Partially cut off for hunger marketing forced chemical industry

“Phenol is now not available, and the installations in Harbin have to be overhauled. The supply in the latter period is very tense.” The Shanghui News reporter called the Sinopec Yanshan Petrochemical Sales Department on August 13 to obtain the above reply. Phenol "off supply" is not alone. Methanol, butadiene, TDI, PX, etc. have risen sharply in the near future. They are more or less related to the "hunger marketing" of manufacturers. The industry pointed out that during the traditional repair period of August and September, tight supply often occurred. However, after the manufacturers experienced the “close to the cost line” of production for more than half a year, the willingness to limit the price increase was unprecedentedly strong.

Business community chemical analyst Zhang Ming's overall judgment on the later period is: "Golden 9 Silver 10" market is tentatively set sail, in the future in the cost of good, demand rebound, external disk linkage and other factors to promote, the pattern of leading organic products will gradually evolve As a whole, the wave of the chemical sector rose.

The continued growth of the bullish factor "has risen in the near future!" Following on August 13th in the Shanghai Daily, the monthly methanol price rose by more than 10%, Zhongyu Information's methanol analyst, Cui Zhiming, again confirmed to this reporter on August 13th, "Tuesday, In some regions, the price of methanol has been raised by RMB 70-100/ton again, which is about 3%. The mainstream quoted price in South China has exceeded RMB 3,000/ton.”

According to the market view gathered by the reporter, the most concentrated feature of the recent rise in varieties is that there are tight situations in which supply is broken in some areas.

Taking methanol as an example, the current production companies themselves are basically out of stock, and the equipment in the northwestern region has been overhauled and entered the “seller market” in an instant. The stock of methanol at Jiangsu Port in East China has dropped to the lowest point since 2010, halving from 500,000 tons to about 250,000 tons. Butadiene, up 13% in one week, is also facing the major manufacturers Qixiang Tengda and Liaotong Chemical's centralized shutdown maintenance. The highest increase in TDI has exceeded 10% since this month. “TDI has a hard-to-find situation in South China and currently includes tax at 21800 yuan/ton.” Xiang Lijing, a TDI analyst at Business Society Chemicals, said, “Behind the 10% increase, it is still the main force Yantai. Gansu Yinguang focused on device overhaul."

After the market shifts to demand-led reform, the varieties that have been sharply increased in the previous period have been slightly fatigued recently. After the prices have risen, the supply has also improved. Therefore, the downstream digestion will take some time, whether methanol or TDI. It is possible to enter a high consolidation phase. The chemical market will be dominated by demand in the latter part of the trend, and the rebound of varieties with "rigid demand" will be more sustainable." Zhang Ming said.

Glyphosate is a typical case, and the price has skyrocketed in the last month, which is directly related to the large increase in the area of ​​planting genetically modified crops in South America. At present, 90% of China's exports of glyphosate, driven by the demand of the international market, promptly soared in just one month. Manufacturers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces indicated that there was still room for growth in the later period.

Zhang Ming pointed out in particular that fluorinated workers who have a need for improvement in their needs should be highly concerned. This year, all parts of the country continued to enter the “barbecue model” and injected a booster to the refrigerant industry. However, the prices of fluorinated industrial materials such as hydrofluoric acid, methyl alcohol, and trichloroethylene still do not rebound.

It is understood that in August, the refrigerant R22 industry operating rate remained at 80%, inventory from 40,000 tons in July to the current 30,000 tons, the refrigerant R134a industry operating rate is less than 40%, inventory from July 25,000 tons dropped to the current 20,000 tons. "The future air-conditioning, automotive and other industries will be driven by the demand for refrigerants in the outbreak will drive the overall plate up." Zhang Ming judged.

Zhongyu Information Chemical analyst Liu Dongyuan also believes that the current local bull market of chemical products is self-evident: “After long-term market adjustments, the chemical industry’s most products have a decline in social inventories, and downstream companies’ demand for short-term recovery has risen. The overall macro-environment has begun to pick up. Effective demand is expected to increase further under policy support. In the latter half of the second half of the year, the domestic industrial economy is expected to increase steadily, and the chemical product market is expected to enter a rebound channel in the overall outlook for production and sales.