In November, the trend of Lumane’s early period could be summarized as an adjustment. After the market hit the high point range in October, there was a correction. The market as a whole showed a balanced trend. The market’s short position has gradually left, but the bulls did not As a result, the gains were once again expanded, and the market experienced a dramatic contraction in trading volume. As a result, the holding position was therefore maintained at about 540,000 lots. However, we see that the current focus of aluminum is still relatively attracting market attention, especially that the current copper price has not shown much. time. Devaluation of the US dollar in the international market is the focus of the current market Increased production but strong demand supports aluminum prices At present, although the output of aluminum has been increased due to the drop of alumina, London November 20 news: Preliminary data released by the International Aluminum Association (IAI) on Monday showed that the average daily output of primary aluminum in October (excluding China) Last month, it rose to 65,800 tons. In September, the output was revised to 65,300 tons. In October 2005, it was also 65,300 tons. In October (31 days), the total output was 2,399,000 tons, and in September (30 days), it was 1,955,000. T, in October 2005, it was 2.023 million tons. However, the current output can keep up with the market demand is the focus of everyone's attention. We have noticed that the world economy is still relatively stable, but the development of the world's transportation, the development trend of manufacturing light vehicles to reduce harmful emissions, and the aircraft will double the growth trend in the next 15 years. The market has a large demand potential. The continuous decline in inventories is a good testimony at present. London, November 27th: Preliminary data released by the International Aluminum Association (IAI) on Monday showed that the total amount of aluminum inventories held by smelters in Western countries (excluding finished products) fell to 287.6 at the end of October 2006 Tens of thousands of tons were revised to 2.828 million tons at the end of September and 3.229 million tons at the end of October 2005. At the end of October, the inventory of unprocessed aluminum metal increased slightly to 1.610 million tons, which was revised to 1.6 million tons at the end of September and 1.778 million tons at the end of October 2005. Chinese tax policy allows aluminum to be exported in another form Electrolytic aluminum enterprises are high-pollution, high-energy-consuming industries. The state controls the export of aluminum, steel, coal and other resource industries is reasonable. In April this year, the net export of primary aluminum fell to 36,000 tons, but in the following months, the price of high prices in London steadily rebounded. From January to August, the total net export of primary aluminum reached 382,600 tons. In order to curb this phenomenon, the country has once again adjusted its tariffs, but before the country adjusted the export tax rate for primary aluminum, we saw that domestic exports of processed products such as aluminum have gradually increased. From the perspective of the number of exporting companies, in the first quarter of this year, a total of 71 companies exported aluminum ingots nationwide, a decrease of 30 over the same period of last year, a decrease of 29.7%; and a total of 2,261 export enterprises of aluminum, an increase of 532, a rise of 30.8 %. According to the China Customs data, in January-August 2006, China's aluminum exports totaled 697,000 tons, imports totaled 444,100 tons, and net exports reached 252,900 tons. The current tax rate policy will further stimulate the export of aluminum profiles, which is still a support factor for aluminum prices. Domestic spot prices remain stable and premiums rise November is a month of confusing for China's aluminum prices, but it also makes people note that regardless of how the futures market is ups and downs, the spot market price is always stable at around 21,300 yuan/ton, even if the futures The market has declined. The spot price reduction is far from expected. The market maintains a high premium. We say that the current market is still the spot to support futures prices. The shortage of spot prices is the key to the current price. We see that the current downstream pipeline is doing a good job. The market will still be steadily clear. Shanghai Stock Exchange's low inventory may still trigger a round of squeeze We see that the current inventory of the Shanghai Exchange has been maintained at a relatively low level, which may be caused by the higher spot prices, but this is also a market concern, and the market may again pull one under the premise of a tight spot market. The wave forced the market, but at present it is still necessary to observe the degree of supply of the spot. The market should pay attention to this change. Backward forecast Aluminium has once again hit $2,800. Under the background of the continuous depreciation of the U.S. dollar, we still have no LME to stand at $3,000 and the current bullishness remains. 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We know that the U.S. dollar is the trigger for the metal bull market. The continuous depreciation of the U.S. dollar has caused some price panic in the market. In particular, the assessment of the global metal price positioning has made the market more concerned about the dynamics of the U.S. dollar. Due to the weak US manufacturing data, the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts will be strengthened. The US dollar fell to multi-month lows against most major currencies on Friday, and the US dollar index has fallen to almost 82. This position is more important. If the market can't hold in this position, the dollar will test the integer position of 80, which also means that the commodity price is once again being examined by the market.
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