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As a market for the polysilicon market in emerging industries, many polysilicon producers and their downstream PV industry companies are difficult to predict the future trend of the industry.
Half price has doubled in half a year
Polysilicon concept stocks have become hot spots in the market in recent days. On October 19th, the growth rate of the polysilicon sector index ranked third in the two cities. On the morning of the 20th, the polysilicon sector rose by an average of 1.55%, ranking the forefront of the two cities. The reason why the polysilicon segment is sought after by investors in the secondary market is inseparable from the market conditions in which the polysilicon industry continues to heat up in recent months.
In the past year or so, polysilicon prices have been like a roller coaster ride. In September 2008, when the price of polysilicon was the highest, it was close to 500 US dollars per kilogram. In order to avoid further losses caused by further increase in raw material prices, many PV companies had hoarded polysilicon for a large scale. However, at the end of the year, the supply and demand situation of polysilicon was completely reversed, and the price fell to around $150 per kilogram. Since then, the price of polysilicon has continued to fall, and it has been hovering around $50 per kilogram in April this year. Many polysilicon producers have experienced a test of life and death.
At the same time, the sound of overcapacity in the polysilicon industry is also frequently seen. At the end of August 2009, at the State Council executive meeting hosted by Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council, polysilicon, together with steel and cement, was considered to be one of the industries with overcapacity and repeated construction problems. Afterwards, the central government announced the "Several Opinions on Suppressing Overcapacity in Some Industries and Repeated Construction to Guide the Healthy Development of the Industry", stipulating that polysilicon projects below 3,000 tons will not be approved in the future.
However, the new big twist has come again quickly. In 2010, with the sudden increase in demand in the European market, the photovoltaic market experienced explosive growth, and the price of polysilicon, which is the raw material for photovoltaic modules, soared from the bottom. In September, the spot price of polysilicon broke through 90 US dollars per kilogram. After the National Day, the spot price of foreign countries has reached 100 US dollars to 110 US dollars per kilogram, nearly doubled in half a year.
Serious excesses are raging "famine"
While the price of polysilicon has soared, many analysts believe that with the rapid expansion of the photovoltaic industry, polysilicon will even cause "famine." According to forecasts, the domestic crystalline silicon battery capacity will reach 23GW next year, and the output will be about 16GW. According to the output calculation, China needs at least 160,000 tons of silicon material next year.
"But according to domestic production capacity, the production of polysilicon is at the limit, which is about 55,000 tons." A senior executive of a polysilicon production company said that it needs to import about 100,000 tons next year, but the annual output of polysilicon in the world is 60,000. 7,000 tons, some of which will be given to semiconductor manufacturers, "so many downstream manufacturers may have to lose material next year and have to stop production."
In fact, some PV companies have already felt the tight supply of polysilicon. “It’s really a bit tight in September.†Ren Ying, a representative of the New Energy Securities Affairs Office, said in an interview that “this time is better.†She also said that although the price of polysilicon has risen considerably, However, the company had previously signed some long-term orders for polysilicon supply, and the price was relatively stable, so the impact on the company is still small.
For the future, the price of polysilicon may continue to rise and the company will respond to the tight supply. Ren Ying said: “When it comes to direct contact with foreign raw material manufacturers, foreign prices will definitely be cheaper. In fact, we are already abroad. The manufacturer has contacted."
The market "changing face" is too fast
"Currently, the rise in polysilicon prices is beneficial to all shareholders. Although our two companies with a capacity of 3,000 tons are actually commissioning production, the output is not particularly stable, including the quality of the products is not stable, and will not be temporarily To the shareholders to bring too much income." Tianwei Baoding Dong Xiao Yin Xiaonan said in an interview.
As a leading manufacturer of domestic photovoltaic and wind power equipment manufacturers, Tianwei Baobian currently holds or participates in three polysilicon production enterprises. Among them, Tianwei Sichuan Silicon Industry Technology Co., Ltd., with a capacity of 3,000 tons, is directly owned by Tianwei Baobian. The total investment is 2.176 billion yuan, the production capacity is 3,000 tons/year, and Tianwei Baocheng holds 49%. Leshan Ledian Tianwei Silicon Technology Co., Ltd.; and Tianwei Baobian holds 35.66%, and Sichuan Xinguang Silicon Technology Co., Ltd. with a capacity of 1260 tons/year.
However, Yin Xiaonan does not agree with the optimism of the entire industry. "Now this market is an emerging market, and everyone will not be too strict about it. Before, everyone said that polysilicon is surplus, and that domestic companies have to cut prices and have to close down without cutting prices. But since April, this market has been Slowly transferred. Now that the silicon material is tight, the price will continue to rise." Therefore, he admits that for polysilicon manufacturers, the pulse of supply and demand changes in this market is not easy to grasp.
"In the subsequent stage, how to plan for the development of polysilicon should be studied." However, in Yin Xiaonan's view, although the market is changing rapidly, Tianwei Baobian can change unchanged, and will still "strive to develop polysilicon." This is the requirement for the development of the company's own industrial chain, and the second is because as a basic material for the photovoltaic industry and the semiconductor industry, polysilicon has a wide range of applications, which has important strategic significance for the development of China's electronic information industry.
"June, the child's face." This phrase used to describe the erratic weather is also applicable to describe the situation of the domestic polysilicon market - half a year ago, was previously considered to be a serious excess capacity, and was regarded by the government as a target of regulation. The polysilicon industry suddenly became hot, not only the price of polysilicon continued to soar, but also caused a shortage of supply.