Shortage of resources, steel prices

Domestic steel prices have rebounded since mid-September after experiencing a continuous decline for the past six months.

"October to November this time should be regarded as the best market this year. Under this situation, maybe everyone will earn more." An insider pointed out that steel stocks are digested obviously, output is controlled, exports Both domestic and domestic demand have improved, and the relatively low raw material prices in the previous period have given steel products a certain margin of profit.

As of November 15, 2012, the full manufacturing costs of rebar and hot rolling were 3,737 yuan/ton and 3,828 yuan/ton respectively. Among them, the profitability of rebar was RMB 210/ton, which was RMB 57/ton lower than that of the previous week; the profitability of hot rolling was RMB 363/ton, which was RMB 47/ton higher than last week.

Some time ago, “the profit of rebar was between 300 yuan and 500 yuan/ton. If deep processing, the profit could reach 700 yuan/ton.” A market analyst even believes that in October of this year, it is considered as “the profits of the steel industry”. period".

In October, the construction steel market prices continued to rise in September under the favorable stimulus of a series of large-scale investments such as the construction of railways and urban rails. Under this condition, in the past two months, the steel spot markets in many places across the country have appeared. Some of the specifications, some varieties of resources, the shortage of "good price" phenomenon.

On September 6, the average price of rebar in the country continued to decline to the lowest point of 3,550 yuan/ton, and on November 10, it rebounded to 3,950 yuan/ton. On November 22, the high price fell to 3,760 yuan/ton. "Although the rate of recovery is not too great, for the steel industry in the cold winter, this is already a glimmer of hope."

From the early to the middle of the month, construction steel products rose weakly. As a result, the hot-rolled coil board debuted, and it performed “a single show” and returned to the “four-character” mark. As of November 21, the average price of hot-rolled coils was 3866 yuan/ton, which rose by 653 yuan/ton in two months, an increase of 20.32%.

Previously, this species had hit a low of RMB 3,260/ton during the year beginning in September this year. The steady increase in the price of hot rolled steel also led to the consolidation of the cold rolling market.

The Opportunities and Challenges in the New Situation At present, the Shanghai spot market is still in a situation where resources are scarce. There are goods merchants who sell well and happy; while those who do not own goods can only watch the purchase information and sigh. From the perspective of market feedback, the current steel mills are still close to the resources and do not release the goods, which makes traders feel very troubled.

Recently, major steel mills introduced the main tone of December's price adjustment information, which means that the steel mill has not shipped yet. "We do not rule out the possibility that the market price will be set to a certain high and then set fire to it, but it is limited to speculation."

The short-term weak balance was broken, steel prices returned to supply and demand fundamentals in November, and the market’s biggest expectation was that *** could release positive signals, and after the conclusion of the ***, when the favorable expectations were lost, the rising momentum of steel prices weakened significantly. The species that had gained too fast in the previous period fell first. In just two trading days, the cumulative drop in hot rolled prices had approached RMB 100/t.

In the first two trading days after the end of the ***, the Shanghai Stock Exchange ** rebar main contract 1305 plummeted 122 yuan/ton in just two days; the northern steel billet market also followed the construction steel weakness down 70~100 yuan/ton. In terms of spot, the rebar and high-speed lines continue to maintain the decline rate of 20 to 30 yuan, and the steel prices of sheet metal also end the rally.