Six new materials "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" received key support Create an intensive new material industry cluster and a large international leading enterprise
People familiar with the matter recently revealed that the “12th Five-Year Plan†for new materials is expected to be announced in September. During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period, the state will implement major new materials projects, focusing on supporting high-strength light-alloy materials, high-performance steel materials, functional membrane materials, new power battery materials, carbon fiber composite materials, and rare earth functional materials. In addition, a new generation of information functional materials and materials such as biomedicine, energy conservation and environmental protection, and green building materials are also expected to be supported by major engineering projects.
According to reports, the development goal of the new material during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†period is 70% self-sufficiency. Each sub-sector supported by major engineering projects is expected to form a scale of 100 billion yuan to 1 trillion yuan through 5-10 years. At the end of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", the output value of the new materials industry is expected to reach several trillion yuan.
According to industry insiders, from the current situation, the output of new materials in China is very large, but due to the relatively backward technical level, it cannot be called a material power. In order to highlight key points, increase support, and promote the rapid development of China's key materials industry, the country will continue to focus on new energy, biomedicine, next-generation information technology, energy conservation and environmental protection, modern transportation, including new energy vehicles and aerospace and other important development areas. Planning for new material requirements, the state will implement major projects for new materials, and support key materials.
During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, China's new materials industry will strengthen innovation capacity building, improve industrialization level, build a new material industry system with Chinese characteristics, build an intensive new material industry cluster and international large-scale leading enterprises, and strive to achieve key cores. Continuous breakthroughs in technology and the promotion of localization of key materials to further explore the international market and enhance international competitiveness.
New materials industry should strengthen the combination of production and research A few years ago, the terms such as lithium batteries and rare earth permanent magnets may not be familiar to people. Today, they are already one of the subjects sought after in the secondary market. Obviously, new materials together with many emerging industries have become an important engine for the future development of China's economy. However, as far as the development of the new materials industry is concerned, while the state continues to introduce various incentive policies, the new materials industry itself needs to strengthen the integration of research and development and industry, so that more products can achieve industrialization.
At present, China is in the transition period of the mid-to-late industrialization transition. The proportion of traditional industries is gradually decreasing, while the high-end emerging industries are facing rapid development. As the foundation of manufacturing industry, materials are of great significance for industrial upgrading and transformation. New materials are indispensable to play an important role in promoting the development of high-tech industries.
The relevant data shows that although the current output value of new materials in China accounts for a small proportion of GDP, it is about 2%, but the development speed is relatively fast. The industry expects that the output value of new materials in China will maintain a growth rate of more than 20% per year in the future. By 2015, the market size of China's new materials industry is expected to reach several trillion yuan.
In terms of current developments, driven by policy guidance and market input, the new materials industry is constantly being refined, the industrial chain is extending upstream and downstream, and the market scale has been expanded. The new materials industry includes light alloy materials, hard alloy materials, new precious metals, new semiconductor materials, lithium-ion materials and hydrogen storage electrode alloy materials, and new materials such as ruthenium-based materials, covering aerospace and electronic information. Automobile, machinery, energy and other fields.
In order to promote industrial development, China has given various support to the new materials industry in fiscal and taxation policies, industrial policies and scientific research inputs. However, the problems facing the industry are beginning to appear one by one.
First and foremost, the new materials industry has not yet achieved a resource-intensive to technology-intensive transformation. This is mainly reflected in the fact that some high-quality, high-tech, high value-added new products are still mainly dependent on imports, and the market demand for new domestic materials has not been met.
At the same time, the connection of new materials from research to industrial applications is not smooth, and there is no effective connection mechanism between production and research. It still needs to be strengthened in marketing and application. Taking new building materials as an example, due to the high cost of products, coupled with industry standards and usage habits, the domestic market acceptance is low and has not been widely promoted.
In addition, the independent research and development of new materials in China is still limited, and many new materials still rely on imports, which restricts the development of related industries to a certain extent. According to industry insiders, due to the scattered industry, the national “12th Five-Year†major science and technology project does not contain special materials for new materials, which may have certain impact on research and breakthroughs in the field of new materials.
Obviously, while intensifying the encouragement policy of the new materials industry, it is also necessary to improve relevant supporting incentive mechanisms, increase support for independent research and development, introduce preferential policies to encourage enterprises to carry out technological innovation, and help enterprises gradually open up markets and upgrade new materials. Cognition and influence, so that R&D and industry can be effectively combined.
