At the International Machine Tool Association Leaders' Joint Meeting held during CIMT 2009 this year, the China Industry News reporter found that compared with the pessimistic expectations of foreign machine tool association leaders on the future market, the domestic machine tool industry is relatively stable, but it is still not optimistic.
At the beginning of the year, China Machine Tool & Tool Industry Association made a basic or slightly increased forecast for this year's industry operation. The recent research confirms this prediction. Wu Bolin, executive vice president of China Machine Tool Industry Association, told China Industry News: "In January and February, the decline last year was continued, and it was obviously improved in March and April, but there were signs of turning down in May. The future situation is difficult. Judging depends on whether the macro economy can recover and whether support policies are in place."
The global machine tool industry is in trouble
At present, the world economy is experiencing the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The world financial system has been destroyed, the industrial chain has been hit hard, and the real economy has suffered heavy losses. The developed countries are in a serious economic recession, and the economic growth of emerging countries and other developing countries has slowed down drastically, forming a difficult situation in which the global economy is generally declining.
According to experts' prediction, the world economic downturn is far from bottoming out. The impact of the global financial crisis on the real economy has gradually deepened, and the international machine tool industry is undergoing a serious impact. According to the American Association of Machine Tool Distributors (AMTDA) and the American Manufacturing Technology Association (AMT), in January 2009, US machine tool consumption was $94.95 million, a decrease of 59.2% from December 2008, compared to January 2008. The $338 million fell by 71.9%.
According to figures from the Japan Machine Tool Industry Association, total orders received in 2008 decreased by 18% year-on-year, and in February 2009, it fell by 84%.
According to information released by the German Machine Tool Manufacturers Association (VDW) on February 26, 2009, the utilization rate of production in January this year has dropped significantly, only 83%. The losses suffered by ordinary and standard machine tool manufacturers are particularly severe. According to the German "Business Daily" report, the German Machine Tool Manufacturers Association (VDW) estimates that the industry's production shrinkage will exceed 15%. This estimate shows that the situation will further deteriorate. Last year, Germany's orders in the fourth quarter decreased by 54% year-on-year. The most affected are the standard machine tools used in the automotive industry. The number of employed people in the German machine tool industry has decreased from 73,400 in October 2008 to about 67,000.
At the beginning of the year, the Italian Machine Tool Association was not optimistic about the 2009 forecast, predicting that domestic machine tool consumption in Italy will fall by 12.3% and machine tool exports will fall by 5.7%.
The machine tool industry in Eastern Europe is no exception. In 2009, the machine tool industry in the Czech Republic, Poland, Russia and other countries was also seriously affected by the financial crisis.
According to Taiwan's machine tool export statistics, from January to February 2009, the total export value of machine tools in Taiwan was 281 million US dollars, down 47.8% year-on-year. As an export-oriented Taiwan machine tool industry is in deep trouble.
All of the above indications indicate that the world's major machine tool manufacturers are suffering from the severe impact of the financial crisis, and this effect continues.
Professionals expressed cautious optimism
According to the statistics of China Machine Tool & Tool Industry Association, the industry's key enterprises (177 companies) in January-May 2009, the growth rate of industrial output value was: -35%, 11%, 33.2%, -2.0%, -2.8%; The growth in sales revenue from January to May 2009 was -41.5%, 11.0%, 29.1%, -5.3%, and 1.6%, respectively.
The above data shows that since 2009, the economic operation of the machine tool industry has declined sharply to a stable level, and the overall performance has stabilized and rebounded. However, the economic recovery is still in an unstable period. The impact of the financial crisis on the industry has not yet bottomed out, and unstable factors still exist.
Public opinion generally believes that 2009 will be a difficult year for the development of China's machine tool industry. The state's 4 trillion yuan investment to stimulate domestic demand plans, after the central funds are issued, the key depends on whether the local supporting funds are actually in place.
Wu Bolin told the China Industry News reporter: "At present, the overall feeling of market warming effect is not obvious, and the machine tool as a means of production has a lag period for market demand changes, so most professionals are cautiously optimistic about this year's economic operation."
According to the forecast data reported by 114 research companies, it can be seen that in the first half of the year, the total industrial output value and sales revenue of key enterprises in the machine tool industry will drop by about 10% year-on-year, and will be basically flat or slightly increased year-on-year.
In the investigation, relevant people of the association found that since the financial crisis, the contradiction of the exposure of China's machine tool industry is also very obvious, mainly: the contradiction between the leading products of the industry production and the national economic upgrading demand; the overcapacity of the industry's low-end products and high-end products The contradiction of insufficient capacity; the contradiction between the domestic high-performance functional components and the development of the host computer is seriously imbalanced; the scientific research plan has many achievements and the industrial application is not obvious.
Overall analysis, China's machine tool industry is dominated by the domestic demand market. In 2008, China's machine tool product export value only accounted for about 12% of the industry's total industrial output value. Although the international financial crisis has had a huge impact on China's exports, its impact on China's machine tool industry is still limited. Compared with the world's major machine tool producing countries, which are affected by the financial crisis, China's machine tool industry is relatively stable, and the major enterprises in the industry are basically in control.
The enterprises involved in the survey generally believe that China's national economy has developed rapidly and has formed the world's largest consumer market for machine tool tools, which is the basic barrier for China to withstand the impact of the financial crisis. The state has issued a series of related policy measures in a timely manner, forming a favorable external environment. In recent years, the adjustment of industry and product structure, as well as the capacity building of technological innovation, have laid a good foundation for resisting the impact of the financial crisis and played a major role.
Call for policy to be in place as soon as possible
As the future situation is still unclear, the machine tool industry has entered a difficult period of eight years, and industry companies have called on relevant state departments to issue policy support. The research team of the association summarized the following five policy recommendations on the basis of summarizing the voices of the company.
I. It is recommended that the relevant departments formulate and publish the development policy of the machine tool industry as soon as possible. Industrial development policies must be forward-looking, scientific and operational to guide the correct development of the industry.
Second, it is recommended that the government formulate supporting policy measures and focus on accelerating the development of high-performance functional components. Machine tool manufacturers are encouraged to use domestically produced functional components and users to purchase CNC machine tools that use domestically produced functional components.
Third, as soon as possible, the introduction of the CNC machine tool value-added tax first-return policy. It is necessary to expand the scale of government procurement, and encourage national key projects to order and use domestic machine tools, especially the first and first CNC machine tools. The VAT for self-produced CNC equipment is returned.
Fourth, formulate policies and measures to encourage enterprises to cross-regional, cross-industry, and cross-ownership mergers and acquisitions, properly solve problems such as resettlement of surplus personnel, debt approval and disposal, and distribution of fiscal and tax benefits, and provide support for interest-related loans for restructured enterprises.
V. It is recommended that the government further improve fiscal and credit policies, adjust the import and export policy of CNC machine tools, and encourage the export of domestic machine tool products. It is hoped that relevant government departments will strengthen their guidance on overseas M&A work and support for overseas M&A operations.
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