Unreliable income becomes the biggest concern for photovoltaic power plants

With the plummeting profits of polysilicon and battery modules, the upsurge of investment in photovoltaic power plants has risen.

The local power grid VS the National Grid Tianhua Sunshine 30MW project is a lucky child, through the local power grid, eliminating many approval links. Liu Ming, chairman of the Party Committee of the First Division Power Company of the Xinjiang Construction Corps, said: “The electricity and power grids in Alar City are integrated, and power generation and transmission and distribution are integrated. The first division will manage them in a unified manner, saving approval time and procedures. The power company has clearly stated that the Corps power grid will be connected to the national grid through the South Xinjiang branch network to eliminate excess electricity in Alar."

But not all local power grids have such good luck.

The State Grid and the local grid have always been pinpointed to Maiman, and there is no debate.

Mengxi Power Grid is a local power grid, which accounts for 60% of Inner Mongolia's more than 70 million kilowatts of power generating capacity, and its power generation far exceeds local demand. However, at present, less than 4 million kilowatts of electricity are exported, which is less than one-tenth of the power generation capacity of Mengxi Power Grid.

Yang Xi, deputy general manager of Mengxi Power Grid, said, “Since the power reform in 2002, the installed capacity of Mengxi Power Grid has nearly doubled, and the number of outbound passes has not increased. In order to send surplus power out, Mengxi Power Grid must It is necessary to connect 'Net to the Internet' with North China Net, the only large-scale delivery channel in the country's current grid. How much electricity can be output by Mengxi Power Grid is determined by the purchaser's Huabei Network."

Senior PV analyst Wang Runchuan told reporters: “Like the Tianhua Sunshine 30MW project, the integration into the local power grid is worthy of recognition, but the development of photovoltaic power plants must consider the power grid to absorb and digest the entire region.” Wang Shijiang, the China Photovoltaic Industry Alliance, said: “The local power grid is relatively fragile and has relatively poor stability. Local PV power stations are integrated into the local power grid, and the impact on the local power grid must also be considered.”

The two key issues lie in a stable return on profits. More and more Internet, financial, and real estate companies have rushed into the building of photovoltaic power plants. It is generally believed that as long as you can get the "Road", you can get a net profit of about 10% by selling only after setting up the station. And taking the entire department process will generally not exceed six months.

But profit may not be so easy. Wang Runchuan told this reporter: “Some aspects of the construction of photovoltaic power plants, such as site selection, design, and construction, are not particularly mature. In addition, capital is a big problem. 1GW's component production capacity of companies, sales of about 5 billion ***, More than one billion yuan of working capital will be enough, but investing 1GW of photovoltaic power stations will cost about 10 billion yuan, and self-owned capital will also be at least 2 to 3 billion."

Tianhua Sunlight chairman Su Weili said: “To really start China's domestic PV application market, there are still two key issues. One is whether, if it is not for its own use, whether the Internet part can be acquired in full? This issue is not yet conclusive. The second is how long the implementation date of the electricity price will be implemented and how long it will last. These two points are the major obstacles to the development of China's PV industry, making it impossible for companies to clearly predict the return on investing in a project. The yield is unsafe and shaped. Not a business model."

With reference to PV-developed countries, such as Germany and Italy, in addition to the government's generous grid-connected electricity price subsidy on the user side, the fixed purchase price also allows power grids and investors to easily calculate the benefits and costs, and at the same time helps guarantee the quality of the project and is more likely to encourage matching. Grid construction. This is obviously better than using administrative measures to force the full purchase of the grid.

Tang Xiaodong, an analyst at Monita Investment's Emerging Industries Research Group, believes that it is unlikely that the system's PV power-on-grid tariffs will be introduced. One reason is that PV costs are relatively high, and the second reason is that there is similarity after the explosion of photovoltaic power generation. The problem of wind power grid connection is difficult.

**The above two key issues are not implemented with the sale, and the direct impact on the photovoltaic power plant is the sale and sales.

As domestic commercial banks do not do long-term projects, it is very difficult for PV companies to get ** from domestic banks. Therefore, the ** is mostly carried out in Europe, but across the whole of Europe, companies overseas are not easy.

At the end of 2011, the domestic photovoltaic giant Yingli and Industrial Bank had tested “**Leasing”. Yingli buys solar power systems through **, etc., to install, maintain and meet the leaser's power needs, so as to collect rents and get tax deductions, in order to shorten the cash flow cycle and avoid the current cash and solar companies generally face the funding problem.

The United States, Australia, Japan and Singapore all have ** leasing and the market is optimistic.

Li Chengbiao, a researcher at the Industrial Bank Sustainable Finance Department, said: “Ensuring the benefits of photovoltaic power plants requires a lot of risks, and responding to risks requires clear policy subsidies from companies, reliable sales channels, real asset isolation, and the quality assurance of third-party power stations. However, the current conditions are not yet mature. The ** model needs to be followed by traditional innovation."

The sale of power stations does not seem to be that easy. Wang Runchuan said: “The sale of photovoltaic power plants in China is not yet particularly mature. Due to the restrictions on the issuance of FIT, the number of years of FIT is uncertain, and even the quality of the power stations is not particularly confident. Insurance ** and other potential power station owners also take a wait-and-see attitude. There are very few to buy a power station."

Wang Shijiang also has concerns: "The stable operation of photovoltaic power plants has only shown remarkable profits in 25 years. Domestic private capital wants to move fast forward and does not want long-term investment. The value of waiting for 25 years is not worth it. It is also a question that many people consider."

“The construction of power stations requires not a small investment, and the speed of payment for the development and operation of photovoltaic power plants is slower than that of manufacturing. If there is no strong financial strength and there is no rational and accurate estimate in the early stage, it is very easy to cause the capital chain to break. There will be greater risks.” Wu Junjie, chief editor of “Solar Power” told the reporter, “Once investment in downstream PV power plants solidifies cash flow, it will pose risks for PV companies, especially manufacturing.”

At present, there are two common modes in the market for investment and construction of photovoltaic power plants: one is BOT and the other is EPC. BOT is a model that combines construction and operation and then transfers it after a certain number of years as stipulated in the contract. This model requires a certain degree of financial strength and is favored by investors. The EPC is a combination of design, procurement and construction. It is more for other people to work and the requirements for capital are relatively low.