large number of coal mines were forced to undergo technological transformation and investment began to increase. Second, supply contracted greatly, and the supply and demand pattern changed. Looseness has become tense, but at the same time, the economy has improved and demand has risen. As a result, coal prices have risen and profits have started to increase. As a result, many funds have poured into the construction of coal mines.

After the economic crisis in 2008, provinces such as Shanxi, Henan, and Guizhou successively carried out the second coal resource integration, prompting the investment amount to rise again.

“At that time, funds were gathered here. From the project, it can be seen that several banks sent a lot of people here. As soon as they heard that the company’s project was approved and the roads were approved, the people of the bank ran. , ** will soon be in place, we all know that the coal mine is a huge profit.” Zhang Lin, a local large-scale state-owned coal company personage Mr. Zhang on the "grand" of the year is still fresh in memory.

【Overcapacity】

In the first three quarters of this year, the coal production capacity brought by the huge investment of only 8 coal enterprises was quite amazing. At present, the national coal production capacity is about 4 billion tons, and the capacity under construction is about 1.1 billion tons. However, the issue of capacity building ahead of schedule has been highlighted. According to China’s coal consumption, there are 300-400 million tons of coal production capacity ahead of schedule.

In fact, in the past few years, China's coal industry's fixed asset investment has maintained a high growth rate, reaching the peak in 2011. At the same time, domestic coal prices have entered a downtrend channel since the fourth quarter of 2011, and in May 2012, a steep decline in cliff-type prices has occurred.

Today's coal companies are no longer the "profit-makers" of rapid expansion of production capacity, but "victims."

According to the report's performance statistics of 25 large-scale coal enterprise groups in Shanxi, Henan, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Anhui, Jiangsu, Sichuan, and Northeast China, there were only eight companies that realized net profit in the first three quarters of this year, but only profit margins. , Compared with the same period last year, the decline rate of up to 92.78%; another 5 coal companies' net profit directly from negative.

China Coal Industry Association statistics also show that from January to August this year, the national coal industry profits fell 46% year-on-year, large and medium-sized coal companies close to 70% loss.

[Exit difficult to find]

Reduction in demand for coal from new coal chemical industries Since 2013, China’s coal investment has declined, and investment in fixed assets in the coal mining and washing industry has been 526.3 billion yuan, down 2% year-on-year. In 2014, the growth rate of the coal mining industry rose by 356 billion yuan in the first nine months of this year, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%.

However, from the perspective of investment, 2011-2013 is still the most concentrated three-year coal investment. According to the coal investment and construction cycle, China's coal production capacity will be gradually released in 2014 and 2015, and may even reach its peak in 2016. Therefore, in the situation where coal consumption in industries such as electricity, steel and building materials is gradually declining, coal companies must find a path that is more suitable for their own development.

In fact, from the current direction of investment, the development of coal chemical industry has become the first choice for most large-scale coal companies. However, the huge capital investment, uncertain return, overcapacity and environmental pollution have always plagued the development of coal chemical industry. Some industry sources said that coal production capacity will be released gradually in these two years, but the national strategic traditional energy demand continues to decrease, coupled with the decline of all international energy prices such as crude oil, natural gas, new coal chemical industry demand for coal is equally worrying.

“The coal chemical industry is difficult to break through, and the value of coal is even worse. This means that the road for the downstream use of coal can hardly be expanded. Coal companies may face greater pressure later than they are now,” said an industry analyst.