Super hard new materials foster investment opportunities
China's new material industry scales faster and faster. New materials are an important basis for the development of strategic emerging industries.
The ultra-hard new material industry chain fosters investment opportunities. The NdFeB industrial chain is a successful investment case from 2009 to 2010. The upstream price hike, the global production capacity of the middle reaches to China, the explosive growth of downstream demand, so that the entire industry chain has investment opportunities. The development of different new materials sub-sectors has common characteristics. At present, the development of the super-hard material industry chain is close to the state before the NdFeB explosion, which will give birth to investment opportunities.
Go upstream to the oligopoly and look at "price increases." The upstream of the superhard material is diamond, and the upstream of the NdFeB is rare earth. Both of them are gradually moving towards oligopoly in supply, and there is steady high growth in demand. Although diamond prices will not show a sharp increase similar to rare earths, the future trend will continue to be “bullishâ€, which is good for companies with diamond business.
The midstream has made China's quality and sees “overseas market expansionâ€. The middle reaches of superhard materials are composite sheets, which are similar in development to NdFeB around 2003. At that time, the performance of domestic products broke through 360kJ/m3, which broke into the international mainstream market and prompted the global production capacity to gradually shift to China. At present, China's leading super-hard materials companies are striving to enter the international mainstream market on blades and oil tablets. If successful, it will also promote the production of composite sheets to China.
The downstream demand is growing, look at "high-end product development." The rise of NdFeB is closely related to the development of new energy vehicles, wind power equipment and energy-saving motors in the past two years. The downstream of superhard materials is also growing rapidly. In terms of the amount of demand, the replacement of traditional abrasives and tools such as cutters, drill bits and saw blades is the main factor, and the compound growth rate is expected to be 25%. In terms of economic benefits, China's diamond wire saws, high-precision high-speed grinding wheels, high-end professional saw blades, single-crystal wire drawing dies, single-crystal turning tools and other new super-hard tools are far from the development level of foreign countries, and investment opportunities will be even more obvious.
Related companies face rapid growth opportunities and have investment value. At present, the entire super-hard material industry chain faces opportunities for rapid growth. Listed companies such as Sifangda have financing advantages compared with competitors, can achieve faster development, and have certain investment value.
Risk Warning: Superhard materials companies are small in scale, mostly on the GEM. The valuation of the GEM is significantly higher than the blue-chip market, and this year there is a systematic risk of overall decline. The development and promotion of high-end products such as composite sheets and diamond wire saws have technical and market uncertainties. Strategic industry is booming New materials are an important foundation for the development of strategic emerging industries. The new material is the pioneer of leading the development of high-tech industry in recent years. It is a strategic key area and a new economic growth point in China in the future. The development of new industries is inseparable from the development and application of new materials.
The new chemical materials have superior performance, high technical barriers and broad prospects. As an important part of the new material industry, the chemical new materials industry represents the future development direction of the chemical industry. New chemical materials are mainly used in emerging industries to achieve higher performance requirements, so it is technically difficult, with high technical barriers and high industrial concentration.
China's new chemical materials have high dependence on foreign countries and have broad prospects for future development. At present, the overall self-sufficiency rate of domestic chemical new materials is about 56%, of which the self-sufficiency rate of new chemical materials in new fields is only 52%, and the self-sufficiency rate of engineering plastics and special rubbers is only 35% and 30%. In combination with the national “Twelfth Five-Year Planâ€, we focus on investment opportunities in the fine-molecular industry with high import dependence, breakthroughs in domestic enterprise technology, and explosive growth in downstream demand, including high-performance special fiber materials, modified plastics, and engineering plastics. , polyurethane, lithium battery materials, etc.
High-performance fiber barriers are high, and aramid fiber is the first to achieve mass production. The Yantai spandex annual output of 1,000 tons of para-aramid industrialization project has been operating normally since the end of May. The commissioning of the aramid 1414 project marks a leap forward in the localization of aramid fiber. Yantai spandex has become the only scale in China. The production of meta-aramid, the company has become China's largest aramid fiber industry base.
Demand for engineering plastics is strong, and technology leaders are the most profitable. Some varieties of domestic special engineering plastics have made great breakthroughs. Shenzhen Huicheng's TLCP liquid crystal polymer materials will also be mass-produced. The mass production of special engineering plastics will break the pattern of international giants' oligopoly, and the investment value of related enterprises is significant.
