Natural gas vs new energy: step forward

With the increase in the number of car ownership, the consequences of a large amount of exhaust emissions on the environment are emerging. The severe environmental situation and rising oil prices make energy conservation and emission reduction a top priority. The development of clean energy and the exploration of new energy have become the consensus of the world and have even risen to the height of national strategies.

At this stage, natural gas buses and new energy buses have become more and more important. How should the bus industry look at the relationship between the two? The "Commercial Automotive News" reporter interviewed some bus companies and industry experts to understand their views.

The conditions for the promotion of natural gas buses are ripe. "As a means of clean energy, natural gas buses have been started many years ago. Today, they are very mature technologies, and there is still a long distance between new energy and the market." Chongqing Jiaotong University Transportation Professor Wang Jian of the School of Transportation told the reporter of Commercial Automotive News.

At the same time, gas supply as the main obstacle to the development of natural gas passenger vehicles is gradually being overcome. The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” mentioned that the infrastructure construction of coal-based natural gas, coal-based liquid fuels, etc. should be carried out in an orderly manner, and industrialization should be promoted in order to increase the exploration and development of oil and natural gas. Actively develop natural gas resources in the five comprehensive energy bases in Shanxi, Ordos Basin, Southwest China, and Xinjiang, speed up the construction of import and export pipelines in the northwest, northeast, southwest, and offshore, and coordinate the construction of natural gas import pipelines and liquefied natural gas receiving stations.

“Currently, more and more gas stations are built, and the scope and density are getting larger and larger. The supporting facilities for natural gas buses are gradually being followed.” Li Tongsheng, deputy director of the Corporate Management Department of Zhongtong Bus, added. It is reported that CNPC, CNOOC and other companies are increasing the supply of natural gas and extending inland. It is expected that during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, the country will build 3,000 to 3,500 new natural gas filling stations and increase the gas supply capacity of natural gas for vehicles by 40 to 50 billion cubic meters/year. The proportion of natural gas utilization in the energy consumption structure will be The 3.9% increase to 8.3%.

At the user level, passenger and bus companies are currently mainly profit-driven business models. Although they also need to take responsibility for some energy-saving and emission-reduction activities, more consideration is given to their own profitability. The price of natural gas is lower than that of diesel, which can reduce the operating costs of operating companies and increase the efficiency of operating companies.

In addition, natural gas buses are not just limited to urban public transport but have also begun to be applied in the field of road passenger cars. “The technology is mature, the supporting facilities are gradually improved, and the operating costs are relatively low. Therefore, many bus users are very interested in natural gas buses.” Li Xiaosheng analyzed.

“Oil prices have been rising, and passenger transport companies have been subject to significant cost pressures. Natural gas has two major advantages: First, clean fuel; Second, economic efficiency is higher than that of diesel and new energy, and the cost is lower.” Suzhou Jinlong Marketing Planning Department Manager Hu Jiandu said: "In the next few years, natural gas will slowly replace some diesel vehicles."

It can be said that the favorable conditions for the development of natural gas buses have gradually matured, and there are obvious signs of start-up in the market. Bus companies are also fully prepared for natural gas buses. “At present, most domestic passenger car companies have reserves in this area, but only the number of product announcements. Zhongtong's natural gas buses are used in urban public transport and highway passenger transport, and sales are very good,” said Li Xiaosheng.

New energy buses are the direction of future development. To a certain extent, the new energy buses in the past two years are rapidly booming, and the country’s strong financial and policy support has contributed. The state vigorously supported and mobilized the enthusiasm of bus companies to develop new energy vehicles. In terms of new energy bus demonstration operations, Chinese passenger cars are in a leading or more leading position in the world.

However, the development of new energy buses is still at a stage of demonstration and promotion. The lack of mature technologies, high costs, and obstructed industrialization are all objective facts. Therefore, the new energy bus is currently limited to demonstration city operations, and is mainly used in the more public welfare urban public transportation. According to Min Zhenqing, deputy secretary-general of the China Road Society Bus Subcommittee and chief analyst of China Bus Statistical Information Network, new energy buses rely mainly on policy subsidies and are small-scale, “preceding and leading things”. The market is small and immature. .

