Domestic steel prices are once again high

The domestic steel market price was affected by the rumors of interest rate hikes in the capital market. The limited production limit of steel mills in Tangshan, Hebei Province was far below the market expectation. After the price surged last weekend and at the beginning of this week, Baosteel, Anshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. The large-scale steel mills such as Shougang and the small-scale price increase in October did not form a clear support for the market price, and the market mentality was relatively poor. As of September 17, the Lange Steel Composite Price Index reached 172.5 points, down 2.2 points from the same period of last week; Lange Steel Long Product Price Index reached 195.8 points, down 2.3 points from the same period last week; Lange Steel Sheet Price Index reached 144.4 points, down 1.7 points from the same period last week. After this week's adjustment, the prices of steel products in various regions gradually returned to rationality. The transaction volume of low-grade steel in some cities has been enlarged. The market price has been recognized by some small and medium-sized traders and end users, and the price has continued to decline. However, due to the suspicion of interest rate hikes in the domestic capital market, the stock market and futures markets are relatively weak, which is unfavorable to the overall market mentality. In the short term, domestic steel prices continue to fall, but the rebound is weak.

Construction steel: This week, domestic construction steel prices have risen sharply after a brief surge, and prices in Beijing and Tianjin have rebounded slightly near the weekend. Last weekend, this week's opening, the price of spirals in Beijing and Tianjin and other places rose slightly, but prices in most areas are relatively stable. Due to the overall market's skepticism about the impact of the power cuts and restrictions on steel mills in Tangshan, Hebei, the market price continued to rise and the momentum was insufficient. Last week, hundreds of billet-rolled steel mills affected by restricted electricity in Tangshan area resumed production in a relatively short period of time, which did not have a major impact on the supply of domestic steel resources, especially in North China. In addition, the output control index issued by the Tangshan Municipal Government to the 30 iron and steel, steel and rolled steel mills in Tangshan is about 45% lower than the normal output, but Lange Steel Network statistics only 30 steel mills. There are 36 blast furnaces with a total volume of 15,000 cubic meters, only 17% of the total capacity, far from the requirements of the Tangshan municipal government. As time went by, the total number of furnaces was gradually decreasing. As of Friday, the number of furnaces dropped to about 30, and some steel mills continued to resume production. Affected by this, the price of steel billets that rose sharply in the previous period basically returned to the level when the steel mills in Wu'an area cut power and the Tangshan municipal government announced the power cut policy. The price of carbon billet in Tangshan area returned to 3880-3900 yuan (ton price, The same below), the ex-factory price of small steel mills in Hebei Province fell from 4,300 yuan to 4,100 yuan, driving the price of construction steel in the country, especially in North China.

At the same time, it coincides with the news that the domestic market is rumored that the country may raise interest rates to curb inflation in the short term, resulting in the continuous decline of the domestic capital market. In particular, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 2,600 points again, giving confidence to steel futures and Lange electronic disk investors. Big blow. Among them, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2,598.69 points on Friday, down 64.52 points from the close of 2663.21 on Friday, a decrease of 2.42%, and fell 105.09 points, or 3.89%, from the highest point of 2,037.78 points this week. The rebar futures price continued to fall this week. The highest price of the main contract reached 4,541 yuan, and the lowest price reached 4,350 yuan. The price difference between the high and low prices was 191 yuan. The closing price on Friday reached 4,359 yuan, down 135 yuan from last week. The Lange electronic disk price trend is slightly milder than the steel futures. The highest price of the main line contract this week reached 4515 yuan, the lowest price reached 4340 yuan, the high and low price difference was 175 yuan, and the final closing price reached 4365 yuan on Friday. It fell 107 yuan on Friday. The weak performance of the capital market has accelerated the rate of decline in spot prices of steel products.

According to the market monitoring of Lange Steel Information Research Center, as of September 17, the average price of Φ25mm secondary rebar in the 10 key cities in China was 4268 yuan, down 84 yuan from the same period of last week and up 125 yuan from the same period of last month; Wuhan The market fell the most, reaching 130 yuan, Tianjin, Shenyang, Hangzhou market fell 100 yuan, Chengdu fell 90 yuan, Guangzhou fell 80 yuan, Beijing, Xi'an fell 70 yuan, Zhengzhou fell 60 yuan, Shanghai fell 40 yuan. The average price of Φ6.5mm high line in 10 key cities in China was 4,436 yuan, down 65 yuan from the same period of last week and 182 yuan over the same period of last month. The prices in Wuhan and Zhengzhou fell by 100 yuan, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Guangzhou and Xi'an. It fell 80 yuan, Chengdu fell 70 yuan, Shenyang fell 60 yuan, Tianjin fell 20 yuan, due to rising at the beginning of the week and less resources, the Beijing market high line price rose 20 yuan.

