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Analysts said that under the current trend, the United States may not need to launch a third round of quantitative easing, but the market bubble is hard to subside. The optimistic expectation continues to push funds into the commodity market. Copper futures prices hit a 43-month high, and many Asian countries need Deal with inflationary pressures in a relatively “overheated†economy.
The United States does not need a third round of "spending money"
According to data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on the 3rd, the US manufacturing index rose to 57 in December last year, up from 56.6 in the previous month, not only the highest level since May last year, but also the 17th consecutive month of expansion, confirming the United States. The economic recovery has increased, with more than 50 representing a boom in the economy and vice versa.
The Wall Street Journal commented that the data is in line with strong employment and consumer spending data for the last few months of 2010, which will lead analysts to predict that the fragile US economic recovery may eventually become self-sustainable growth this year.
"This may convince the Fed to end the $600 billion stimulus plan in mid-2011." "We are entering the new year at a steady pace," said Nomura Securities US analyst Zach Pandl. "The manufacturing report suggests that the economy is Accelerate growth, the first quarter growth rate should be 3%.†Goldman Sachs analysts recently said that the US economic growth is more strong signs, will at least persuade the Fed to stop expanding in the mid-2011 when the $600 billion bond purchase plan ends. The plan. In their report to clients, they pointed out that “if the real gross domestic product (GDP) in the first half of 2011 increased by 3.5% to 4%, it is difficult to predict that the Fed will insist on increasing the scale of bond purchases.â€
Eurozone economy picks up
According to data released by Markit Economics on the 3rd, the manufacturing purchasing managers index (PM I) of the 16 countries in the euro zone rose to 57.1 last month, higher than the initial estimate of 56.8 and the previous month of 55.3, and approached 46 in April last year. The monthly high, mainly benefited from the surge in new orders and the sharp improvement in the labor market, reflecting the fact that Germany and France are leading the industrial recovery in the Eurozone, which has exceeded 50 for 15 consecutive months.
Markit's chief economist Williamson said that the countries surrounding the euro zone showed encouraging signs in December last year. "Germany is still performing well, almost a record growth, France's performance is second, the country last December PM I only Slightly lower than the 10-year peak of the previous month. Peripheral countries such as Spain and Portugal also showed signs of significant recovery, with the exception of Greece, where exports helped boost production growth in these countries, but Greece's recession has slowed at least."
While fiscal austerity measures and sovereign debt crises have caused government borrowing costs in countries such as Ireland and Portugal to climb to uncontrollable levels, Marark's latest survey shows that manufacturers in the euro zone are still growing strong.
Asia is under increasing pressure from inflation
The improvement of manufacturing industry in Europe and the United States has reduced the recovery process of developed countries and emerging market countries, and has played a corrective role in the unbalanced global economic development. However, whether it can really embark on the benign track of global recovery still needs to squeeze out international hot money. Excessive market bubble. On the 4th, optimistic about economic expectations, the willingness of funds to pursue high-risk products increased, and the three-month copper price of the London Metal Futures Exchange rose to a 43-month high. The commodity price bubble undoubtedly gave the manufacturing industry an active period as a whole. Asian countries have added more inflationary pressures.
According to a survey released by HSBC on the 3rd, India's PM I fell to 56.7 in December last year, which is not as good as 58.4 in the previous month. The main reason is that the growth of factory production and new orders has weakened, which has alleviated doubts about the country's overheated economy. India's PM I has been above 50 for 21 consecutive months; in addition, South Korea's PM I rose to 53.9 in December last year, which is much higher than the previous month's 50.2, the biggest increase in seven months. HSBC said: "The Korean economy has a perfect ending last year. With the resurgence of global trade, South Korea can benefit from it, and its export and labor markets are growing." Last week, HSBC just announced China and Japan in 2010. In December, PM I data, China still showed strong growth, only slightly slowed down in November, while Japan's manufacturing output contracted to a minimum in three months.
China and India's manufacturing output growth slowed in December 2010, but growth in regions such as South Korea has increased, thus narrowing the gap in manufacturing activity between most developing economies in Asia and emerging economic giants. Previously, both China and India showed signs of accelerating development and distance from other emerging economies in Asia: China's manufacturing industry grew strongly in November 2010, while data in other regions were weak or flat.
The Financial Times commented that the dynamism of Asian manufacturing and other signs of accelerated economic activity will increase fears that inflation may rise in Asia. The People's Bank of China announced the second rate hike in a few weeks on Christmas Day. If economic data scheduled for release in the next few weeks confirms that economic growth is generally recovering, it is expected that other central banks in Asia will do the same.
HSBC’s chief Indian economist, Leif Essen, said the Indian central bank (RBI) will raise interest rates ahead of schedule rather than postponing. “The PMI data for (India) shows that the economy is still growing at a high rate, but it is increasingly difficult to reconcile with comfortable inflation levels.â€
The US, Europe and Europe manufacturing industry reported good news on the 3rd. The US manufacturing boom was the fastest in seven months. The Eurozone manufacturing industry expanded for the fourth consecutive month. The Asian manufacturing industry continued to diminish, indicating that the pace of recovery in Europe and the United States has begun to rise. As the market moves closer, the global economy may gradually enter a balanced recovery track.