Abstract "The electric revolution has been changed for more than ten years. This wolf is really coming." This is the most disturbing voice in the year of creating the best performance. "Excess" becomes "the wolf is really coming"...
“Electricity has changed for more than a decade, this time the wolf is really coming.†This is the most disturbing voice in the year of creating the best performance.
"Excess" has become the main reason for "the wolf is really coming." The chairman of Huadian Group highlighted at its 2015 work meeting that electricity is now an excess economy.
The description is that in the past, electricity was a shortage of economy. The project and scale expansion were the key, and the layout, fields and boundary conditions of development were not very concerned. Now is the surplus economy. The sharp decline in the utilization hours of equipment is the most direct manifestation. The supply and demand of electricity and coal are becoming more stable. The domestic power growth space has been limited. The wave of clean energy development is very rapid. The clean and efficient use of coal has greatly exceeded expectations. .
Guodian Group, the second-largest power generation company, also judged that the problem of overcapacity in power generation is outstanding, and the country’s installed power capacity is relatively surplus. Its chairman, Qiao Baoping, said that state-owned enterprises are undergoing five trend changes: the growth rate has changed from fast to steady, the development mode has changed from scale expansion to quality and efficiency, and the layout of industrial structure has changed from large to omnidirectional. The growth momentum is driven by factors to transform into reform and innovation, and the market space is changed from domestic to internal and external. This is an inevitable reflection of the staged characteristics of the development of the enterprise and an inevitable requirement for adapting to the new normal and future competition.
Another power generation group, China Power Investment Co., determined that the growth in electricity consumption in 2015 continued to slow down. The new normal of slowing domestic economic growth will also bring electricity growth to a new normal of lower levels. At the same time, the nation's power installed capacity is still growing at an annual rate of more than 8%, while the number of hours of power generation use is generally declining, power surplus is prominent, and market competition will become increasingly fierce.
Overcapacity, coupled with a slowdown in growth, Cao Peiyu, general manager of Huaneng Group, put forward the concept of “the energy and electricity market enters the new normalâ€. The new normal of the electricity market is characterized by a slowdown in the growth of power demand, an increase in market competition, and an industry transformation and upgrading.
Because of the large coal and electrolytic aluminum industry, the new normal of the power market may have more tests for China Power Investment Corporation. Under the dual pressures of economic downturn and overcapacity, commodity prices are unlikely to bottom out in the short term. It is expected that the downturn in the two major sectors of coal and aluminum will continue, and the pressure on China Power Investment is still relatively large.
China Power Investment Group also made an in-depth analysis of the new normal of the power market. A deputy general manager put forward the "three-phase superposition" when summing up the speech, that is, the slowdown period of power growth, the upgrading of industrial structure, and the price of coal and aluminum ( 12980, -60.00, -0.46%) periodic low trough. In addition to the three issues, there may be excess industrial digestive periods.
The period of surplus power is the best window for promoting reform. The advent of real market competition is the second "wolf" that power generation companies have to face.
In the near term, under the current relatively loose power supply and demand situation, the increase in market trading power will lead to the reduction of electricity plans, which will affect the price of electricity and unit utilization. Marketization will make the problem more prominent.
In the past, the power plan was very strong, mainly relying on the power plan to increase the income, the market transaction power accounted for a small proportion. With the advancement of power market reforms, the market share will become higher and higher, competition will only become more intense, and the main body of electricity will shift from planned electricity to market electricity. The power competition will be changed from looking for the government to looking for the market and looking for users. The elements of market competition will be transformed from the competition of electricity planning to the comprehensive competition of factors such as cost, environmental protection and safety. This is a relatively unfamiliar issue for power generation companies that have lived in the planning system for too long.
In the long run, the future is full of more uncertainty. The impact of power reform on the power generation group is particularly significant and far-reaching. Power generation companies will be pushed to the forefront of the market, especially the competition for thermal power will become more intense.
Guodian Group judged that the power system reform will push power generation enterprises to the market. The general idea of ​​reform is to manage the middle and let go of both ends. The power plan will be released, and thermal power companies will enter the direct trading market. Enterprises must look for electricity in the market, which will inevitably lead to "selling" electricity prices. The pricing power price should also be decentralized. The transmission and distribution price should be determined locally. The on-grid price market should be determined. Local governments must use electricity as an economic lever to drive local economic growth by lowering electricity prices.
Although the wolf is coming, the two years are still an important opportunity for the upgrading and transformation of the power industry. The biggest suspense now is who can live and seize this opportunity to live well in the future competition.
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