Strong support under the aluminum to repair the barrier

[yesterday disk]

Day plate: The opening price of Al1607 contract on Wednesday was 11,875 tons, the highest price was 12,130 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 11,875 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 12,120 yuan/ton, up 1.76%; the transaction volume was 199,000 lots and the position amounted to 253,000 lots.

In the night session, the opening price of the Al1607 contract was 12,145 tons on Wednesday, the highest price was 12,160 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 12,050 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 12,090 yuan/ton, down by 0.25%; the turnover was 55,000 lots, and the position was 252,000 lots.

[Overnight disk]

On Wednesday, LME March aluminum opened at $1560.00/ton, with the highest price at $1578.50/ton, the lowest price at $1560.00/ton, and the closing price at $1565.00/ton, up 0.38%.

Basics

1. Spot price quotes mixed up on Wednesday.

The Yangtze River spot is 11,940-11,980 yuan / ton, with an average price of 11,960 yuan / ton, 30 yuan / ton; Shanghai spot: 11,960-12,000 yuan / ton, average price 1,1980 yuan / ton, unchanged; Guangdong South Reserve (South China): 12,210- 12,310 yuan / ton, the average price of 12,260 yuan / ton, ↑ 40 yuan / ton.

2. On Wednesday, the premium for 12125 spot premiums in recent months was discounted, and the premium for 12120 spot premiums was discounted.

In the Yangtze River, the price of water was 1605 yuan/ton in the previous month (previous day premium was RMB 20/ton), and the main price was RMB 1607 yuan/ton (160 yuan/ton in the previous trading day).

3. SHFE aluminum futures stocks decreased by 4,702 tons on Wednesday.

SHFE designated delivery warehouse aluminum futures inventory at 151,000 tons, an increase of 4702 tons, of which Shanghai stocks decreased 3685 tons to 54,000 tons, Jiangsu stocks decreased 1017 tons to 78,000 tons, Guangdong stock was 0.46 tons unchanged, Zhejiang stocks 14,000 tons unchanged.

4. LME aluminum futures stocks decreased by 7,375 tons on Wednesday.

LME aluminum stocks were at 2.598 million tons on Wednesday, a decrease of 7,375 tons compared with the previous day. The number of cancelled warehouses was 1.074 million tons, and the cancellation warehouse receipts ratio dropped to 41.34%.

5. Overnight news

[Xinhua News Agency: What economic signals are released by the “L” model? 】

In recent days, authoritative sources have stated that China's economic operation cannot be a "U" type, and it is even less likely to be a "V" type, but an "L" type trend. The "L" type is a stage, not a year or two. Xinhua News Agency issued a statement saying that this has released three signals: First, the economy will grow steadily in a reasonable range, second, macroeconomic policies will remain stable, and third, it will focus on promoting supply-side structural reforms. (Xinhua News Agency)

Economist Austin Goolsbee: Fed's FOMC hawks believe inflation is on the rise

Economist Austin Goolsbee: Members of the Federal Reserve's FOMC hawks believe that the United States is in an upward trend in inflation.

The Fed should let inflation rise above the 2% target. (Wall Street News)

[LME Base Metal]

LME copper closed up 0.5% at $4708/ton.

Aluminum LME closed up 0.6% at $1564/ton.

Zinc in LME closed up 3.0% at $1,903/tonne.

LME lead rose by 1.5% to $1,774/ton.

Nickel in LME closed up 2.1% at $8885/ton.

LME tin rose 0.5% to 17,250 US dollars / ton.

【technical analysis】

Shanghai Aluminum opened higher and closed lower on Wednesday. The short-term moving averages are in short order, MACD's green column is slightly reduced, and Japanese KDJ shorts are arranged but turned upwards. Zhou KDJ is short.

[operation suggestion]

Shanghai Aluminum stabilized its rebound yesterday, but the night session was weak. From the perspective of short-term supply and demand, aluminum production is less than expected, and it is expected that the current tight supply situation will continue. The mismatch between supply and demand is still the main logic supporting aluminum prices; but from the perspective of recent market sentiment and macro-level performance, CPI Both the PMI and the import and export data are not satisfactory. In addition, the black plunge has already falsified the expectation of the U-shaped reversal of the previous period, and at the same time confirmed that the recovery of the economy was only a periodic and seasonal recovery. However, the current fundamentals of the aluminum industry chain are still strong. The aluminum prices fell too quickly in the previous period and there have been reparatory gains yesterday. It is expected that there will still be room for growth; domestic commodities have also stabilized in recent days, and short-term risk sentiment has returned.