The photovoltaic market is now turning to Japan or will be competing

“In the past few days, the price of PV modules has stabilized, and the overall installation volume and shipments in the second quarter are relatively good, and may exceed the first quarter. What is more worthy of attention is the PV demand in Japan and China this year. There may be a big increase.” The management of a large-scale PV company in Shanghai told the reporter of China Business News yesterday on the phone.

China's 2012 Golden Sun Plan has triggered a new round of industry chase for the expansion of preferential policies for the photovoltaic industry and the upcoming tariff subsidy policy in Japan.

Japan: One of the key targets

In the 2011 global PV data published by IMS Research Consulting, it can be seen that Japan ranked fifth in the global installation of 24G watts last year, Italy and Germany accounted for 28% and 25% respectively, and the United States was 10%. The day is 8% to 5%.

After the US “double-reverse” investigation of Chinese PV companies, it has become very uncertain given to the growth space of each company.

Judging from the actions of many companies entering the Japanese region in the first half of this year, the importance of the country of Dongpu has gradually emerged. As of the beginning of May, Yingli Green Energy, Hareon Solar, Chaori Sun, JA Solar and Baowei New Energy have all entered the country.

After the "3.11" earthquake in Japan last year and the accident at the Fukushima nuclear power plant, whether "nuclear power" can become an important source of energy for Japan in the future will undoubtedly give the photovoltaic industry a new opportunity. It is expected that in the middle of this year, Japan will introduce a new tariff subsidy policy.

Under the same conditions, if the electricity price subsidy in Germany is 1 yuan/watt, then Italy is about 1.2 yuan, while Japan is about 2.5 yuan to 3 yuan. The Japanese market is quite attractive.

However, how to enter the Japanese market is another problem.

Prior to this, Suntech Power has entered the country's photovoltaic design and engineering field through the acquisition of Japanese local company MSK.

“Different markets will adopt different strategies,” said Jingao Solar’s ​​management. As Japan’s PV market is basically monopolized by local companies, JA Solar will choose to work with local companies to make high-efficiency battery components. Promotion. “We have three to five strategic partners in Japan, and their power plant systems use our component products directly.”

In addition, Japan's Kyocera announced that it will build Japan's largest solar power plant in Kagoshima Bay this summer; Sharp and Softbank will also be involved in the construction of power stations.

China: subsidies expand and push up the market

China's huge potential market also provides opportunities for companies.

Recently, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Science and Technology and other relevant departments issued the "Golden Sun Demonstration Project" in 2012. The project with a height of 1.709GW will receive a subsidy of 5.5 yuan per watt, and the total scale has been expanded to three times that of 2011. In addition to the preferential policies of subsidies such as 1 yuan/kWh introduced in the second half of last year, the Chinese PV market has been “ignited”. 1.709 MW of subsidies accounted for 2.5% of the global market, and it is estimated that China's overall installation this year will be 5 trillion to 6 MW. The Chinese market will likely account for one-fifth of the world's installed capacity this year.

However, since the price of PV modules has now fallen to the bottom, at around 0.6 Euro/W, even if the domestic power station enjoys various preferential subsidies, the power plant project supplier is still selling components at a loss. Therefore, some companies will adopt a shareholding method to build a power station to drive the company's overall profitability.

Jingke Energy, an unnamed person, pointed out that there are now two types of models to operate power station projects in the market: First, as a battery component company, it invests in power plants, including purchasing land, applying for approval, taking subsidies, and purchasing inverters. , use its own company components, install, go online, etc., and then sell it to a third party, let the other party run a project that lasts for 20 or 25 years; the other way, the component manufacturer still builds the power station himself, but Decades of operations have also been taken over by themselves.

In contrast, the latter model is more risky because it involves component manufacturers to obtain qualifications for power plant operations and the ability to operate a power plant.

The aforementioned management of JA Solar believes that no matter which model, it will bring financial pressure to the company. “From the early development of the power station to the operation, it takes an estimated one to two years. Assuming a 100 MW project, even if the company only invests 20% of the capital, there may be hundreds of millions of dollars of capital pressure. At present, many companies have high asset-liability ratios and it is difficult to obtain loans from banks. It is better to be cautious in power station development."