New Energy 2012 has no "legend"

In 2011, the newly installed capacity of wind power in China will not be lower than 16 million kilowatts, and the added capacity of fan-connected power will be 18 million kilowatts, which is the first time that China's newly added grid capacity exceeds the newly installed capacity. By the end of 2011, China’s newly installed capacity for photovoltaics is expected to reach 2.5 million kilowatts, which is equivalent to five times that in 2010. Due to resource constraints, biomass power generation does not have much improvement.

After years of rapid development, new energy has gradually entered a relatively stable stage of development. In 2012, it will be a bland year for new energy, with no climax or trough.

Distributed wind power development accounts for up to 30%

Now that wind power has been developed, it can be said that it has entered the university stage from the kindergarten stage. It is not possible to adapt the rules of the kindergarten to meet the requirements of college students. Wind power companies are subject to more technical standards. There is a need for a grid-friendly fan and a friendly grid that uses renewable energy to generate electricity. Through joint efforts of all parties, the overall level of wind power technology can be improved. In 2012, the level of wind power quality and safety and quality will be further improved.

At present, the development of distributed wind farms has become a hot spot. The National Energy Administration once made a conclusion on the development of wind farms, that is, from large-scale centralized development, to a combination of large-scale centralized and distributed development, and a combination of onshore wind farm development and offshore wind farm development, while considering development. Domestic and foreign markets. The author's interpretation of this is that it should be based on large-scale development and land-based wind power development. If you have to add a proportion, 70% should be a large-scale development, 30% a distributed development, and even a lower proportion of distributed. This is determined by the distribution characteristics of China's wind resources. China's wind power resources are mainly concentrated in the western and northern regions and coastal areas. Therefore, although the development of distributed wind farms in Guizhou, Yunnan, Hunan, Jiangxi, and Shandong has done well, it is not the mainstream in the end.

The goal of installing offshore wind power by 30 million kilowatts by 2020 is very difficult to achieve. If the installed capacity of onshore wind power does not reach 300 million kilowatts by 2020, the development of offshore wind farms will definitely not reach 30 million kilowatts. China's offshore wind power resources are limited, and development is restricted by various aspects such as national defense and fisheries, so development of offshore wind power is unlikely to be greatly improved. It is not very realistic for wind turbine manufacturers to try to rely on offshore wind electrolysis.

From the perspective of the first-stage tendering of offshore wind power, the progress is not very unsatisfactory, so even if the bidding for the second batch of offshore wind power concession projects was implemented in 2012, what is the point? Although we have been advocating the development of wind farms to go international, However, the scale of wind farm development in China has accounted for 50% of the world's total, and this 50% is the easiest to develop. Therefore, the development of wind farms is still dominated by the domestic market. Even if we can obtain 20% of wind farm development abroad in the future, it is also incredible.

Fan companies don't have to worry about their own days

In 2012, the days of large wind turbine manufacturers will not be too good, and the days of small wind turbine manufacturers will not be sad. The number of PV companies in China is as large as 780 or so. Compared with PV companies, the number of wind turbine manufacturers is far below this scale. Only twenty of the total number of wind turbine manufacturing enterprises can produce in volume, and less than ten are truly on the scale. Fan manufacturers will certainly withdraw, but they will not collapse as large as photovoltaic companies.

China’s renewable energy price subsidies have been increased from 4 cents per kilowatt-hour to 8 cents. In addition, the on-grid tariffs of wind power have not been reduced. The scale of wind power installation in China has been rapidly expanding. Since the situation is so good. Why fan manufacturers are still miserable. Now, the fan manufacturing industry has changed from a rapid development stage to a stage of healthy development. However, wind turbine manufacturing companies are still fighting a price war. For example, some companies have reduced the price per kilowatt of wind turbines to below 3,200 yuan. If no loss occurs, it is a miracle. Fan manufacturing companies should change their concept of competition. If you do anything you want to compete, you will eventually make the entire industry seriously injured. Fan manufacturers need to explore a win-win business model so that the entire industry can be profitable and thus promote the development of the industry.