Building energy-saving demand Blue Ocean opens up the long-term growth space of polyurethane materials. After the construction insulation market was launched, the demand for polymerized MDI and rigid foam polyethers ushered in explosive growth. The global MDI demand growth rate obviously exceeds the corresponding GDP growth rate. International SRI consulting institutions predict that the global MDI demand will grow at an average annual rate of 5% or more in the next five years, and in the next three years, only the Yantai Wanhua MDI decoration in the world will be installed in the next three years. Put into production, the global average annual supply growth rate is less than 5%, MDI supply and demand will continue to be tight, and the industry boom is expected to continue to rise.
In terms of lithium battery materials, new energy vehicles have driven demand for lithium-ion materials by more than 10 times. At present, the positive electrode material gross profit rate of lithium battery materials exceeds 30%, the negative electrode material exceeds 20%, the electrolyte reaches about 40%, the separator exceeds 70%, and the lithium hexafluorophosphate electrolyte material is about 70%. At present, the bottleneck of the lithium battery material industry is relatively high. At present, the positive electrode and the negative electrode are in a state of balance between supply and demand, and the electrolyte and separator are the most technically important links, and the products are in short supply.
Based on the above analysis, we recommend that the spandex differentiation ratio increase the Yantai spandex which reduces the periodic and aramid 1414 fiber evaluation.
Chemical new materials industry: refrigerant price declines focus on 5 shares Report summary:
Most refrigerant products have fallen in price. Due to the gradual entry into the off-season, the decrease in exports and the increase in factory inventory, the price of fluorine chemical products under the leadership of refrigerant R22 continued to decline in mid-July. The recent transaction price of R22 East China was 22,000 yuan/ton.
The price of silicone products has stabilized at a low level. At present, the silicone market is mainly affected by the following factors. First, the cost of raw materials, methanol and other raw materials continue to increase; Second, the industry has reduced production and production limits; Third, the operating rate in the downstream construction in the summer and other areas has increased, and demand has also recovered.
Polyurethane industry: benefited from the introduction of the “12th Five-Year Plan†energy conservation and emission reduction work plan. The comprehensive work plan for energy conservation and emission reduction in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†has been introduced recently, which will make the polyurethane industry chain have more room for development. In addition, Bayer's annual production of 250,000 tons of toluene diisocyanate (TDI) project at the Shanghai-based integrated base will be put into operation in the near future. By then, the total domestic production capacity is expected to reach 880,000 tons/year, and the market's supply shortage will be changed.
Glass fiber industry: EU anti-dumping investigation on glass fiber cloth in China. On July 28th, the EU initiated an anti-dumping investigation on the preparation/stitching of fiberglass fabrics originating in China. The dumping investigation period of this case is from April 1, 2010 to March 31, 2011. In this case, the EU initially selected the United States as a surrogate country to calculate the normal value of the products involved in China. This is the fourth trade remedy investigation initiated by the EU's exports to China this year.
Important events related to the company this week. The sixth working conference of the Henan Electric Vehicle Industry Alliance hosted by Oake was held in Jiaozuo City.
Breakthrough in high-end materials technology in key industries to achieve import substitution Investment points
China's industry is generally large but not strong, and key industries are facing the pressure of upgrading and transformation. China's GDP has surpassed Japan to become the second largest economic power, but "industrial is not strong", the industrial added value rate is 26.5%, lower than the developed countries and the global average of 40%, 35%. The key domestic industries include automobile, steel, electronic information, logistics, textiles, equipment manufacturing, non-ferrous metals, light industry, petrochemicals, ships, etc., accounting for 80% of industrial added value, 1/3 of GDP, upgrading of key industries, Transformation and upgrading the quality and proportion of high-end products will be the focus of development during the 12th Five-Year Plan period.
High-end materials have certain technical/technical barriers, but the import substitution space is huge. In the future, it will become more difficult or even impossible for the domestic market to exchange foreign capital for advanced technology. This requires the realization of independent technological breakthroughs in key high-end materials. The core content of high-end materials lies in formulas, processing techniques and other parameters. The technical/process barriers are often just a layer of "window paper", which is not insurmountable. The development of high-end materials technology in China is relatively backward, and the dependence on imports is very high. Even if there is no high growth rate in the demand market, import substitution can provide enterprises with blue ocean development. In the long run, after import substitution, we can further expand overseas markets based on cost advantages.
