Daily Comment: Steel futures weakly fell, steel spot also did not change

Today's point of view

Today, black commodity futures fell, with iron ore contracts falling less, coke falling more, and rebar main contracts significantly increasing their positions by more than 100,000. On the whole, the expectation of the steel mill to resume production is relatively strong, and the profit on the disk may be further narrowed. In terms of spot, the spot price of today's varieties has not changed, and the average price of rebar in major cities has dropped by 42 yuan/ton. Judging from the current situation, due to poor demand in the off-season, prices have repeatedly fallen, but due to the low inventory of steel mills and the market, there is no obvious panic, and the city's mentality is heavier. Whether the market is really reversed or not depends on the expansion rate of supply. The short-term adjustment space is gradually narrowed due to the support of cost and inventory. It is expected that the domestic steel price will be weakly operated tomorrow.

Macro hotspot

1. [Black futures closed down across the board, coke led the decline] coke closed down 3.9%, Shanghai nickel, rapeseed, coking coal fell more than 2%, glass, thread, Zheng coal, apple, Zheng cotton, hot coil, Shanghai aluminum, Shanghai zinc fell more than 1%, Zheng oil, manganese silicon, cotton yarn, Zheng alcohol, Shanghai copper, iron ore, eggs, Shanghai tin, sugar, etc. closed down. Ferrosilicon closed up 3.7%, soybean meal rose more than 2%, vegetable, Shanghai lead, bean two, plastic rose more than 1%, crude oil, palm, corn, beans, asphalt, rubber, Shanghai gold, etc. closed up.

2. [The market is fluctuating within a narrow range in the afternoon, with high delivery and strong new stocks.]

The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2,844.51 points, down 0.52%, with a turnover of 138.4 billion.

Shenzhen Component Index closed at 9339.37 points, up 0.16%, with a turnover of 187.4 billion.

The GEM closed at 1546.92 points, up 1.71%, with a turnover of 66.2 billion.

3. [Hangzhou suspends sales to enterprises and institutions and other institutions] On the afternoon of June 26, the Hangzhou Housing Security and Real Estate Administration issued a notice. Last night, three companies appeared in the public sales process of the Notarization of the Kowloon Cangjie Project. At the same time, the situation of winning the bid has caused great concern of netizens. The Hangzhou Municipal Real Estate Market Sustainable Development Coordination Group attaches great importance to this. It has contacted the municipal judicial department for the first time to ensure that the public notarization work is open, fair and just; in the scope of housing purchase restrictions, the sale of housing to enterprises and institutions and other institutions is suspended. (including commercial housing and second-hand housing), and require the municipal housing and housing management department to further study and improve relevant policies. Previously, Xi'an and Changsha suspended the sale of housing to enterprises and institutions and other institutions.

4. [China cuts import tariffs on some Asia-Pacific trade agreement countries] The State Council Tariff Commission: It is decided to apply "Asia" to imported goods originating in Bangladesh, India, Laos, South Korea and Sri Lanka from July 1, 2018. - Pacific Trade Agreement Second Amendment Agreement Rate. The notice will lower the soybean import tariffs of some Asia-Pacific countries and announce a list of other tariff reduction products. China will reduce the soybean import tariff rates of India, South Korea, Bangladesh, Laos and Sri Lanka from zero to zero from July 1. The list also includes chemicals, agricultural products, medical supplies, clothing, steel and aluminum products, which are subject to different levels of tariff cuts.

Market today

Raw material

Billet: The price of the national billet market is weakening. Shandong and Shanxi steel billets fell 10 yuan / ton, Tangshan, Jiangsu fell 40 yuan / ton. Today, Tangshan billet straight transaction is general, the stock spot is reduced from 3,650 yuan / ton in early trading to 3,630-3,640 yuan / ton. The transaction is difficult; the snail low volatility, the spot trading atmosphere is not good, the overall turnover of finished products is biased. weak. Today, Shandong steel billet dropped 10 yuan / ton, Q235 billet factory 3650 yuan / ton, individual steel mills do not accept orders, the overall order is weak, the billet is sent to the south, the middlemen cautiously wait and see.

Imported mines: The early import mine market is relatively deserted, and traders are motivated in general, mostly based on firm bargaining. The mainstream price of PB powder in Shandong port is 460 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of PB powder in Tangshan port is 465 yuan/ton. The enquiry was relatively unclear. At the beginning of the week, the market sentiment was weak, and the cold weather in the afternoon continued to improve.

Steel spot

Construction steel: Today's domestic construction steel prices fell across the board. In terms of specific prices, the average price of 25 major cities nationwide was 4,139 yuan/ton, which was 33 yuan/ton lower than that of the previous trading day. The declines in East China and South China were obvious, and the rest of the region fell slightly, with a drop of 10-30 yuan/ Tons of tons. Today, the snails fluctuated at a low level, the market performance was not good, and the market price of many places was lowered twice. However, the transaction did not see any significant improvement. At present, the increase in social inventories and the continued sluggish market demand have led to an increase in merchants' shipping pressures. After the price cuts, market transactions have not improved significantly, and business confidence has become increasingly insufficient. On the whole, it is expected that domestic building materials prices will maintain a slight downward trend in the short term.