Photovoltaic companies have problems

In 2011, the global photovoltaic market maintained rapid growth. Italy's installed capacity for photovoltaics in 2011 is expected to be twice that of 2010. Germany's installed capacity for photovoltaics in 2011 was the same as in 2010. In the United States, the installed capacity of photovoltaics in 2011 was three times that of 2010. The installed capacity of photovoltaics in China in 2011 was 2010. 5 times of the year. Only the sum of the statistical data of the above four countries exceeds the total installed capacity of global PV in 2010. It is estimated that in 2011, the global installed capacity of PV will reach 22 GW, up to 25 GW. With the global economy so sluggish, the global installed capacity of PV increased by 40% over 2010. At the same time, in the global economic downturn, the subsidies of various governments have not fallen sharply. For example, Germany’s PV on-grid tariff subsidies have not decreased. China’s PV on-grid price has increased from the previous 0.72 yuan per kilowatt-hour to 1.15 yuan. I don't know how to spread the information that government subsidies have fallen sharply.

Therefore, why should the photovoltaic industry enter the "winter"?

Now, it is not the market that has a problem. Nor is it a problem with the government. It is a problem with the company itself. Enterprises do not observe market demand, blind expansion, low-cost dumping, is the problem. This results in a sharp decline in corporate profits, even for the continued, will also cause the disruption of the industrial chain, a lot of upstream companies have become a problem of survival. For example, some of China's well-known crystalline silicon manufacturing companies are struggling, and some international companies are bankrupt. This has brought about international trade frictions. If the days of business are good, why is this so?

In 2012, the global installed capacity of photovoltaics is expected to increase by at least 20% from 2011. Because China's PV installed capacity is small, it is expected that the newly installed PV capacity will double in 2012, ie, 3 to 5 GW. Even so, China's PV manufacturing companies will not be better in 2012. The surplus of photovoltaic industry in China has been very serious. However, it is still expanding its production. Chinese companies are competing to be the first in the industry. Without market restrictions, they will expand without restrictions. In the end, each company has only got the last drop of blood, big companies can't get big, and small businesses can't go.

Photovoltaic Manufacturing Industry Ebb Tide

At present, there is a serious overcapacity in China's photovoltaic manufacturing industry, and there are seven or eight hundred enterprises in the total number of enterprises. In 2012, China's PV manufacturing companies will collapse in large numbers. In this round of closures, there will be three situations. First, a group of wise companies will choose to withdraw in a timely manner. A failure is not a bad thing for the company. If the industry cannot survive, then it will withdraw in a timely manner. In a financial term, it is a "stop loss." Second, a group of enterprises did not withdraw in a timely manner. Banks suspended their loans and the capital chain broke up and had to withdraw from bankruptcy. Third, a group of companies will choose hardship. If the market is not good, or choose to lay off, or choose to stop production. In China, there are no extra costs for layoffs. For example, before the workers were on vacation for half a month, they are now on holiday for three months and the company stopped production. There are many options for companies to choose from. These are all much less expensive than bankruptcy. In China, entrepreneurs are always afraid of bankruptcy, thinking that this will have nothing, and therefore do not want to bankrupt reorganization. However, in Europe and the United States, bankruptcy and reorganization of enterprises is a very good choice.

At present, ** is in the light of heat-generating electricity, and believes that China's photovoltaic industry is in the doldrums, and the light and heat can shoulder the mission of saving the solar energy industry. In fact, compared with 30 years ago, there has been no substantive progress in CSP technology and it is still difficult to promote it on a large scale. In addition, in China, CSP is not as complete as the photovoltaic industry has established a complete industrial chain, any area without the support of the industry chain is not reliable. Therefore, the application of CSP in the short term is limited. In particular, CSP must have sunlight, land and water resources to operate. If all three are available, what can we do with such quality resources?