The inventory of construction steel in the East China and South China markets, which were affected by the policies of energy conservation, emission reduction and power limitation and production restriction, began to decline significantly. The decline of inventory in the dominant cities in the north is still not obvious. According to the latest statistics of Lange Steel, as of September 17, the social inventory of construction steel in 29 key cities nationwide reached 6,508,200 tons, a decrease of 180,400 tons from the same period of last week, a decrease of 2.7%. The same period of the month fell by 5.54%, an increase of 24.09% over the same period last year. The southern leading city Shanghai stocks were 581,200 tons, down 12,700 tons; Hangzhou stocks 555,000 tons, down 38,000 tons; Guangzhou stocks were 647,600 tons, down 71,700 tons. The northern leading city of Beijing stocks 505,000 tons, down only 0.03 million tons; Tianjin stocks 335,600 tons, an increase of 0.16 million tons. Among the 29 key cities, 18 stocks have declined, and 11 have increased, but the growth rate is relatively limited.

Plate: This week, the major steel mills concentrated on the product price period in October, in which Baosteel's October carbon hot and cold plate price was raised 150-200 yuan before tax, while canceling 150 yuan discount, WISCO raised 100 yuan before tax, Angang tax Before rising by 100-150 yuan, Shougang rose 200 yuan before tax, the pre-tax price of Angang and Shougang's carbon hot-rolled rolls reached 3,870 yuan and 3,900 yuan respectively, and after tax exceeded 4,500 yuan, which is higher than the current price of the local hot-rolled hot coil market. . However, due to the relatively small increase in the ex-factory price of the steel mill and the adoption of the month-end settlement policy by many steel mills, the price increase of the steel mills did not form a strong support for the price of sheet metal in various places. The reason for the price drop is basically the same as that of the above-mentioned construction steel. Worse than the construction steel situation, the inventory of plate materials in most cities in the country still maintains a relatively high level, especially the inventory of hot rolled coils continues to rise, bringing more and more pressure to the market.

According to the market monitoring of Lange Steel Information Research Center, as of September 17, the average price of 5.5mm hot rolled coil in 10 key cities in China was 4,324 yuan, down 72 yuan from the same period of last week. In the same period of the month, the price rose by RMB 74. The market price of Zhengzhou and Hangzhou fell by 120-130 yuan, Tianjin and Wuhan fell by 100 yuan, Shanghai and Beijing fell by 70 yuan, and Guangzhou, Shenyang and Xi'an fell by 40-50 yuan. In terms of inventory, according to the statistics of Lange Steel Network, as of September 17, the total inventory of hot rolled coils in 29 key cities in China reached 5.543 million tons, an increase of 23,600 tons from the previous week, an increase of 0.43%. It increased by 0.43% in the same period of last month, an increase of 44.62% over the same period of last year. This week, the market in the northern leading city of Tianjin was 419,000 tons, down 0.8 million tons from last week; 邯郸285,000 tons, down 15,000 tons. The southern leading city Shanghai stocks increased by 10,000 tons to 1.83 million tons; Guangzhou's 1,201,600 tons increased by 46,800 tons. The sharp increase in inventory in Guangzhou directly led to an increase in the national hot rolled inventory. Of the 29 cities, only 12 have a decline in inventories and 17 have increased.

In terms of plate, as of September 17, the price of 20mm medium plate in 10 key cities in China was 4,501 yuan, down 62 yuan from the same period of last week and up 90 yuan from the same period of last month. The market prices in Beijing and Zhengzhou fell by 200 yuan and 170 yuan respectively, Tianjin fell 70 yuan, Shanghai and Chengdu fell 50 yuan, Xi'an and Shenyang fell 40 yuan, and Wuhan fell 20 yuan. In terms of inventory, the inventory of medium and heavy plates in 29 key cities in China reached 1,692,700 tons, a decrease of 18,300 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 1.07%. The current inventory decreased by 1.32% compared with the same period of last month and increased by 9.17% over the same period of last year.

In terms of cold plate, as of September 17, the average price of 1.0mm cold-rolled coils in 10 key cities in China was 5,404 yuan, down 36 yuan from the same period of last week and up 46 yuan from the same period of last month. Shenyang market price fell 100 yuan, Beijing, Tianjin, Zhengzhou, Hangzhou market price fell 50 yuan, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Xi'an fell 20 yuan, Chengdu, Wuhan prices stable. In terms of inventory, the inventory of cold-rolled coils in 24 key cities in China was 1,359,200 tons, an increase of 17,200 tons over the same period of last week, an increase of 1.28%, a decrease of 2.26% from the same period of the previous month and an increase of 18.63% over the same period of last year.

At present, the domestic steel market has reached a relatively critical moment. After a short period of sharp rise, the prices of steel products in various places have approached the price before the introduction of energy-saving and emission reduction policies in early September and the restrictions on electricity production and restriction. The market price continues to maintain the current correction. There is a large uncertainty in the gradual halting of the trend and the return to the rising channel. The current production capacity of some steel mills in Tangshan area is far from the target set by the municipal government in early September. What measures will be taken by the Tangshan municipal government next time will be more critical, and it will be maintained in this way or directly in the Wu'an area. We are not aware of the extreme means of production suspension. In addition, 18 steel mills in the Wu'an area, which began production shutdown on September 5, will resume production on September 20-21, which will have certain negative effects on the domestic market. Capital market, whether the country raises interest rates or raises the deposit reserve ratio is difficult to say clearly next week. The domestic stock market and futures market are still facing greater pressure. Overall, the relatively negative factors in the steel market are still dominant in the short term. Unless the steel factories in Tangshan are forced to stop production by the municipal government, the domestic steel market prices before the National Day will continue to maintain a weak consolidation trend.

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