Hot-rolled coils: Today's hot rolling prices in 24 major cities nationwide fell slightly. The average price of 3.0 hot-rolled coils was 4,330 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the average national price of 4.75 hot-rolled coils was 4272. Yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Today's futures market fell slightly, market confidence was insufficient, and early-quote merchants' prices fell slightly. Downstream users have a strong wait-and-see attitude, procurement enthusiasm is not high, market transactions are generally poor, and market prices continue to fall in the afternoon. In the short-term, under the influence of weaker futures and poor turnover, market prices are still falling. In addition, today's billet market price fell 40 yuan / ton, the current carbon billet price is 3550 yuan / ton. On the whole, it is expected that the price of the hot-rolled market will fluctuate downward tomorrow.

Plate: Today, the domestic plate market price fell slightly. The average price of 20mm plate in 23 major cities nationwide was 4,407 yuan / ton, down 15 yuan / ton from the previous trading day. Judging from the current market situation, the steel mills have guided the price drop to once again increase the bearish sentiment of traders, and with the entry of some regional resources, the operational ideas have gradually shifted to shipping. In the afternoon, the price of northern billet was lowered by 40 yuan/ton, which weakened the current cost support of spot resources to some extent. Therefore, it is expected that the short-term domestic plate market price will maintain a weak operating trend.

Cold rolled coil: Today's national cold rolling prices fell slightly. Price: 1.0 national cold rolling average price of 4,721 yuan / ton, compared with the previous working day, the price fell by 8 yuan / ton. The main market price: Shanghai market 1.0mm WISCO coil plate offer 4670 yuan / ton, Guangzhou market 1.0mm anang steel coil offer 4700 yuan / ton, Tianjin market 1.0mm anang steel coil offer 4540 yuan / ton. Market: Today's price continues to decline, with a decline of 10-50 yuan / ton, of which Fuzhou area fell the most, down 50 yuan / ton. Today's futures oscillated downwards, billet prices continued to fall, market sentiment was pessimistic, merchants mainly reduced prices, but the transaction was not satisfactory. On the whole, tomorrow's cold-rolled prices fluctuate weakly.

Steel: Today, the domestic steel market price has dropped slightly. The average price of Gongjiao and H-beam has dropped by 10-20 yuan/ton, and the overall bearish sentiment in the market has increased. Specifically, the overall weakening of the section steel is 10-20 yuan / ton, the overall transaction has not yet improved, the intra-panel work tank continues to increase incentives, the steel mill mentality is more pessimistic, coupled with the new environmental documents in Tangshan area today, requirements The independent rolling mills executed the shutdown order. According to our website, due to environmental protection policies and the loss of profits and the market downturn, the sample manufacturers of Fengrun's billet-type steel mills stopped production and maintenance, and the downstream merchants waited for a strong wait-and-see attitude. The price of profiles in major markets in East China was lowered by 10-30 yuan/ton. As the futures market weakened again, the early market transactions were extremely light. In addition, the steel products lowered the ex-factory prices, driving the overall market sentiment biased to bearish. The overall market price was lower by 20-30 yuan/ton. Due to the continued sluggish demand this month, new resources have arrived, and the recent market inventories have increased, and the pressure on merchants has also increased. On the whole, the market performance at this stage is under pressure, but the turnover is not ideal after the decline, so the short-term market price may be dominated by consolidation.

Steel pipe: Domestic pipe prices have fallen today. In terms of varieties, the average price of welded pipes 4 inches * 3.75mm is 4375 yuan / ton, down 7 yuan / ton from the previous trading day; galvanized pipe 4 inches * 3.75mm national average price 5089 yuan / ton, compared with the previous transaction The daily drop was 28 yuan / ton; the seamless pipe 108 * 4.5mm national average price of 5263 yuan / ton, down 4 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day. In terms of pipe factory, Tianjin Youfa, Juncheng and Lida ex-factory prices were all lowered by RMB 20/ton, and Linyi mainstream seamless pipe factory hot-selling price was RMB 4,850/ton. In terms of welded pipes and galvanized pipes, due to the influence of high temperature weather, market transactions are generally fair, traders are competing to fall prices to stimulate shipments, and the market bearish atmosphere is strong. In terms of seamless pipes, market transactions continued to be sluggish, and traders still focused on the consumption of old inventories, and the replenishment enthusiasm was not high. It is expected that the market price of steel pipe will continue to fluctuate and run weaker tomorrow.

Futures: Today, domestic black commodity futures closed down across the board, of which iron ore was relatively strong, slightly slightly down; finished products fell slightly; second-focus was weaker and the decline was larger. Specifically: the market has recently tightened the funds for the shed reform project. This demand for building materials, cement and non-ferrous metals has formed a long-term negative, superimposed trade friction escalation, the central bank's targeted RRR cuts are less than expected, and the accumulation of short-selling emotions is released. On the other hand, under the environment of environmental protection and production restriction, the profit of steel mills is highly protected by policies. Under the background of deeper discounts, the space for further sharp decline in futures prices is limited. In the short term, the market remains weak. run. Taking the snail as an example, the daily line closed the long Yinxian line, the trend fell, the operation suggested above, the rallies short, the main position.