The analysis of the trend of PA6 market in the first half of 2012

Business News Agency, June 5 spot price: In the first half of 2012 (January 4th - May 31st), the domestic PA6 market monitored by the company's Rubber and Plastics Branch had a significant decline. Taking the Bahl Chemical Fiber YH800 as an example, the quoted price in the mainstream market remained at 25,400 yuan/ton on January 4 and fell to 21,600 yuan/ton on May 31, a decrease of 14.96%, and the price was down by 25.52% from the same period of last year.

Industry chain analysis: 1, only in China's PA6 market, upstream caprolactam almost determines the domestic PA6 trend. Throughout the first half of the year, prices of CPL and PA6 basically maintained the same trend. Since late February, the market price of caprolactam in China, which was affected by the 2011 anti-dumping case of caprolactam, has gradually returned to rationality. PA6 has also been affected by this trend and began to turn in late February. Up to now, the market price of caprolactam has run out of cost for a long time, and most of the dealers in the industry still hold a low attitude. As a result, PA6 continues to decline. 2. Although the current stock of domestic PA6 market is low, the majority of manufacturers' inventory is high, and shipments are still difficult to break. Demand remains weak, and domestic PA6 manufacturers are currently under tremendous pressure. 3. The downstream nylon fiber drawing industry is about to enter the traditional production season in the third quarter. Compared with the off-season in the first and second quarters, the demand may be magnified. However, according to industry insiders, there is no news that there is a substantial increase in demand.

Industry analysis: 1. At present, in the engineering plastics field, the overall performance of all products is light, and the market lacks hype. 2. The added value of engineering plastic products is relatively high. At the moment when the overall environmental performance is low, the downstream can save the province and the demand is greatly reduced.

Market outlook: Overall, the industry's confidence in market expectations is insufficient, and the parade continues to be light, and the downstream continues to be weak. Therefore, the PA6 analysis of the business club Rubber Plastics Branch predicts that the PA6 will remain low.

Related listed companies: Mida (000782) and Sinopec (600028).