China's coal import and export policy adjustment space is narrowing

In recent years, driven by the long-term stable and rapid development of the national economy, China's coal consumption has maintained a strong growth momentum, coal exports have been declining year by year, and coal imports have increased rapidly. As of 2010, China's coal export volume has gradually dropped from 93.88 million tons in 2003 to 19.03 million tons, a drop of 79.7%, and China's coal imports have risen rapidly to 16.478 million from 10.76 million tons in 2003. Tons, an increase of 14.3 times.

Behind the tremendous changes in the import and export of coal is the continuous adjustment of coal import and export policies in recent years.

On the one hand, coal export policies continue to tighten. In 2004, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Commerce, and the General Administration of Customs jointly formulated the “Measures for the Administration of Coal Export Quotas” and began to implement quota management on coal exports. In the same year, coal export quotas were issued to 80 million tons, and since then, the coal export quotas have generally declined. In 2010, only 25.5 million tons of coal export quotas were issued. Although this year's coal export quota has rebounded, it has only 38 million tons. In the quota management of coal exports, coal export tariffs are constantly adjusted. On January 1, 2004, the coal export tax rebate rate was reduced from 13% to 11%; on May 1, 2005, the export tax rebate rate was further reduced to 8%; on September 15, 2006, the coal export tax rebate was formally cancelled; 2006 Starting from November 1, a temporary tariff of 5% on exports of coking coal will be levied; starting on August 20, 2008, a 10% temporary export tariff will be levied on all coal types. It can be said that it is under the dual regulation of quotas and tariffs that China’s coal exports have been declining year after year since 2004, until 2010, coal exports fell to 19.03 million tons.

On the other hand, coal import policies continue to relax. From January 1, 2005, the temporary tariff rate for importing coking coal was lowered to zero, thermal coal and anthracite imports were still levied at 6% and 3% of import tariffs respectively; from April 1, 2005, thermal coal imports were implemented3 % of the provisional tariff rate; starting from November 1, 2006, the temporary tariff rate for import of coal other than coking coal is uniformly reduced to 1%; and from January 1, 2008, all coal import tariffs are tentatively set. Lower to zero. Coal import tariffs have gradually declined until they are cancelled, which has played an important role in the continuous increase of coal imports in recent years.

At present, China's coal exports have been effectively controlled. If we want to further limit coal exports in the future, we can only further reduce coal export quotas or further increase coal export tariffs. At present, the coal export quota accounts for only about 1% of the domestic coal output. The impact of coal exports on the domestic coal market has been getting smaller and smaller. In the future, it may no longer need to adopt further strict policies to restrict exports.

There is a ultimate limit to controlling coal exports. That is to completely abolish exports, as long as the total elimination of export quotas or the increase of export tariffs can still be easily achieved. In contrast, due to the gradual increase of coal imports, coal imports are difficult to have a limit in the short to medium term. This leads us to some people thinking about encouraging coal imports and hopes that coal imports will continue to increase. As everyone knows, under the circumstance that China's foreign equity mining output has not achieved substantial growth, under the circumstance that import tariffs have been reduced to zero, China's coal imports will only rely on market mechanisms to adjust more, and there is little room for further policy development.

Some people may disagree that "there is little room for further policy development." There is no room for the reduction of import tariffs. Is it not possible that the value-added tax (VAT) of the import link can be adjusted? In fact, import value-added tax can not be easily reduced, even if it is "down" that is the first return. At this time, one might also say that it is not the same after the first signing, but also to a certain extent, to reduce the cost of imports and encourage the import role. Indeed, the importation of value-added tax after importation can also reduce import costs to a certain extent and play an important role in encouraging imports. Furthermore, the import value-added tax after the first levy has been applied in the process of imports of refined oil and natural gas. . However, the importation of VAT for refined oil products and natural gas can be collected first and does not mean that this policy can also be applied to the coal import process. Mainly because of the following differences between coal imports and imports of natural gas and refined oil: First, there is a fundamental difference between the main importers of coal, natural gas and refined oil. At present, most of the enterprises engaged in coal import in China are private-owned trading companies, and they are small in scale and large in quantity. The main importers of natural gas and refined oil are mainly PetroChina, Sinopec and CNOOC. If the import VAT return is to be carried out, the implementation of natural gas and refined oil is obviously much easier, and the coal import is relatively complicated due to the large number of companies and their small scale.

Second, the purpose of returning VAT on coal, natural gas and refined oil imports is different. The main importers of natural gas and refined oil, PetroChina, CNOOC and Sinopec are the main suppliers of refined oil and natural gas in the domestic market. The import value-added tax return is still implemented when the import price of refined oil and natural gas is higher than the domestic sales price. The main purpose is to reduce the import costs of these companies, rather than encourage them to further increase imports because the international market price Gao always needs a portion of imports to meet domestic demand. However, coal is not the same. The majority of coal importers are traders. Even if some coal companies directly purchase overseas, they are also arranging imports based on domestic and international market conditions. If the import price is higher than the purchase price in the domestic market, They will automatically reduce imports, and they will import only if the import price has a certain advantage over the domestic market price. Therefore, the purpose of returning value-added tax for coal import is obvious. It is to encourage trade enterprises to increase imports.

Again, changes in the import of coal, natural gas and refined oil in the short term will have different effects on prices in the international market. In the international market, there is a universally recognized crude oil trading price. Even if the value-added tax of the import link is partially returned, our imported companies will not change the import scale in the short term, nor will they have a significant impact on the international market oil prices. Although natural gas does not have the same globally recognized price as crude oil, China’s natural gas imports account for a very low proportion of international trade, and there are relatively stable trading partners. Natural gas import VAT refunds will not significantly increase the scale and price of imports in the short term. influences. Because of this, the domestic value-added tax that is returned to the importing company can remain within the company. Coal is different. In the last two years, China's coal imports accounted for more than 15% of global trade volume. China's import changes have a greater impact on the international market. The purpose of returning VAT on coal imports is to increase imports. If the VAT return policy is implemented, due to the decrease in import costs of import companies, they will inevitably increase imports, but due to the impact of China’s coal imports on the international market prices As a result of the increase in imports, it is very easy for international coal prices to rise, and the part of value-added tax that is finally returned to traders can easily be transferred to the hands of international sellers. Importers have not benefited from it. Although coal imports may increase, international coal prices have already risen at this time. Afterwards, domestic coal prices will rise, or import will fall again.

Therefore, the introduction of VAT on coal imports is not reliable, and both refined oil and natural gas are acceptable, but coal is not acceptable. There is not much room for further adjustment of coal import policy in the future.