“New energy bus countries have only framed 25 cities. Only these cities can enjoy energy subsidies for the country. Cities without energy subsidies may subject themselves to one or two or four or five vehicles to promote, but large-scale promotion is Impossible." Hu Jiandou told the "Commercial Automotive News" reporter.

"A lot of users are skeptical about the new energy bus's technical route and its future use and maintenance. This is inevitable," said Li Shengsheng. "Immaturity of technology makes it impossible for a new energy bus to have a big development in the future," Hu Jiandu added.

Inadequate technology and high purchase and operating costs have even made some public transport companies prefer to abandon financial subsidies and instead choose more mature natural gas buses. “Before there was a corollary: Some people think that when the price of oil rises higher, new energy vehicles, especially pure electric vehicles, have a market. In fact, you can see that the technological progress of new energy, especially electric vehicles, has not kept pace with oil prices. The rate of increase, despite the state subsidies, but the use of new energy buses is not enough to attract passenger car users." Wang Jian said.

In spite of this, new energy sources are undoubtedly the future direction of development. “Natural gas passenger vehicles are only clean energy and still emit carbon dioxide, but they only emit less carbon than diesel. New energy buses are different. It really can actually reduce fuel consumption.” Li Shengsheng said: “In terms of industrialization, new energy buses There may be a relatively big development in one or two years, and it is definitely a major development direction in the future."

“The new energy bus is an important direction of the national strategic plan. The country has been stressing that the future direction of development is new energy, especially pure electric direction.” Hu Jiandu told the “Commercial Automotive News” reporter.

The two will be difficult to be replaced by long-term coexistence. "Alternative fuel buses and new energy buses are two different aspects of development. We can't say that we should be ignorant and should develop in parallel," said Li Shengsheng. Zhen-Qing Chen also believes that the two are not a platform.

Hu Jiandu believes that natural gas buses and new energy buses should be multi-pronged. On the one hand, from the aspects of sales volume, market acceptance, and ease of promotion, natural gas buses are superior to new energy buses in terms of technology costs, resource distribution, and supporting facilities.

On the other hand, the new energy bus market is also slowly growing and developing. "Any company has not divided the priorities between the two. If you want to divide the main and subordinates, in terms of market mainstream demand, diesel vehicles are the most, followed by natural gas buses, and finally new energy buses." Hu Jian Both added.

"This depends on the market positioning of the company." Wang Jian told the "Commercial Automotive News" reporter. He believes that companies must first base themselves on the market, and the future market size of natural gas buses will still be subject to resource constraints. At the same time, the current major advantage of natural gas is that it is lower than traditional diesel prices. “We used to think that natural gas vehicles are more environmentally friendly than diesel vehicles. Now that the technology has been upgraded, the emissions of diesel vehicles have been well controlled and will be getting lower and lower. The differences between continuously improving diesel vehicles and natural gas vehicles will become smaller and smaller.” Wang Health added.

Since natural gas can only replace diesel in places where resources are available, the market size will be limited by resources in the future, and new energy is currently just a directional thing. Therefore, diesel will still occupy a large proportion of the entire energy structure. "There is no simple alternative relationship between the three. It will not be because after the development of new energy vehicles, diesel or natural gas vehicles will be replaced. They are only changes in market share," said Wang Jian.

Wang Jian believes that natural gas buses and new energy buses coexist. Studies in Europe have shown that diesel will continue to be the main energy source for the next 20 to 30 years, and China will not go beyond this judgment and framework of the entire European society and auto companies.

“In the next 10 to 20 years, new energy buses will not exceed 5% to 10% of the passenger vehicle industry. Due to the existing natural gas extraction and retention, especially in cities, as a clean energy source, The proportion of natural gas buses will grow appropriately and it should be around 10% to 15%, which is still the ratio under the government subsidies.” Wang Jian told the “Commercial Automotive News” reporter.

"At this stage, bus manufacturers must do real things. If they take the market, they must do a good job of natural gas buses." Wang Jian told the "Commercial Automotive News" reporter: "New energy buses depend on many key technological innovations. Many of our passenger car factories do not have this condition.” At this level, bus manufacturers should pay close attention to these key technology hurdles. Once major innovations happen, they can be quickly applied to the bus industry to promote The development of new energy buses.