August 27 Steel Market Forecast

First, the macro news briefing 1, the US durable goods orders fell more than expected in July. The data released by the US Department of Commerce in Washington on Monday showed that durable goods orders fell by 7.3% in July, the largest decline since August 2012, a more-than-expected drop, ending the momentum of three-month straight gains, indicating a strong trend in manufacturing. slow.

2. The United States stated that Syrian government forces use chemical weapons. On Monday, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry stated that the Syrian government used chemical weapons against the opposition and that Obama is considering countermeasures.

3, Statistics Bureau said that the economy has shown signs of stabilization. The spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics Sheng Laiyun at the Foreign Press Information Center of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs introduced the economic situation in China. He said that in the second half of the year, China’s economy will continue its “steady and steady advancement” trend, and it will be able to achieve the year’s expected development goals.

4. Credit Suisse raised its forecast for China's economic growth to 7.6% and expects real estate to pick up. The International Investment Bank Credit Suisse report released today said that China's economic growth has bottomed out, although the upward trend is not strong. Credit Suisse also revised its forecast for China's GDP growth in 2013, which was revised upwards from 7.4% to 7.6%; the forecast for economic growth in 2014 was revised downward from 7.7% to 7.6%.

5. The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on this year's western development work on Monday, including improving policy measures, developing characteristic industries, accelerating the promotion of a number of transportation projects such as railways and highways, and deepening reforms.

Second, the relevant disk summary on Monday, the end of the Dow diving fell 0.43%, leading the consumer goods sector led the drop. The U.S. government stated that the Syrian government used chemical weapons against the opposition and said it would take measures. According to another report, the United States will reach the debt ceiling in October. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 63.97 points to close at 14,946.54 points, or 0.43%; the S&P 500 Index fell 6.71 points to close at 1,656.79 points, or 0.40%. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold prices for December delivery fell by $2.7 to close at $1393.1 per ounce. The price of crude oil for delivery in October fell by 0.5 US dollars to settle at US$105.92 per barrel. The British stock market was closed on a public holiday day. The closing price of LME copper in the previous trading day was $7,360/ton.

Third, the billet price trend early on the 27th: Yesterday, Tangshan general bill drop 10, this morning Changli Hongxing / Anfeng 3150, Tangshan Xinglong / Guoyi 3150 are tax-included factory; traders bare 3032 or so.

Fourth, the ore price trend Yesterday, the domestic ore market weakened steadily, partially fell slightly, the market wait and see slightly strong. The Hebei iron concentrate powder market was weak, and the purchases of businesses were reduced. Tangshan and Chengde were the first to drop prices. The market price of imported ore increased steadily, buyers’ enthusiasm for enquiry was relatively large, and transactions were more general. The price of 66% sour dry powder in the mainstream market in Tangshan is 1050 yuan. The current quotation of 63.5/63% Indian powder ore from the foreign mining market is around US$126. Tianjin Port's 63.5% Indian ore price is 960 yuan/ton, and 61.5% of PB ore price in Qingdao is 930 yuan/ton. Last trading day, Platts 62%, $139.50, +$1.00.

V. Coke price trend Yesterday, the domestic coke spot price remained stable overall and the market transactions were good. Near the end of the month, most steel mills are interested in stabilizing the purchase price of coke. Due to the weak downstream steel prices, the wait-and-see attitude is strong. The inventories of coke in Tianjin Port increased from the previous period. The operating rate of the main part of coke enterprises increased, and short-term resources concentrated in Hong Kong. Now the primary metallurgical coke in Shanxi Province is 1,290 yuan/ton; the quasi-class metallurgical coke is tax-included at 1,200 yuan; the Hebei Province, Hebei Province, the secondary metallurgical coke, 1,220 yuan; the Huaibei region, the secondary metallurgical coke is included in the tax price, 1,250 yuan; Metallurgical coke factory tax price 1290 yuan.

6. Threaded hot coils closed at the close of August 26th. The closing price of 25mm three-tier rebar in the Beijing market was 3,570 yuan/ton, which was a drop of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day; Shanghai market was 3,560 yuan/ton at the third-tier rebar market, compared with the previous day's price. Flat; Guangzhou three-tier rebar is 3870 yuan / ton, compared with the previous day prices fell 10 yuan / ton.

On August 26th, the closing price of 5.5mmQ235 hot-rolled coil in Shanghai market was 3,650 yuan/ton, which was a price increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; the closing price of hot coil in Tianjin market was 3,600 yuan/ton, up by 20 yuan/ton from the previous day; The music market closed at a closing price of 3,770 yuan/ton, which was the same as the previous day's price.

Seventh, screw analysis of large groups August 26, thread ** main contract 1401 higher than the previous day settlement price to open, to 3827 yuan opening, after the opening shock down, the highest touch 3848 yuan, the lowest probe to 3802 yuan, and finally It closed at 3,813 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous trading day, and ended the negative line. Volume 2048358 hand, has shrunk compared with the previous day, holdings 1536606 hand, reducing 17150 hands. It is estimated that today's price pressure will be 3,850 yuan/ton, and the support will be 3,800 yuan/ton.

On August 26th, the main document of the HR coil RB1311 was opened at 3,718 yuan. After the opening bell, the price rose to 3,735 yuan, the lowest reached 3,718 yuan, and finally closed at 3,731 yuan, up by 21 yuan over the previous trading day. Yang Xian. Volume 142410 hand, has shrunk compared with the previous day, holdings 166,020 hands, reducing 830 hands. It is expected that today's price pressure point will be 3748 yuan/ton, and the support point will be 3718 yuan/ton.

8. The spot price forecast predicts that today's Beijing market, the price of 25mm three-level rebar will fall by RMB 10/t to RMB 3,560/t; Shanghai's three-tier rebar offer will fall by RMB 10/t to RMB 3,550/t; Grade rebar market prices fell 10 yuan / ton, quoted at 3860 yuan / ton.

It is expected that the mainstream quotation for 5.5mmQ235 hot-rolled coils in the Shanghai market will be stable at around RMB 3,650/t. The price of hot-rolled coils in the Tianjin market will be stable at RMB 3,600/t. The quotation for hot-rolled coils in the Lecong market will be stable at around RMB 3,770/t.