Synthetic diamonds are industrial teeth, and the potential for high-end products is huge. China's synthetic diamond production accounts for 70% of the global market, but high-grade products are insufficient. With the increase in the proportion of domestic high-grade products, the expansion of downstream applications, and the gradual introduction of high-end products such as diamond cutting lines, diamond films, and gem-quality synthetic diamonds, we believe that the domestic diamond industry will usher in industrial upgrading within a few years. . Nuclear power materials will benefit from construction and speed up, and the proportion of localization will continue to increase. Domestic manufacture of nuclear voltage vessel, steam generator, control drive mechanism, nuclear pump valve, emergency diesel engine, etc., will be for nuclear grade materials (carbon steel, low alloy steel, stainless steel, nickel based alloy, titanium and its alloys). , zirconium alloy, etc.) proposed localization requirements, and with the large-scale construction of nuclear power plants in the later stage, the import dependence is expected to gradually decline.
The vacancy of high-end electronic information materials is still in its infancy. Taking TFT-LCD as an example, the material cost accounts for more than 70% of the total cost of the device, and the glass substrate and liquid crystal material have a gross profit margin of 30%, which is a very critical part. However, China is still in a blank and initial stage, and more than 90% of the materials need to be imported.
A variety of new materials are needed in the high-speed rail sector, and carbon fiber materials are of strategic importance. At present, the wheels, bearings, and bows used by high-speed rails are also dependent on imports. In terms of vehicle body materials, fiber composite materials have better mechanical properties and conform to the trend of lightweight body. China's carbon fiber raw materials and composite materials have been heavily dependent on imports, with a ratio of more than 90%. The production capacity of high-end products above T300 is enhanced, and it has great strategic significance and import substitution potential in military, aerospace and automobile fields.
Investment ideas and risk factors. The high-end materials of key industries have potential downstream demand, and there is a certain period of stagnation in research and development. Short-term is suitable for a certain technical layout, and it is necessary to track progress in the long run.
The risks lie at the enterprise level, the uncertainty of successful R&D, and the breakthrough of companies in the same industry.
New chemical materials industry: "Nuggets" high performance fiber Demand for high-performance fiber composites in China will grow stronger, especially in the aerospace, automotive, and wind power sectors. According to the JEC Group's research report, in the past few years, half of the global demand for composite materials has increased in Asia. Asia, especially China, has seen rapid growth. It is expected that China will account for 43% of the global composites market growth by 2013; The proportion of transportation is relatively small, accounting for only 5%, which is lower than the global average of 24%; the proportion in the industrial equipment sector is 10%, which is also lower than the global average of 26%. At present, the proportion of high-performance fiber on the aircraft is 50%-80%. Boeing expects that the number of Chinese transport aircraft will be three times that of the original in 2025; domestic wind power and automotive fields are in high demand, and high-performance fiber composite materials as a kind The advanced lightweight and high-strength materials meet the trend of large-capacity development of wind turbines, and cater to the development direction of automobile safety and light weight.
The world's three high-performance fibers: 1) Carbon fiber: At present, global carbon fiber production capacity has been oversupplied. Although domestic carbon fiber import dependence rate is as high as 83.9% and import substitution space is large, domestic carbon fiber technology still needs to be broken. Currently, the price of imported carbon fiber products is approaching domestic production. cost. We believe that if carbon fiber prices remain low, it will promote the popularization of carbon fiber in high-end industries and industries. As the deep processing of each stage of carbon fiber has a high value-added, carbon fiber downstream composite materials companies will directly benefit.
2) Aramid fiber: At present, the global aramid fiber has been oversupply, but the supply and demand situation of Aramid 1414 is still tight. Domestic aramid fiber consumption is strong, with a compound annual growth rate of about 30%. We believe that with the increase in supply, domestic high-temperature filter materials with aramid 1313 or overcapacity, aramid 1313 in the need for a certain technical content of the protection field, aramid paper high-end products application market potential; domestic aramid 1414 Mainly relying on imports, supply is the key. 3) Ultra-high molecular polyethylene fiber: currently the global super
The supply of polymer polyethylene fiber is in short supply, the supply gap is more than 90,000 tons; the domestic supply gap is about 8,000 tons, and some domestic enterprises have reached the world advanced level, and supply is the key.
Investment strategy and key companies. Due to the high performance requirements of high-performance fibers and composite materials, complex production processes and high technical barriers, it is a key factor for future industrial upgrading. It is recommended that investors pay attention to companies with technological and scale advantages, such as aerospace composite materials, technology monopoly. A company with obvious advantages: Boyun new material.
Interlining
Interlining, Woven Double-DOT Fusible Interlining Black (W75D), China Interlining
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