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On April 6th, the reporter learned from China Construction Machinery Industry Association that in the first quarter of 2010, China's construction machinery market was extremely hot. The sales of major products increased significantly year-on-year, and the market demand is still rising day by day. It is expected to stand on April. Annual high point.
At the same time, the enthusiasm of producers is also rising. The reporter learned that some products of Xugong Group have been out of stock and out of stock in many regions, and Sany, Zhonglian and Liugong have also gained a lot.
According to the internal data of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, based on the consideration of the sales situation in the first quarter, the latest judgment of the association on the overall trend of the industry in 2010 has been changed from “pre-high and low†to “pre-high and stableâ€. Optimism is increasing day by day.
However, another group of statistics from the association shows that as of now, China's construction machinery exports are still sluggish, and the improvement is not obvious, which adds a little fog to the industry's annual trend.
The outbreak of the first quarter The reporter found from the latest statistics of the association that from January to February 2010, the sales of all major construction machinery products in China showed a significant increase.
Among them, the excavator accumulated sales of 16,603 units in the first two months, an increase of 55%; the cumulative sales of construction cranes reached 3,812 units, up 43% year-on-year; the sales of loaders reached 19,853 units, an increase of 36%; while the sales of forklifts and bulldozers were also respectively. Achieving positive growth of 62% and 43%. At the same time, some data in March further showed that this strong momentum is still continuing and intensifying.
These eye-catching figures confirm the pre-judgment of some industry players at the beginning of the year--the construction machinery market in the first half of this year will have an "explosive" market.
However, in the second half of the year, the policy may be tightened, and many industries are expected to be flat throughout the year. Why is there such a hot market for construction machinery?
In this regard, Su Zimeng, secretary general of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, told reporters on April 6 that the current favorable market situation is the result of a combination of factors.
First, although the national fixed asset investment declined slightly from January to February, the absolute scale is not small. Secondly, the market overlap brought by the follow-up market of the started projects in 2009 and the newly started projects in 2010 strongly boosted the sales in the first half of this year. Moreover, from the perspective of bank credit scale, the launch in the first quarter is relatively large. Figures show that China's loan scale exceeded 2 trillion yuan in January-February. If it is added in March, it is expected to reach more than 3 trillion yuan in the first quarter. According to the arrangement of the government work report this year, the annual credit scale is about 7.5 trillion yuan, and most of the investment will be concentrated in the first half of the year. In addition, from the perspective of local governments, the first half of the year, especially the first quarter, is also the high-density period of its investment. In addition, under the expectation that this year's economic stimulus policy will be withdrawn, it will increase the enthusiasm of local investment in this period.
Su Zimeng also said that in 2009, the construction machinery industry achieved growth, the company's efficiency was good, its own investment enthusiasm was high, and the expansion and market development efforts were also high. At the same time, this year's "Spring Festival effect" is not obvious, and many construction projects have not stopped, which will also help the construction machinery market to turn better.
Not only that, but the industry's low performance in the same period in 2009 is also one of the factors that must not be missed.
Can export be a big deal? However, this kind of popularity is somewhat "prosperous".
Some insiders pointed out that the fixed investment of 7.5 trillion yuan arranged by the state this year will be put in the ratio of 3:3:2:2 in each quarter. The calculation shows that the first quarter should invest 2.25 trillion yuan, and there are statistics showing that the national fixed investment in the first quarter of this year has exceeded 3 trillion yuan, which is greater than the previous arrangement. Therefore, it is not difficult to imagine that the scale of state investment in the next three quarters will shrink.
If it is the unexpected government investment that ignited the hot market of this round of construction machinery market, then the market will face adjustment in the second half of the year.
At the same time, the export sector, which is highly anticipated by the industry, is still in the doldrums, and the hope of reversing the low expectations in the second half of the year is still astounding.
According to the statistics of the association, the import and export trade volume of China's construction machinery from January to February totaled 2.24 billion US dollars, an increase of 18.9% over the previous year. The import value was 960 million US dollars, up 45.5% from the previous year; and the export value was 1.27 billion US dollars, only 4.8% higher than the same period of the previous year.
In 2008, China's construction machinery exports reached a record high of 13.422 billion US dollars, but after the baptism of the international financial crisis, exports in 2009 fell 43%, only 7.7 billion. In the same period, the national export volume fell by 16%, indicating that construction machinery is in the hardest hit. Among them, the export of two major mainstream products of excavators and loaders decreased by 63% and 48% respectively, and the export volume of bulldozers with more than 320 horsepower also fell by 60%. To a certain extent, the export of the whole industry fell into a comprehensive situation in 2009. Downturn.
Although all the powerful companies are making heavy efforts to build an international market, from the current data, the overseas market is stabilizing, but the signal of a strong recovery is not obvious, which is in stark contrast to the domestic boom.
However, Su Zimeng told reporters that from the perspective of the whole year, the international market will certainly grow. Although there are still many unstable factors, recent signs indicate that the share of China's cost-effective construction machinery products in the international market is gradually increasing. Even if the current export volume has not increased significantly, this has already been the construction machinery of China in overseas markets. A strong recovery has laid a solid foundation.
He told reporters that China's construction machinery exports are in a period of recovery growth in 2010, and it is expected that the annual export will increase by 20% to 30%, and is expected to reach 10 billion US dollars. At the same time, the association has raised the industry's expectations this year to a 15% increase (experts predict that the construction machinery industry will grow by 10% in 2010).
The inertia of the stimulus policy is pushing the current construction machinery market to exceed expectations.