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The slowdown in growth rate is not a "double bottoming"
Q: Please comment on the overall situation of China's macroeconomic operation in the first half of the year.
A: From the published data, the macro economy in the first half of the year has generally maintained a basic trend of steady and rapid growth. From the perspective of the dynamic structure of economic growth, domestic demand and external demand are more coordinated. Our economic growth in the first half of the year was mainly driven by domestic demand. With the slow and moderate recovery of the global economy, our export situation has begun to improve, which has made the internal and external needs more coordinated overall.
Q: In the first half of the year, our GDP increased by 11.1% year-on-year. However, GDP in the second quarter increased by 10.3% year-on-year, down 1.6% from the first quarter. What do you think is the reason for the fall?
A: First of all, it is a reason for the base. If these cardinal factors are removed, then the growth data for the second quarter of this year and the first quarter should be said to be similar. Second, 11.9% in the first quarter of this year, including 11.1% in the first half. If we maintain such a high speed throughout the year and exceed the potential growth level, the pressure on the total economic demand will be too great. Therefore, macroeconomic regulation and control will also appropriately slow down the growth rate in the direction. The management that we introduced in the first half of the year, including the management of market liquidity, the clean-up of local financing platforms, and the compression of excess energy-intensive industries, have all contributed to this relatively rapid growth rate.
Q: Will the slowdown in the growth rate bring about a “double dip†of the economy?
A: Judging from the trend of the past 30 years, our average annual growth rate is 9.9%, so this potential growth level is generally considered to be between 9% and 10%, and with the increase of China's economic base, the potential growth level There may be a callback. The 11.1% level in the first half of the year should be said to be above the potential growth level, so there is no need to worry about a moderate callback. What is the meaning of this bottom? If you return to 6.5% in the first quarter of last year, this is called "bottoming out". This year obviously will not return to this speed, so there is no possibility of "double dip." A reasonable correction of the economy is conducive to structural adjustment and is conducive to balanced and sustainable growth. In this sense, it is a good thing, so don't worry too much.
Positive factors affecting the stock market will appear
Q: In the past few months, the A-share market has performed poorly. What impact do you think the economic operation in the second half of the year will bring to the A-share market?
A: From the internal point of view, including our strengthening of market liquidity management, real estate regulation, clearing local financing platforms, and compressing high-energy-consuming industries, the market fundamentals may have certain impacts. The Shanghai Composite Index fell from 3,277 points at the beginning of the year to 2,319 points, which may also exceed the expectations of many market participants. Then, together with the previous media's various forecasts for the economic downturn in the second half of the year, it may further strengthen the expectations of people in this market. Therefore, I think that some positive factors affecting the stock market in the second half of the year will gradually appear, which may play a positive role in the gradual improvement of the stock market.
In addition, some initiatives to promote economic development in the second half of the year will also play a positive role in promoting the development of the capital market. For example, at the industrial level, the country is now developing strategic emerging industry plans, such as new energy, energy conservation and environmental protection, biomedicine, a new generation of information networks, new materials, etc. These emerging industries have investment value and growth. Very strong.
In addition, with the implementation of the strategy of “National Western Development Strategy New Decadeâ€, many large-scale investment projects will be launched in the western region. Some sectors will also become investment strategies, which will also play a positive role in the recovery of fundamental expectations.
Regulating real estate to create more investment channels
Q: From the introduction of the housing control policy to the present, some effects have already begun to appear. What do you think is the direction of the next phase of the housing control policy?
A: Real estate not only needs the regulation of such short-term policies, but more importantly, the structure of the real estate market in the future requires an institutional framework. After our housing reform in 1998, the marketization of real estate is very fast. But in this process, we may have missing something, that is, affordable housing. In the past, this piece of ours was not enough. In the future institutional framework, there are several aspects that need to be done:
First, China's housing system must conform to China's national conditions and cannot copy the American model. Second, we must adhere to the direction of marketization. Can't go back because the house price is too high now. Third, we must rebuild the affordable housing system. This year, the Prime Minister also mentioned in the government work report that it is necessary to increase the number of affordable housing, especially the low-rent housing and public rental housing, so that low-income people "have their homes." Fourth, the real estate market also needs macroeconomic regulation and control, and cannot be completely adjusted by the market. This adjustment is mainly for excessive investment and speculative demand. This topic has arisen. Why are investment and speculative needs concentrated in the real estate sector? This has requirements for the innovation of our capital market. Can we develop more industrial investment funds and let investors have investment channels. Including the international market, including QDI to further broaden its investment channels. So now we are going to create more investment channels for investors.
The economic situation in the second half of the year is still complicated
Q: How do you predict the trend of China's economy in the second half of the year?
A: The economy has maintained steady growth in the first half of this year, and there has not been a significant decline. This has created a good foundation for economic growth in the second half of the year. However, the current economic situation is very complicated. There is no obvious decline in the economy. It does not mean that our economic operation has entered a channel of stable growth, nor does it mean that our economic operation has fundamentally improved. Therefore, we still have a full understanding of the complexity of the economic situation.
Judging from the trend in the second half of the year, there are still many favorable conditions. First of all, the global economic recovery is becoming more and more clear. In particular, the International Monetary Fund has recently adjusted its monetary growth forecast from 4.2% to 4.6%. The trend of this recovery is clear.
Secondly, from a domestic perspective, the basic direction of our policy remains unchanged, and we can maintain the overall easing of macroeconomic policies. This is clear.
The third important point is that while the government is actively and effectively regulating, our market-driven forces are also increasing, and the dynamic structure of economic growth is undergoing positive changes. The growth rate of private investment exceeds the growth rate of state-owned investment, private capital tends to be active, and market forces are beginning to play a role. These are some positive factors that continue to improve economic growth in the second half of the year.
Of course, there are also many complicated factors. In the second half of the year, the economy still faces the problem of high base. Whether we want a short-term speed or a longer-term speed is a choice.
At the same time, we are still facing certain inflationary pressures in the second half of the year, so we need to continue to adhere to the management of such inflation expectations.
In addition, since our investment of 4 trillion yuan last year contributed a lot to the economy, this year, with the overcapacity problem and investment growth, the industry will have a certain decline in the second half of the year. This fall may have an impact on the economy. .
Finally, from the enterprise level, due to the rise in wage costs and the adjustment of the exchange rate formation mechanism, raw material prices are still at a certain high level, which will have a certain impact on the production costs of enterprises. These factors are all considered in the second half of the year.
But overall, I personally have great confidence in the economic growth this year. The most conservative estimate is that China's economic growth should be no more than 9% for the whole year. I think it will be between 9.5% and 10%. If we don't have unexpected big events, I personally have confidence.
A few days ago, the National Bureau of Statistics released China's macroeconomic data for the first half of the year. How should we examine the implications behind these data, and what impact will these data have on China's macroeconomic policies in the second half of the year? What is the economic situation in the second half of the year? Wang Yiming, vice president of the Macroeconomic Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, interpreted this.